China’s Tasman Sea Drills: A Wake-Up Call for Australia's Aviation Security, By James Reed and Paul Walker
In February 2025, a Virgin Australia pilot's alarmed radio transmission revealed a chilling reality: Chinese naval forces were conducting unannounced live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea, catching Australian air traffic control and aviation authorities off guard. The incident, detailed in audio obtained by 9News, exposed vulnerabilities in Australia's ability to monitor and respond to military activities in international waters near its airspace. While no planes were harmed, the episode raises a critical question: what could happen if such exercises go unnoticed and a commercial airliner is accidentally shot down? Here I explore the significance of the incident, its implications for aviation safety, regional security, and Australia's need for stronger safeguards to prevent a catastrophic miscalculation.
The audio captures a Virgin Australia pilot's surprise upon receiving a direct warning from a Chinese naval taskforce about live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea, a busy air corridor between Australia and New Zealand. The pilot's query — "We just had a warning from a Chinese naval taskforce that they're doing a live firing exercise… is anyone aware of that?" — met with a startling response from air traffic control: no prior notice had been received. The Chinese flotilla, including ships like the Jiangkai-class frigate Hengyang, was operating within a 10-mile radius, firing at altitudes up to 15 kilometres, higher than commercial jets typically fly. An Emirates flight, closer to the danger zone, was diverted, as were 49 other flights, including a Qantas jet whose pilot sought clarity on the missiles' altitude.
The incident occurred in international waters, where China was not legally obligated to notify Australia or New Zealand. However, the lack of communication created a dangerous situation, with air traffic controllers scrambling to reroute planes based on incomplete information. The pilot's half-joking remark — "So if we go missing, you'll know what happened, hey?" — and the controller's reply, "Good luck," underscore the gravity of the moment, masked by levity. This was no hypothetical: the presence of live munitions near a major flight path posed a real, if low-probability, risk of disaster.
The accidental downing of a commercial airliner by military forces is a rare but catastrophic scenario with historical precedents. The 1988 downing of Iran Air Flight 655 by a US warship, killing 290 people, and the 2014 destruction of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine, killing 298, illustrate the devastating consequences of military miscalculations in or near civilian airspace. If a Chinese missile were to strike a commercial jet in the Tasman Sea, whether due to navigational error, miscommunication, or equipment failure, the fallout would be profound:
1.Humanitarian Tragedy: A typical commercial flight carries 150–300 passengers and crew. A shootdown would result in significant loss of life, likely involving citizens of multiple nations, given the Tasman Sea's role as a transcontinental route.
2.Diplomatic Crisis: Australia-China relations, already strained by trade disputes and regional tensions, would face a severe crisis. Even if accidental, the incident could escalate into a broader conflict, drawing in allies like the US, New Zealand, and potentially NATO members if their citizens were aboard.
3.Aviation Industry Impact: Confidence in air travel over the Tasman Sea could plummet, disrupting tourism and trade. Airlines might demand costly rerouting or enhanced security measures, impacting Australia's economy, which relies heavily on aviation.
4.Geopolitical Ramifications: China's growing naval presence in the Indo-Pacific, coupled with incidents like this, signals its intent to assert dominance. A shootdown could accelerate military buildups, with Australia and allies like the US under pressure to bolster regional defences, potentially escalating tensions toward conflict.
The probability of such an event is low, modern naval exercises use strict protocols to avoid civilian casualties, but the Tasman Sea incident reveals how lack of communication increases the risk. The Chinese taskforce's failure to issue a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) or coordinate with regional authorities, left pilots and controllers in the dark, relying on ad hoc radio warnings. A single miscalculation, such as a missile veering off course or a plane straying into the danger zone, could have catastrophic consequences.
The Tasman Sea drills are part of China's broader strategy to project power beyond its coastal waters. The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has expanded its operations, with ships like the cruiser Zunyi and oiler Weishanhu circumnavigating Australia in early 2025. These exercises, while legal in international waters, test the PLAN's ability to operate far from home, signalling to Australia and its allies that China can challenge regional security. Posts on X highlight China's advancements, such as the Type-055 destroyer's missile-reloading capabilities at sea, underscoring its growing naval sophistication.
Australia's response, led by pro-China Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, was timid. Albanese raised the issue with President Xi Jinping, emphasising the need for better notification to avoid future risks. China's ambassador, Xiao Qian, dismissed calls for an apology, asserting the drills posed "no threat." Yet, the incident follows other provocative actions, such as Chinese vessels colliding with Philippine ships near Scarborough Shoal, highlighting a pattern of assertive behaviour that unnerves regional powers. China obviously does not care.
For Australia, this incident compounds existing security concerns. The Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) was monitoring the PLAN taskforce, but civilian aviation authorities were caught unaware, revealing gaps in coordination. The Tasman Sea's proximity to Australia's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), amplifies the stakes, as does China's increasing presence in the Indo-Pacific, including drills near Taiwan and Japan.
The incident underscores the need for Australia to bolster its aviation and maritime security frameworks to prevent a tragedy. Key steps include:
1.Enhanced Regional Coordination: Australia must work with New Zealand, the US, and other Indo-Pacific allies to establish real-time communication channels for monitoring foreign military activities. A regional maritime and aviation alert system could ensure timely NOTAMs and reduce reliance on civilian pilots to relay warnings.
2.Diplomatic Pressure: Australia should push for international agreements requiring advance notification of live-fire exercises in international waters near major flight paths. While not legally required, such norms could reduce risks, especially in busy corridors like the Tasman Sea.
3.Improved Surveillance: Investing in advanced radar and satellite systems to track foreign naval movements would give Australia earlier warnings. The RAAF's monitoring efforts must be better integrated with civilian air traffic control to close information gaps.
4.Public Awareness and Preparedness: Airlines and passengers should be informed of potential risks in high-traffic areas near military exercises. Transparent communication can maintain trust in aviation safety without fuelling panic.
The Tasman Sea incident resonates with broader concerns about state power and public safety, echoing themes of "anarcho-tyranny" discussed in Britain's context. While Britain grapples with selective enforcement, neglecting petty crime while policing speech, Australia faces a different imbalance: prioritising diplomatic restraint over proactive security measures. The failure to anticipate China's drills reflects a form of complacency, where the state assumes international norms will suffice until a crisis emerges. If a plane were shot down, the public outcry would expose this as a failure to value citizen safety, much like Britain's neglect of basic law enforcement.
The Tasman Sea incident is a stark reminder that even routine military exercises can pose unintended risks to civilian life. While China's actions were legal, the lack of notice created a dangerous blind spot for Australia's aviation system. A hypothetical shootdown would be a humanitarian, diplomatic, and economic catastrophe, underscoring the urgency of proactive measures. By enhancing surveillance, coordination, and diplomatic efforts, Australia can mitigate these risks while maintaining its commitment to open skies and regional stability. The incident is a wake-up call: in an era of rising geopolitical tensions, complacency is not an option. Australia must act decisively to ensure no pilot's quip about "going missing" becomes a tragic reality.
"Newly released audio has revealed how Australian air traffic controllers and flights in the area reacted when a pilot discovered China was conducting live-fire naval drills in the Tasman Sea earlier this year.
The calls, obtained by 9News under freedom of information laws, for the first time shed light on the moment the alarm was raised by a Virgin Australia pilot about the exercises in February, before any Australian authorities were aware of their existence.
"We just had a warning from a Chinese naval taskforce that they're doing a live firing exercise… is anyone aware of that?" he asked.
Air traffic control confirmed that no notice of the drills had been provided, and asked the pilot if the Chinese flotilla had advised what altitude it would be firing to.
"Negative," the pilot replied.
"Just in that 10-mile radius of that position, that was it."
There was then a moment of levity between the pilot and air controller.
"So if we go missing, you'll know what happened, hey?" the pilot said.
"Good luck," the controller replied with a chuckle.
While the Virgin plane was outside the 10-mile danger zone, a nearby Emirates flight was far closer to the Chinese flotilla, and had to be warned by air control.
"The information I've received: a Chinese warship is… commencing live firing," the controller said.
"You will essentially fly right over the top of that position."
The Emirates jet was quickly diverted to the south of the flotilla – one of 49 flights forced to change course due to the military drills.
Another flight caught up in the incident was operated by Qantas, with its pilot asking how high the missiles would be flying.
Air traffic control didn't know the answer, but the Emirates pilot had learnt the Chinese ships would be firing up to an altitude of 15 kilometres – higher than what commercial jets fly at.
As the drills were conducted in international waters between Australia and New Zealand, China was under no legal obligation to notify either country of its activities.
However, the federal government has sought reassurances from Beijing that it will receive proper notice of any future exercises.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese raised the issue during a face-to-face meeting with President Xi Jinping during his recent visit to China.
"I said what I said at the time," Albanese said following that summit.
"It was within international law, there was no breach of international law by China, but that we were concerned about the notice and the way that it happened, including the live-fire exercises.""
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