CEO JPMorgan Chase: Coming Economic Catastrophe By James Reed

I have compiled items where there are predictions of coming economic doomsday by leading financiers. Of course, I know nothing about economics, and my opinion is therefore worthless, and in the past when I raised issues about runaway debt, the experts put this ignoramus in his place mighty quick, which is what I deserve. Yet, warnings by leading elites of coming economic catastrophe, a hurricane of dire forces, should at least be considered, if ultimately dismissed. After all, the global elites who run the show could be right, and these elites are not warning the little people like me, but fellow elites, it is just that the information gets out. So, here are extracts of what they are saying, regarding runaway inflation, food costs, food shortages, and other riders of Armageddon. With electricity set to double or more, never to ever come down, none of the costs really being met by low income concessions, I will turn off my fridge and live on tin food, such as tin vegetables and dog food, maybe dry cat food for a real treat. Some people I know are doing dumpster diving, but there is now competition for “quality garbage,” but that is too dangerous for an old guy like me. We are now in the Third World. It did not take long, did it? And those quoted below are saying that we have not seen anything yet.

“JPMorgan Chase boss Jamie Dimon urged investors Wednesday to prepare themselves for turbulence in the market in the weeks ahead – warning that extraordinary financial circumstances were creating a potential “hurricane” for the economy.

Dimon, the head of the largest US bank, said factors such as the Russian invasion of the Ukraine and the Federal Reserve’s move to tighten monetary policy due to decades-high inflation could stoke chaotic conditions in the market.

“It’s a hurricane. Right now, it’s kind of sunny, things are doing fine, everyone thinks the Fed can handle this,” Dimon said during a conference sponsored by AllianceBernstein, according to Bloomberg.

“That hurricane is right out there, down the road, coming our way,” he added. “We just don’t know if it’s a minor one or Superstorm Sandy or Andrew or something like that. You better brace yourself.”

The Federal Reserve is set to begin shedding its nearly $9 trillion in bond holdings this month in a process known as “quantitative tightening.” Central bank officials are also expected to enact another half-percentage point interest rate at their meeting later this month.

The Fed is cutting off the pandemic-era flow of cheap money and tightening credit as it aims to bring down consumer prices to acceptable levels. But the Fed’s hawkish policy shift has spooked investors who fear it will result in a recession.  

Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war has prompted further disruptions to global supply chains and contributed to an international energy crisis that has resulted in record-high gas prices for American motorists – with benchmark oil prices well above $100 per barrel.

“JPMorgan is bracing ourselves and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet,” Dimon added.

Dimon’s comments showed that his meteorological take on the markets has darkened further from just a few weeks ago, when he told analysts during a conference call that he saw “storm clouds on the horizon” for the US economy due to the unprecedented market conditions.

“I hope those things disappear and go away, we have a soft landing and the war is resolved,” Dimon said at the time. “I just wouldn’t bet on all of that.”

Dimon has expressed major concerns about the long-term effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. Earlier this month, he called the brutal invasion a potential “disaster” for the global economy that could trigger an economic recession.

“Basically, the Cold War is back,” the JPMorgan chief told Bloomberg. “I think the whole world learned something that we always knew – that national security is always the most important thing, but it kind of recedes in the background when we’re all doing well.”

Dimon added there was a “chance” that the Russia-Ukraine war could last for “years” – an outcome that would “completely rattle global energy markets, wheat markets, commodity markets.””

“The world must brace for apocalyptic food price rises in the face of surging inflation if Ukraine is unable to ship wheat and cooking oils out of its main ports because of a Russian blockade, the Governor of the Bank of England has warned.

Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday morning (AEST) that he was “very uncomfortable” because rises in inflation - driven by a series of external shocks, including the war and supply chain issues caused by lockdowns in China - were creating a “very big income shock” that could intensify in coming months and risk double-digit inflation before the end of the year.

“That is a major worry, and it is not just a major worry for this country, it is a major worry for the developing world as well. Sorry for being apocalyptic, but that is a major concern.”

Russia’s invasion of its neighbour sent wheat prices to a 14-year high in March, with global prices for grains, cooking oils, fuel and fertiliser rising at the fastest rate in 30 years as the conflict disrupts shipping in the Black Sea and the United Nations warns it will worsen a food crisis in poor countries.

Ukraine is a major exporter of corn, barley, sunflower oil and rapeseed oil, while Russia and Belarus - which has backed Moscow in its war in Ukraine - account for more than 40 per cent of global exports of crop nutrient potash.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has asked the Kremlin to allow the shipment of some Ukrainian grain in return for moves to help facilitate Russian and Belarusian exports of potash fertiliser.

Disruption to supply has also thrown poorer countries reliant on Ukrainian crops, such as Lebanon and Egypt, into social and political turmoil. India announced an export ban on wheat on Saturday in response to global shortages driving up prices. The World Bank forecasts wheat prices could rise more than 40 per cent this year.”

“A day after JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon accelerated his anxiety level for the future from "storm clouds" on the horizon to an imminent "hurricane", Goldman Sachs President John Waldron piled on with the pessimistic opinions.

At an investor conference this morning, Waldron joked that he’ll avoid “using any weather analogies,” but spelled out his fear that risks from inflation, changing monetary policy and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could kneecap the global economy.

“This is among - if not the most - complex, dynamic environments I’ve ever seen in my career,” Waldron said.

“The confluence of the number of shocks to the system to me is unprecedented.”

As Bloomberg reports, Waldron emerged as one of the harshest critics of the Fed from the banking sector earlier this year, when he assailed the central bank for what he perceived as its lack of autonomy and resolve to withstand the pressure to carry out measures needed to tame the hottest inflation in 40 years.

“We expect there’s going to be tougher economic times ahead,” Waldron said.

“No question we are seeing a tougher capital-markets environment.”

Finally, Waldron warned of a slowing in the merger market from the current "resilient" levels:

“That’s going to start to roll over because you see demand destruction, CEOs get a little less confident,” Waldron said.

“That’s a reasonable expectation, but we’re watching that carefully as a signal.”

The sudden volte face from so many of the elites is perhaps no surprise given the extremely abrupt reversal in the trend of global macro data - suddenly turning to serial disappointment since the end of April as QT loomed...

Finally, we couldn't help but notice that as the leadership of these two bulge-bracket-banks bloviate apocalyptic, their in-house permabulls (Kostin and Kolanovic) are dragging people in hell, buying every dip.”



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Tuesday, 09 August 2022