Australia's Immigration Outlier Status: Sheer Globalist Greed and Social Madness! By James Reed and Paul Walker
A recent opinion piece by Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Macrobusiness.com.au, titled "Australia is the immigration outlier", it argues that Australia's rapid population expansion through immigration sets it apart from other developed economies, straining resources and fuelling debates on sustainability. The piece draws on analysis from Alex Joiner, Chief Economist at IFM Investors, to highlight how this growth has outpaced pre-pandemic norms, exacerbating issues like housing shortages and per capita economic stagnation.
Van Onselen's core thesis: Despite pushback from policymakers and media, Australia's immigration-driven population boom — adding 45% more people in the first 25 years of the 21st century — dwarfs comparable nations. This isn't just numbers on a page; it's linked to real-world pressures on infrastructure, crime, wages, and living standards.
Key Data: Australia's Population Surge in Context
To substantiate van Onselen's claim, Joiner's work at IFM Investors provides granular insights. Since March 2020, Australia's working-age population (15+) has ballooned by 262,000 more than pre-pandemic trends projected. This isn't uniform: Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia saw the sharpest deviations, with Queensland alone +145,000 above trend. Nationally, population growth averaged 1.5% annually over the past decade, but when stripped out, private sector demand per capita has flatlined at ~0.2% growth, essentially a "lost decade" for everyday economic gains.
For a clearer picture, here's a comparison of recent net overseas migration (NOM) trends for Australia versus select OECD peers (data from ABS and OECD stats, adjusted to year-to-May 2025 where available), done by Paul who works in a stats type job. Australia's figures are indeed extreme:
| Country | NOM (Year-to-May 2025, '000s) | % of Population | Pre-Pandemic Avg (2015-2019) | Key Driver |
| Australia | 245.9 | 0.95% | 151.5 | Student visas, skilled migration |
| Canada | 120.4 | 0.30% | 95.2 | Express Entry, refugees |
| UK | 68.7 | 0.10% | 45.3 | Post-Brexit work visas |
| Germany | 52.1 | 0.06% | 38.9 | EU mobility, asylum |
| USA | 210.2 | 0.63% | 185.4 | Border crossings, family ties |
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS); OECD International Migration Outlook 2025. Note: Australia's 2025 NOM is a record high, up 62% from pre-pandemic levels.
This table underscores the outlier status: Australia's NOM rate is 3-15x higher relative to population size than peers. Over the year to May 2025, permanent/long-term arrivals hit 1.13 million, offset by 681,000 departures—netting a surge that's "off the charts," as van Onselen puts it.
Why It Matters: The "Madness"
Critics like van Onselen and Joiner argue this isn't benign growth — it's a Ponzi-like scheme reliant on endless inflows to prop up GDP, while eroding per capita prosperity. Key ripple effects:
Housing Crunch: Imported demand (e.g., renters via student visas) has driven rents up 15-20% in major cities since 2023, with supply lagging by ~200,000 units annually.
Economic Drag: Real non-mining sales grew 51% since 2002 nominally, but just 2% per capita after population adjustments. Productivity? Stagnant, as capital investment can't keep pace.
Social Strain: Surveys (e.g., from the Australian Population Research Institute) show 80% of voters want lower migration, citing overcrowded schools, hospitals, and roads. Public sentiment echoes van Onselen's view: only 11% back current levels.
The government's response? A 270,000 cap on international students for 2025, but van Onselen calls it too little, too late — NOM is already rebounding post-2024 dip. Echoing the "mass immigration madness" theme, this policy is seen as addictive: universities rake in fees, governments tout GDP wins, but locals foot the bill via inflated costs.
Broader Global Context
Australia isn't alone in post-pandemic migration spikes (Canada and the UK saw similar rebounds), but its scale and reliance on temporary visas make it unique. Unlike Germany's asylum focus or the US's border dynamics, Australia's system favours skilled/education pathways, yet it's yielded "perverse incentives," per a 2025 study on student-to-residency pipelines. Data models predict Australia's population hitting 40 million by 2060 (up from 27 million today), equivalent to adding three Sydneys in 35 years, without matching infrastructure. Kiss Australia goodbye long before that.
In short, van Onselen nails it: Australia's the outlier, and the debate's heating up, in the 11thhour. Time to end the immigration madness.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/12/australia-is-the-immigration-outlier/
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