Australia’s Fertiliser Crunch Hits Right as Winter Planting Kicks Off on ANZAC Day, By Bob Farmer, Dairy Farmer
Today when I write this (but you read it probably 27 April) — ANZAC Day, April 25, 2026 — marks the traditional start of the winter crop sowing window for many Australian grain growers, especially in southern states like South Australia, Victoria, and parts of New South Wales and Western Australia. Winter crops (wheat, barley, canola, pulses) are typically sown April–June, with many farmers aiming to get seed in the ground around this public holiday when conditions allow. The timing couldn't be worse amid the global fertiliser shock from Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Australia is highly exposed: it imports nearly all its urea (the key nitrogen fertiliser), with 60–72% historically coming via the Middle East. Domestic production has been zero since Incitec Pivot's Gibson Island plant closed, and the next major facility isn't due until mid-2027.
Current Situation: Planting is Underway, but with Major AdjustmentsNo widespread planting delays or halts reported today, but the season is already being reshaped by cost and supply pressure. Some regions (e.g., South Australia) even started earlier than usual after record March rains, gambling on the moisture despite input costs. In Western Australia, seeding progress is "all over the shop" due to logistics and fertiliser deliveries, but most growers now have starter fertiliser for initial sowing.
Farmers are actively sowing, but making tough calls:
oShifting to less nitrogen-hungry crops: More barley and pulses, less wheat and canola.
oCutting application rates or planted area. Wheat plantings are forecast down 7–12% (potentially a 7-year low). Some lower-profit paddocks are being dropped or left fallow.
oAnxiety high: A recent SA survey of ~800 growers showed rising concern over fuel + fertiliser access.
Price Shock and Supply SnapshotUrea prices have surged 60–100%+ since the conflict escalated (from ~A$675–850/t in Feb to A$1,350–2,000/t now). Diesel is also up sharply, hitting machinery use during sowing.
Stocks are tight but adequate for now: Enough for initial applications in many areas through May. Top-dressing (later nitrogen) is the bigger worry if shipments don't arrive in time.
Government response: Streamlined biosecurity for faster imports; underwriting deals with Incitec Pivot and CSBP; emergency 250,000-tonne urea shipment from Indonesia (about 20% of typical needs). Still ~1.25 million tonnes short overall.
What This Means for the 2026–27 Harvest and Your PlateReduced fertiliser use + smaller planted areas = lower yields expected. CBA modelling suggests wheat output could drop 9–25% depending on how much farmers cut back. Ripple effects:
Higher grain prices feeding into bread, meat, and processed foods later this year and into 2027.
Vegetable prices already flagged to rise sharply in some forecasts.
Bottom line for today: Australian farmers are out in the paddocks on this ANZAC Day doing what they do, getting crops in the ground, but under unprecedented cost pressure and uncertainty. The "ingredients" of the food crisis are very much in play here: supply tightness, price spikes, and a critical planting window colliding. The full harvest impact won't be clear until later in the year, but the decisions being made right now are locking in a tighter supply picture.
