Australia’s Coming White Minority: Sooner than You Think, By Professor X
Australia's population has undergone a profound transformation in recent decades, driven by high levels of immigration that have reshaped its demographic landscape. As of June 2024, 31.5% of Australia's 27.2 million people were born overseas, a proportion higher than at any point since 1891 and surpassing many other developed nations like the United States (14%) and the United Kingdom (14%). This shift, fuelled by post-World War II migration policies and the abolition of the sensible White Australia policy in 1973, has made Australia one of the most multicultural nations in the world. However, it has also sparked debates about cultural identity, social cohesion, and the declining share of Anglo-Australians and those of European descent. While precise figures for 2025 are speculative, current trends suggest that Anglo-Australians likely constitute less than 40% of the population, with those of European ancestry approaching 50%, raising questions about the nation's future trajectory.
Australia's demographic history is inseparable from its migration policies. In 1901, the Immigration Restriction Act formalised the White Australia policy, designed to limit non-European immigration and maintain a predominantly British population. By 1947, only 10% of the population was born overseas, with 98% of residents either Australian-born or from English-speaking nations like the UK and Ireland. The post-World War II era marked a turning point, with successive waves of European migrants,initially from the UK, then Southern and Eastern Europe, boosting the population. The dismantling of the White Australia policy in the 1970s opened the door to Asian, Middle Eastern, and other non-European immigrants, fundamentally altering the nation's ethnic makeup.
By 2021, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that 29.8% of the population was born overseas, with 48% having at least one parent born abroad. The 2021 Census also showed that 76% of Australians claimed European ancestry, a figure that has steadily declined since the 1960s. The top countries of birth for overseas-born residents in 2024 were England (3.2%), India (2.7%), China (2.1%), and New Zealand (2.1%), reflecting a shift toward Asian migration. This diversity is further evidenced by the fact that over 250 languages are spoken in Australia, with Mandarin, Arabic, and Vietnamese among the most common non-English languages.
As of June 2024, Australia's population stood at 27.2 million, with net overseas migration contributing 340,800 people in the 2023-24 financial year. This migration surge, particularly following the reopening of borders post-COVID, has driven population growth at a rate of 1.7% annually, outpacing many comparable nations like the UK and the US. The overseas-born population has grown faster than the Australian-born population since the 1950s, rising from 23.8% in 2004 to 31.5% in 2024. Western Australia leads with 34.1% of its population born overseas, while Tasmania has the lowest at 16.3%.
Ancestry data from the 2021 Census provides further insight. Approximately 33% of Australians identified as having English ancestry, 29.9% Australian, 9.5% Irish, and 8.6% Scottish, though these figures allow for multiple ancestries and likely include some overlap. Indigenous Australians accounted for 3.8% of the population (984,000 people), while Asian (17%), Arab (3%), and Pacific Islander (2%) ancestries have grown significantly. Claims on social media suggest that European Australians have fallen to 57.2% of the population, a 19-point drop in five years, but this figure lacks confirmation from official ABS data and should be treated with scepticism. However, the broader trend of a declining European share is undeniable, driven by lower birth rates among European Australians and higher migration from Asia and other regions.
Anglo-Australians and European Ancestry: Estimating the Decline
Defining "Anglo-Australians" as those with primarily British or Irish ancestry, and "whites" as those with European ancestry, we can estimate their current proportions based on available data. The 2021 Census indicated that 76% of Australians had European ancestry, but this figure includes second- and third-generation migrants who may identify as "Australian" rather than by their ancestral origins. Given the rapid increase in non-European migration, particularly from India and China, and the aging of the European-born population (e.g., Italians with a median age of 74 in 2024), the share of those with European ancestry is likely closer to 60-65% in 2025. Anglo-Australians, specifically, may well be below 40%, as suggested, given that English, Irish, and Scottish ancestries collectively accounted for roughly 50% in 2021, and non-European migration has continued to outpace European arrivals.
Comparatively, nations like the UK (86% White British in 2021) and the US (59.4% non-Hispanic White in 2020) have also seen declines in their majority populations, but Australia's shift is more pronounced due to its high migration rates. For example, the UN estimates that 3.7% of the global population (304 million people) lives outside their country of birth, yet Australia's 31.5% overseas-born population is more than double the OECD average of 14%. This rapid diversification sets Australia apart, even among other multicultural nations like Canada (23% overseas-born) and New Zealand (27%).
As seen in Britain and Austria, rapid demographic change can strain social cohesion. Australia's reliance on non-market sectors (e.g., public administration, healthcare) for job growth, mirrors Britain's path and raises concerns about fiscal sustainability. Public frustration, similar to Austria's 61% "lost cause" sentiment, is evident in debates over housing affordability, with net overseas migration driving demand in cities like Melbourne and Perth.
Socially, the shift away from a predominantly Anglo-Australian identity has sparked tensions. Critics argue that multiculturalism hasprioritised diversity over integration, leading to cultural enclaves and occasional unrest. For instance, rising crime rates in diverse urban areas and isolated incidents of extremism have fuelled anti-immigration sentiment.
The demographic shift has prompted calls for a more candid discussion about migration's impacts. Rather than clinging to the mantra that "diversity is strength," policymakers must address legitimate concerns about integration, infrastructure, and cultural erosion. Australia's post-1973 multiculturalism has been a global success story due to the deracination of Anglo-Australians, but it risks faltering if migration outpaces the nation's ability to absorb newcomers. Policies should choose skilled migrants who align with Australia's economic needs and cultural values, emphasising English proficiency and civic participation. The alternative, uncontrolled migration without integration, could lead to the social fractures seen in Britain and Austria, where public trust in institutions is crumbling.
Australia's migration-driven demographic shift has transformed it into one of the world's most diverse nations, with Anglo-Australians likely below 40% and those of European descent approaching 50% of the population. The world has moved under traditional Australia's feet. By the end of the 21st century, Anglo Australians, and indeed whites will disappear from what was once Australai under present policies. We have been warned about this for decades.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/07/australias-massive-migration-driven-demographic-shift/
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