At Long Last: A Preference Alignment Against Labor in Victoria!
The Victorian Coalition's decision to place One Nation ahead of Labor on how-to-vote cards is less a grand ideological embrace than a late recognition of arithmetic. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson confirmed the Liberals and Nationals will put Labor, the Greens and the Victorian Socialists at the bottom in most seats, with One Nation higher up. Exceptions will be considered case-by-case for candidates holding particularly offensive views, already tested by the dumping of a One Nation candidate over pro-Hitler comments. There is no formal governing pact; Wilson has ruled one out. Yet the practical effect is clear: both sides of the non-Labor spectrum are directing preferences against the incumbent Labor government.
This matters because Australia uses preferential voting. Primaries alone do not decide seats. When One Nation finishes third, its preferences historically flow strongly to the Coalition (around 65–75 percent in recent contests). The reverse flow has been weaker and less consistent. Aligning the how-to-vote cards reduces leakage and maximises the chance that anti-Labor votes consolidate rather than scatter. In seats where the Coalition is competitive with Labor, the gain is straightforward. In seats where One Nation is competitive and the Coalition is not, the arrangement can help One Nation overtake Labor on preferences. Either way, the Labor primary is under pressure.
Recent Victorian polling supplies the context. One DemosAU/Premier National survey put Labor's primary at 18 percent, One Nation at 21 percent and the Coalition at 33 percent, with the Coalition leading 56–44 on a two-party basis. Wilson has overtaken Premier Ben Carroll as preferred premier in at least one reading. Labor's long incumbency, internal issues and voter fatigue have created space on the right; One Nation has filled part of it. The Coalition's choice is therefore defensive as well as offensive: failing to preference One Nation ahead of Labor risks alienating voters who have already shifted and watching those votes leak back or exhaust.
Labor's response is predictable. It will portray the arrangement as a formal embrace of One Nation and warn of instability or extremism. Wilson's team will counter that the only path to changing government is a primary vote for the Coalition and that Labor, the Greens and the Socialists belong last. The distinction between a how-to-vote recommendation and a coalition agreement is real under Westminster conventions, but it will not stop the attack. Preference deals are ordinary politics; they become "deals with the devil" only when they disadvantage the side making the accusation.
The broader pattern is not confined to Victoria. Federally, One Nation's primary has risen sharply in several polls, sometimes matching or exceeding the Coalition's. Preference discipline between the two has improved in recent elections but remains imperfect. A state-level precedent that treats Labor as the common opponent rather than a potential recipient of residual preferences will be watched closely in New South Wales and nationally. Parties that continue to preference Labor above each other on the right risk repeating the leakage that has previously converted large combined primary votes into Labor victories.
None of this guarantees a Coalition majority or a clean One Nation surge. How-to-vote cards influence rather than dictate; many voters ignore them. One Nation's candidate quality varies, and the explicit exception for extreme views is an attempt to limit damage. Labor retains organisational strength, incumbency advantages and the ability to frame the contest as a choice between stability and chaos. Still, after years in which the non-Labor vote has been fragmented while Labor governed, the explicit prioritisation of One Nation over Labor marks a shift in practice. It treats the Labor government, not the minor party to its right, as the primary obstacle to be removed. In a preferential system, that is the deal that counts.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coalition-one-nation-poised-to-preference-each-other-ahead-of-labor/news-story/08023141e7069c50d6d70d3c55c6c0e8
