An Assault on Farming: The UK’s Livestock Reduction Plan, By Bob Farmer (Dairy Farmer) and Richard Miller (Londonistan)

The UK Climate Change Committee's (CCC) recommendation to cut cattle and sheep numbers by 27% by 2040, as outlined in its Seventh Carbon Budget, is a deeply flawed policy that threatens food security, biodiversity, and cultural heritage under the pretext of addressing methane emissions. Our critique argues that the plan is not only scientifically questionable but also a dangerous step toward centralised control of the food supply, particularly when juxtaposed against the unchecked carbon emissions of industrial giants like China.

The CCC's focus on livestock, particularly cattle and sheep, hinges on their methane emissions from enteric fermentation, colloquially framed as "burps and farts." Agriculture accounts for 12% of UK greenhouse gas emissions, with methane from livestock constituting a significant portion (49% of UK methane emissions in 2022). Yet, methane's role in climate change is overstated in this context. Methane is a short-lived gas, breaking down in the atmosphere within 10-12 years, unlike carbon dioxide, which persists for centuries. Livestock-related methane is part of a biogenic carbon cycle, where grass sequesters carbon, animals consume it, and emissions return to the ecosystem, a closed loop that contrasts sharply with fossil fuel emissions.

Moreover, the CCC's narrative ignores the ecological benefits of grazing. Fourth-generation farmer Alan Hughes highlights that livestock aerate soil, enrich it with manure, and promote deep-rooted grasses that sequester carbon. Studies, including those by ecologist Pablo Manzano, show that grazed lands can be carbon-negative when managed properly, with historic herbivore populations matching modern livestock biomass. The CCC's push for a 27% reduction in cattle and sheep, alongside a 25-30% cut in meat consumption and 20% in dairy by 2040, dismisses these benefits and risks destabilising ecosystems. Without grazing, dry vegetation accumulates, increasing wildfire risk, a far greater source of CO₂ emissions than livestock methane, as Hughes notes.

The CCC's plan is particularly galling when viewed against global emissions disparities. China, the world's largest emitter, produced 11.9 billion metric tons of CO₂ in 2022, roughly twice the emissions of the United States and over 25 times that of the UK. Its coal-heavy energy sector and industrial output dwarf the UK's agricultural emissions, which total just 47.7 MtCO2e annually. While China continues to expand coal plants and industrial activity with minimal global scrutiny, UK farmers face draconian cuts for a fraction of the climate impact. This double standard, as noted in posts on X, reeks of selective enforcement, where Western nations are pressured to dismantle their agricultural systems while industrial giants face little accountability.

The CCC's focus on livestock feels like a scapegoat when global emissions are driven primarily by fossil fuels, not farming. The UK's agricultural sector, occupying 70% of its land, is 17 times more carbon-efficient per acre than other sectors, according to the Tenant Farmers Association. Targeting farmers while ignoring China's unchecked emissions is not just unfair, it's a deliberate misdirection that undermines the UK's food security and rural economy.

The CCC's recommendations align with a broader trend of consolidating food production under corporate and governmental control. By advocating for plant-based diets and alternative proteins like lab-grown meat or insect-based foods, the plan paves the way for patented, industrialised food systems. Unlike cattle, which can be raised by independent farmers, synthetic proteins are controlled by corporations that stand to profit from a centralised food supply. As Jeff Dornik notes, "They can't patent a cow. They can't monopolise a pasture." This shift risks making consumers dependent on processed, corporate-controlled products, eroding the autonomy of traditional farming.

The push for a 35% reduction in meat consumption by 2050 and a 39% cut in agricultural emissions by 2040 also threatens rural livelihoods. Farmers like Alan Hughes warn of cascading effects: reduced grazing leads to soil degradation, loss of biodiversity, and diminished protein supplies. The CCC's suggestion to diversify into woodland creation or bioenergy crops ignores the cultural and economic role of livestock farming, which has sustained communities for millennia. The Bible's depiction of Abraham's herds or the American West's ranching culture, underscores this heritage, a way of life now at risk under the guise of "climate goals."

Rather than slashing livestock numbers, the UK could invest in practices that enhance agriculture's ecological benefits. Rotational grazing, improved manure management, and feed additives to reduce methane are proven strategies. The Scottish Rural College estimates that 29 on-farm measures could save 4 MtCO2e by 2040 without decimating herds. The CCC's own Agriculture Advisory Group advocates a holistic approach, emphasising soil health and biodiversity, yet these recommendations are sidelined in favor of blunt reduction targets.

The government could also address wildfire risks more effectively by reforming industrial forestry practices, which create fire-prone monocultures, rather than scapegoating farmers. Meanwhile, global efforts should focus on high-emission sectors like energy and industry, particularly in countries like China, where the impact would be orders of magnitude greater than penalising UK agriculture.

The CCC's plan to cut livestock by 27% is not about saving the planet, it's about control. By targeting farmers while ignoring global emission giants, it undermines food security, biodiversity, and cultural heritage. The policy's reliance on oversimplified methane metrics ignores the regenerative potential of grazing and the broader carbon cycle. As the UK pushes toward net zero, it must choose science-based, farmer-led solutions over top-down mandates that risk handing the food supply to corporations.

https://jeffdornik.substack.com/p/the-fake-climate-crisis-is-just-the