A Snowball Nuclear Bomb Effect? By James Reed

The idea that the first use of a nuclear weapon in modern warfare could trigger a "snowball effect," leading to widespread nuclear use, is a chilling but plausible scenario laid out in Michael Snyder's Substack article from May 8, 2025. Snyder points to the India-Pakistan conflict as a potential flashpoint, with both nations armed with roughly 170 nuclear warheads each and escalating tensions after India's airstrikes on Pakistan in April 2025. The idea of "breaking the ice" leading to "everyone popping one off," captures the fear that once the nuclear taboo is broken, it could unleash chaos.

Snyder's article warns that the India-Pakistan standoff, fuelled by India's airstrikes on alleged "terrorist infrastructure" in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, could spiral into nuclear war. He suggests this could be the first modern nuclear conflict, potentially triggering others (e.g., Israel-Iran, North Korea, or Russia-Ukraine).

India-Pakistan Flashpoint:

What Happened: India launched missile strikes in late April 2025, targeting what it called terrorist camps (e.g., Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed) in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, some linked to Osama bin Laden. Pakistan reported 26 civilian deaths, including strikes on mosques, and vowed "self-defence" actions, per Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's National Security Committee statement. India claimed "measured" strikes, avoiding military targets, but Pakistan's military chief, Khawaja Asif, warned on Geo News that "at any time a nuclear war can break out" if India persists.

Nuclear Risk: Both nations have similar nuclear arsenals, India with ~172 warheads, Pakistan with ~170, per the Arms Control Association. India's "no first use" (NFU) policy is shaky, with recent leadership hints at pre-emption, while Pakistan openly reserves first-use rights. Pakistani ministers claiming their Ghori, Shaheen, Ghaznavi missiles & 130 nuclear bombs are aimed at India, escalating fears after the Pahalgam attack.

Snyder's Take: He's correct that a full-blown war could go nuclear, especially if India invades and Pakistan feels cornered. A 2019 Rutgers study estimated 50-125 million deaths in an India-Pakistan nuclear exchange, with global cooling from a "nuclear winter" slashing crop yields; this is discussed at the blog today. Snyder's claim that this could spark a global recession aligns with expert warnings, like those from Bloomberg (April 2025), noting India's #5 economy status.

Accuracy: Snyder's alarm is grounded—tensions are sky-high, and Pakistan's explicit threats match Asif's rhetoric. But he overplays the immediacy. No evidence suggests either side is prepping nukes yet, and India's "restraint" statement aims to de-escalate.

Snowball Effect:

Snyder's Argument: Once one nation uses a nuke, the taboo breaks, making it easier for others, like Iran, North Korea, or Russia, to follow. He cites potential flashpoints: Israel-Iran (Iran also possibly nuclear-armed), North Korea's arsenal, and Ukraine's drone strikes on Moscow risking Russian tactical nukes.

Reality: The "snowball effect" is a known concern. A 2023 RAND study warned that a single nuclear use could erode deterrence globally, emboldening states like North Korea (50-80 warheads) or non-state actors. Snyder's Israel-Iran point is speculative, Israel has ~90 warheads, but Iran's nuclear status is unconfirmed (IAEA says no weapons-grade uranium as of 2025). North Korea's Kim Jong Un has threatened nuclear use in war, per SIPRI, and Russia's doctrine allows tactical nukes if its existence is threatened, as Snyder notes with Ukraine's May 9, 2025, parade threat.

Accuracy: Snyder's right that breaking the nuclear taboo could lower the threshold elsewhere, but it's not automatic. States might hesitate post-nuke due to fear of retaliation or global backlash.

Other Flashpoints:

Israel-Iran: Snyder's claim that Iran might have nukes via North Korea is unverified. The CIA and IAEA report no Iranian nukes, though Iran's 60% enriched uranium (2025) is near weapons-grade. Israel's 200-400 warheads make it dominant, but a conventional war could escalate if Iran's proxies (e.g., Hezbollah) overwhelm Israel, as Snyder suggests.

North Korea: Kim's 2025 ICBM tests and threats align with Snyder's warning. A U.S.-South Korea war could see nukes, per CSIS, but Snyder's "very real possibility" overstates current tensions.

Ukraine-Russia: Ukraine's drone attacks (three days on Moscow, per Snyder) are real, but Russia wiping Kyiv "off the Earth" is hyperbolic. Putin's May 2025 ceasefire talks suggest restraint, though tactical nukes remain a risk if NATO escalates.

Snyder nails the India-Pakistan risk, backed by Asif's nuclear threats and casualty reports (26 Pakistani civilians, 10 Indian). His "snowball effect" aligns with expert fears of eroded deterrence, and his global recession warning matches economic models (e.g., Oxford Economics, 2025). The article's data, military sizes (India's 1.24M army vs. Pakistan's 560,000), warhead counts, checks out with SIPRI and Arms Control Association.

Snyder leans apocalyptic, implying nuclear war is imminent across multiple fronts. India-Pakistan is tense, but UN mediation (April 2025) and China's neutral stance suggest de-escalation is possible. His Iran-North Korea nuke link is speculative. The "everyone popping one off" fear, while vivid, ignores deterrence's stabilising role, mutual assured destruction still holds for rational actors. We hope that they are rational.

https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/who-is-going-to-use-nuclear-weapons

"Will we soon witness the world's first nuclear war? Following nuclear-armed India's attack on nuclear-armed Pakistan, media outlets all over the globe quickly published stories about the possibility of nuclear war. In fact, this morning the main headline on the Drudge Report was "WORLD HOLDS BREATH" in all capital letters. Yes, it is entirely possible that a nuclear war could erupt between India and Pakistan. But will someone else use nuclear weapons first?

Bottom of Form

In the Middle East, a showdown is looming between Israel and Iran. We know that Israel possesses nuclear weapons, and there are some experts that are convinced that the Iranians have also acquired nukes. If an all-out war erupts between Israel and Iran, I have a feeling that both sides will be forced to show what cards they are holding.

If the Iranians do have nukes, they may have gotten them from the North Koreans. If a major war erupts on the Korean peninsula, and that is a very real possibility, the North Koreans would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons.

In Europe, the conflict in Ukraine definitely has the potential to go nuclear. The Ukrainians have targeted Moscow with drone attacks for three days in a row, and they are threatening to attack Russia's Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9th. If that happens, we are being warned that Kyiv could be wiped "off the face of the Earth". Let us hope that the Russians will continue to resist the temptation to use tactical nukes against Ukraine, because if that line is crossed any hope of peace with Russia will be completely gone.

Once one nation breaks the taboo on using nuclear weapons, it will be much easier for other nations to follow suit.

At the moment, the eyes of the world are on India and Pakistan. The government of India says that the goal of their airstrikes was to destroy "terrorist infrastructure" inside Pakistan…

India said it launched missiles targeting "terrorist infrastructure" in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, the divided Himalayan territory that India also controls a section of.

Pakistan's military said it shot down five Indian aircraft during the attack – a claim unconfirmed by India.

Pakistan said India's attack killed at least 26 civilians and wounded 46 more. India's army said at least 10 civilians were killed and 35 injured in cross-border shelling by Pakistani troops in Kashmir.

Following the airstrikes, India's Defense Ministry released a statement that emphasized that no military facilities in Pakistan were targeted…

"Our actions have been focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature. No Pakistan military facilities have been targeted. India has demonstrated considerable restraint in selection of targets and method of execution."

I think that India was hoping to avoid any additional escalation, but the Pakistanis are furious because a number of mosques were targeted…

In response to Pakistan's complaint that some of India's bombs struck mosques, India confirmed that it targeted mosques and madrassas (Islamic religious schools) that were headquarters for "training and indoctrination" by the terrorist groups. The Indian government pointed out that one of the madrassas used as a training camp by LT was funded by Osama bin Laden, the late founder of al-Qaeda and mastermind of the 9/11 attack on America.

Some of India's targets seemed chosen to make the point that JM, HM, LT, and other terrorist groups are operating openly in Pakistan, with either the indulgence or active support of the government. A few of the targeted facilities were remote terrorist camps hidden in inaccessible terrain, but others were obvious and located near major roads. All of them were large, capable of training hundreds of militants at a time.

If Pakistan strikes back, India will almost certainly respond.

Unfortunately, it appears that is exactly what Pakistan is planning to do…

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has ordered his armed forces to prepare a plan for "self-defense" with "corresponding actions" in order "avenge the loss of innocent Pakistani lives". The order was issued after an emergency National Security Commitee (NSC) meeting on Wednesday.

"Pakistan reserves the right to respond, in self-defense, at a time, place, and manner of its choosing to avenge the loss of innocent Pakistani lives and blatant violation of its sovereignty," the NSC readout said. "The Armed Forces of Pakistan have duly been authorized to undertake corresponding actions in this regard."

Pakistan's Government Security Committee has charged that India has "ignited an inferno in the region". These do indeed seem to be fighting words.

One of the sides is going to have to back down at some point or else this thing is going to spiral out of control very rapidly.

If a full-blown war erupts, India has a far larger military than Pakistan does…

India outpaces Pakistan in active military personnel: 1.24 million in the army, 149,000 in the air force, and 75,500 in the navy. Pakistan has about 560,000 army troops, 70,000 in the air force, and 30,000 in its navy. India also operates a 13,350-strong coast guard.

A conventional war between India and Pakistan would be truly horrifying, and we are being warned that it could cause a global recession…

A potential war between India and Pakistan could "push the world in to a global recession" in a matter of months, an expert has warned. On Tuesday, India fired a series of missile strikes on Kashmir, with Pakistan vowing to "respond", triggering fears of an all-out war between the huge nations.

Space race capable India currently hovers around number 5 in the list of the biggest economies in the world, just one place above the UK.

But a conventional war between these two nations is not the real danger.

If India's military started pouring into Pakistani territory, officials in Pakistan may feel forced to use nuclear weapons.

Most people living in the western world do not realize this, but both India and Pakistan have enough nuclear warheads to virtually wipe the other side out…

India has about 172 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan possesses roughly 170, according to the Arms Control Association. Despite their similar numbers, the countries diverge in nuclear doctrine. India publicly maintains an NFU doctrine, pledging to use nuclear weapons only in retaliation. However, recent rhetoric from Indian leadership has hinted at revisiting that stance. Pakistan has never adopted a similar policy and reserves the option of preemptive use.

Don't think that this can't happen.

In fact, the head of Pakistan's military just told the world that he believes "at any time a nuclear war can break out"…

NUCLEAR war could break out "at any time" if India continues strikes, Pakistan's defence chief has warned as his country teeters on the brink of a conflict with India.

Defence Minister Khawaja Asif gave the stark warning in an interview with Pakistani TV channel Geo News as tensions between the two nuclear powers continue to reach boiling point.

The minister said: "If they [India] impose an all-out war on the region and if such dangers arise in which there is a standoff, then at any time a nuclear war can break out."

A full-blown nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would not be anything like a full-blown nuclear exchange between the United States and Russia.

But it would still create at least a limited version of a "nuclear winter".

All of a sudden, it would become exceedingly difficult to grow crops all over the northern hemisphere, and we are already facing a global food crisis of epic proportions."