A 40 Million Population for Australia? This is the End, My Friend! By James Reed
Australia's population is on track to grow significantly in the coming decades, potentially reaching around 40 million by the mid-to-late 21st century under certain migration scenarios, if not sooner, with a white minority. This growth is largely driven by net overseas migration, as fertility rates remain low and the population ages. While natural increase — births minus deaths — may flatten or even decline in some projections, immigration is expected to be the main contributor to this expansion. However, it's worth noting that migrants also age over time, which could impact long-term demographic trends.
My focus here is on the composition of this migration and its potential implications for Australia's cultural and social fabric. High levels of immigration from any single source can present integration challenges, particularly if it leads to rapid changes in community dynamics, and ethnic profile. This discussion is not about individuals but about managing overall numbers to support effective integration. Open conversations on these topics are essential for maintaining a healthy public discourse.
Looking at the data, people born in China form a notable but not dominant part of Australia's overseas-born population …yet. As of recent estimates, around 655,000 Chinese-born residents live in Australia, representing about 2.4% of the total population. When including those of Chinese ancestry (such as Australian-born individuals or those from other regions like Hong Kong or Malaysia), the figure rises to approximately 1.4 million, or about 5.5%. In terms of recent migration flows, India has often been the leading source country, followed by China and others like the Philippines and Nepal.
That said, the scale and concentration of migration from specific regions can influence local communities. English is still the primary language spoken at home by about 72% of Australians, but Mandarin is the most common non-English language. In some urban areas of Sydney and Melbourne, Chinese-speaking communities are prominent in schools, businesses, and neighbourhoods, which can shape local environments. Observers note that when migration is highly concentrated, it may affect integration processes, especially if newcomers maintain strong connections to their home country's media and networks.
A key area of discussion is the potential for external influences tied to migration sources. For instance, Australia's relations with China have included economic pressures in response to diplomatic stances. During the 2013–2022 Coalition governments, actions such as criticising China's activities in the South China Sea, calling for an inquiry into COVID-19 origins, implementing foreign interference laws in 2018, and excluding Huawei from 5G networks, were followed by trade restrictions on Australian exports like barley, wine, coal, and lobster; now ended. These measures, which cost billions, were described by China as anti-dumping actions, but coincided with heightened tensions, leading to calls from some Australian businesses for more conciliatory approaches.
Additionally, there have been concerns about foreign interference, including through groups linked to China's United Front Work Department, which aims to build influence abroad. Australian security agencies like ASIO have highlighted risks of covert activities, such as political donations, candidate influence, or misinformation campaigns via platforms like WeChat. In response, Australia has strengthened foreign interference laws and oversight mechanisms.
On human rights issues, reports from international bodies and rights groups have raised alarms about practices in China, including allegations of forced organ harvesting targeting groups like Falun Gong practitioners and Uyghurs. These claims, documented by tribunals like the China Tribunal and UN experts, describe systematic abuses. Views within the Chinese-Australian community vary widely; many condemn such practices and value Australia's commitment to human rights, while others may face pressures due to family connections back home. Australia has supported international investigations and parliamentary motions on these matters.
As Australia approaches 40 million people, ongoing high migration from sources with differing governance systems could amplify certain voices on topics like human rights, economic ties, or regional security. This might challenge the preservation of Australia's liberal democratic values, in a non-white majority country. Past experiences with economic coercion underscore the need for careful policy management.
To address these dynamics, policies could include skills-based migration selection, security vetting, restrictions on foreign-linked lobbying, and efforts to promote shared Australian values. It's important to recognize that most Chinese-Australians are committed to their adopted country and contribute positively, often having sought out Australia's freedoms.
The path to 40 million will make Australia more diverse, urbanised, and connected to Asia. However, ensuring migration policies support infrastructure, integration, and national interests will help maintain cultural continuity. This isn't about alarmism but about proactive planning in a complex global environment. Transparent discussions, grounded in data, are key to navigating these changes effectively.
Just get used to all that comprises traditional Australia disappearing, since the immigration mania seems just too hard for Aussie to oppose.
