Michael Snyder argues in his Substack post that World War III is not looming but already in progress, characterized by a web of interconnected global conflicts involving major powers like the U.S., Russia, China, Israel, and Iran. He claims over half the world's nations are either directly engaged in warfare or funding proxy battles, drawing parallels to the scale of previous world wars but emphasizing the modern risk of rapid escalation to nuclear or mass destruction levels. Snyder lists two dozen recent developments to support his thesis, framing them as evidence of a "world at war" where diplomatic breakdowns and military actions are accelerating unchecked. Key conflicts and events highlighted include:
Iran's Internal Turmoil and External Threats: Protests against the regime have turned violent, with reports of over 217 deaths in Tehran from live ammunition, plus additional killings in other cities. The government has imposed internet blackouts, deployed foreign militias (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi groups), and faced arson attacks on state symbols. U.S. intelligence now views the unrest as a potential regime-changer, while President Trump has threatened military strikes if the killings continue, stating he'd "hit them very hard." Iran's foreign minister responded by declaring readiness for war with the U.S. and Israel.
Russia-Ukraine Escalation: Russia launched Oreshnik missile strikes on Lviv, destroying Europe's largest underground gas storage facility (over 50% of Ukraine's capacity) in retaliation for a drone attack allegedly targeting Putin's residence. A subsequent barrage on Kyiv left nearly 500,000 without power, prompting evacuation calls. Ukrainian President Zelensky urged Trump for decisive U.S. action against Russia. Broader U.S. moves include seizing Russian assets, like the oil tanker Olina from Russia's "shadow fleet."
Middle East Hotspots (Gaza and Lebanon): Israeli strikes in Gaza killed 11 Palestinians after a militant rocket attempt, amid accusations of ceasefire violations. Netanyahu claimed Trump greenlit an offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon due to dissatisfaction with Lebanon's compliance.
U.S. Interventions in Latin America and Beyond: Following the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, Trump announced U.S. control over Venezuelan oil operations, promising $100 billion in rebuilding aid and lower energy prices. Plans include airstrikes on Mexican drug cartels, labelled as "narcoterrorists." Trump also threatened to seize Greenland by force to block Russian or Chinese influence, and Colombian President Petro warned that U.S. attacks could ignite a civil war there. Snyder mentions potential U.S. actions against Cuba as well.
Snyder warns that public support for these interventions is high (e.g., 67% of Republicans back more military actions), and Trump's push for a $1.5 trillion defense budget signals preparation for prolonged conflict. He concludes that the world is sleepwalking into catastrophe, predicting that the use of weapons of mass destruction is inevitable once thresholds are crossed, fundamentally altering global dynamics.
Speculation on What Comes NextBased on the patterns Snyder outlines — escalating proxy wars, direct threats between nuclear powers, and aggressive U.S. foreign policy under Trump— the trajectory points toward further fragmentation and potential flashpoints turning into broader confrontations. In the short term (next 6-12 months), we could see intensified U.S.-led operations in Latin America, such as drone strikes or ground incursions into Mexico, which might provoke retaliatory cartel violence spilling over borders or even alliances with anti-U.S. actors like Russia or China for arms and funding. Venezuela's oil seizure could lead to economic warfare, with Russia and China ramping up support for anti-U.S. regimes, possibly through cyber attacks on U.S. energy infrastructure or blockades in key shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz if Iran gets involved.
In the Middle East, Israel's push into Lebanon risks drawing in Iran-backed groups more deeply, potentially leading to a multi-front war that pulls in U.S. forces directly — especially if Trump's "green light" rhetoric emboldens Netanyahu. This could escalate to airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, prompting Tehran to activate sleeper cells or missile barrages against U.S. allies, and in a worst-case, closing the Persian Gulf to oil traffic, spiking global energy prices and triggering recessions.
For Europe, Russia's strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure suggest a winter strategy to freeze out resistance, but if U.S. aid surges under Trump (as Zelensky hopes), it might force Putin into desperate measures like tactical nuclear use in Ukraine to deter NATO, crossing Snyder's warned "WMD threshold." This could cascade into NATO activation, pulling in European nations and risking strikes on Western targets.
Longer-term (2-5 years), if these conflicts merge — say, a Taiwan invasion by China amid U.S. distractions elsewhere — the result could be a true multipolar world war, with alliances shifting unpredictably (e.g., India siding with the U.S. against China, or Turkey exploiting Middle East chaos). Economically, expect supply chain breakdowns, hyperinflation in food and energy, and mass migrations from war zones. Politically, authoritarian crackdowns could rise globally as governments justify surveillance and conscription. On a darker note, if WMDs enter play (nuclear, chemical, or biological), we're looking at millions dead, irradiated zones, and a "nuclear winter" scenario that starves billions — substantiated by historical precedents like how localized conflicts in 1914 snowballed into WWI. Ultimately, without de-escalation miracles, Snyder's "world at war" evolves into a survival-of-the-fittest era, where superpowers carve up spheres of influence at immense human cost.
https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/we-are-living-in-world-war-iii-and