I typed my surname wrong, but I like the new me, so let it stay, it takes a lot of energy to correct it for me. That being said, in my near senile way, sped on by sessions of binge drinking, here is the dystopian vision of Umair Haque, London-based consultant, primarily from the Left, but still almost as black pilled as me. Interesting. I did type “fascinating,” but no, not that level of interest, just “interesting.”
https://eand.co/the-future-of-the-economy-is-even-more-dystopian-than-you-think-14342f2f7fe4
“Welcome to the Great Shortage of 2021. What’s in shortage? A better question is: what isn’t? All the AV gear I was looking at — cameras, soundcards, microphones, and so on — these things are backed up for months. But so are many, many other things. Food, cars, electronics of all kinds, clothes. I noticed the same trend recently in a totally unrelated space: I wanted to get my lovely wife a pair of shoes she wanted and a little bracelet as a present for, well, just surviving being a doctor during Covid. No luck. Sold out.
The shortages ripping across the economy are forcing up prices dramatically — and weirdly. The prices, for example, of used cars are skyrocketing. Clothes and food have gotten dramatically more expensive, from what I can see. And of course electronics — well, good luck getting them.
But this isn’t inflation. Sorry, armchair economists. I know that American pundits love to spout seriously on this issue — but they’re wrong. Inflation is a “wage price spiral.” This is something very, very different. Your income isn’t going up, at least not nearly as much as prices are. And prices are going up because of what economists call an “exogenous shock” — an act of God, or in this case, at least, an act of humankind.
These are shortages of catastrophe. They’re caused by what Covid did to global supply chains. It happened something like this — I’ll oversimplify to make the point easy to grasp. For a year or so, the world plunged into lockdown. Demand ground to a halt for many, many things. Retail stores closed in a tidal wave. And then as lockdown was lifted, demand began to rise. But by this point, global supply chains — which operate on a “just in time” principle — were wrecked, shut down for too long, unable to cope again with normal levels of wants and needs.
That might not sound like a big deal, but it is. For several reasons. First, many businesses have responded by profiteering. Sure, mom and pop businesses probably need to charge higher prices for a while to recoup their lost incomes. But big, established corporations don’t. Take my example of pro AV stores again. Their demand never really slowed down. What they do have is a bonanza — a massive backlog of orders for stuff that literally can’t be supplied fast enough. So they’re responding by charging full price — which is something that rarely, rarely happens in this industry.
Think how weird it is for electronics to get more expensive — for decades, they’ve only gotten less so. This is the first time in my adult life prices have risen for things like TVs and cameras and computers and whatnot.
That’s also why they were so rude to me. How dare I ask for the small, usual 10% discount?! It’s true — I’m not T-Pain. I’m not spending a million bucks. But in this market, that’s who gets privileged. That’s the second problem here — shortages exacerbate existing inequalities. The rich and powerful skip the line, or pay what profiteers demand, or both. But our economies are already vastly unequal — shortages are only going to make them more so, especially if you understand that this isn’t inflation’s wage-price spiral, but a more or less across the board sudden explosion in prices, thanks to the exogenous shock of a global pandemic.
But that “exogenous shock” — economist jargon for catastrophe, an act of God — is only the first of many, many to come.
So let’s zoom out from Covid now — and understand that a shock at the scale of Covid has triggered an explosive, sudden, economy-wide rise in prices that’s going to depress living standards for the next decade or so. Can you afford to pay 20, 30, 40% for the same stuff — without your income going up much? That’s where most of the economy is, and is going to be, and no it doesn’t make life affordable if your minimum wage goes up from $7 to $12, it just makes life slightly less unaffordable.
Covid’s ripped the global economy apart — but the next wave of shocks coming our way are going to be much, much bigger. Think about climate change. Electronics were already expensive due to microchip shortages as Covid increased demand, but then there was a fire at one of the main suppliers of microchips in the world.
What is climate change going to do? Cause megafires, megafloods, megatyphoons. And yet increasingly, our civilization’s production of stuff is centralized. Your iPhones come from a few megafactories, and so do all those big TVs, cars, even medicines, food, and clothes. That reflects the mega corporations who make megaprofits from all these products — centralization in production reflects centralisation in profits.
One fire took out the factory which supplies much of the world’s microchips. Now imagine what happens as climate change intensifies, and megafires, megafloods, and megatyphoons become the norm. All that centralised production is at severe risk. Maybe this year the iPhone factory burns down, maybe next year, the Tesla factory does. And so on.
But that — massive risk to production — is just one effect. There’s also a massive and heightened risk to distribution. Think how fast Covid shut down distribution — it’s one reason things are more expensive now. Sending things by boats and planes and trucks is harder in an age of lockdowns and checks and so forth. But now imagine what happens if a megatyphoon takes out this shipping lane, or that fleet of super carriers. Or what happens if a mega flood makes that entire region — which products have to travel through — impassable. Or what happens as ports begin to drown.
You’re beginning to get the picture.
We take stuff for granted. Getting it easily, with the snap of a finger, the tap of a button. Some random dude in a “Prime” van shows up the next day — and it’s here. That world is coming to an end now — but in a wierd, paradoxical way. The delivery guys will abound, because good jobs are emptying out of the economy — but at the same, shortages will abound, too, and you won’t be able to order the stuff to get delivered, just like now.
That’s a far cry from the world we — at least in the rich West — are used to. We’re the beneficiaries of this global economy — and we’re used to going to megastores the size of stadiums with every kind of imaginable product stacked high on the shelves. We don’t even question if that’s the way the world should be. We just take for granted that it is.
We’re used to living in an industrial civilization, in other words. Things get made in huge factories, they’re shipped to us in giant containers on massive super carriers the size of small cities, and there they’re stocked in megastores the size of small towns. We’re upset, anxious, frightened, when all this suddenly changes — hence the profiteering and hoarding both of the Covid age. All that is now coming to an end.
The world that we’re approaching now — the future we’re coming to — is one where production and consumption are both much, much less certain. In a sense, that’s good news. We’re depleting the planet’s resources too fast, abusing it, exploiting it. We do need to slow down. Even if by way of megafire, megaflood, and megatyphoon, breaking our civilisations supply chains like twigs.
The problems, though, are threefold. One, that means that basic goods aren’t going to get to people — we’re talking things like medicine, food, water. Not just the idle electronics I need for my life of relative privilege. Those shortages will have real and lasting effects, serious ones. That brings me to the second problem, which is that the impacts of those shortages isn’t going to be equally or fairly distributed. The already powerless are going to suffer most. Who’s not going to get clean water and clean air? Well, probably the people on the bottom of the ladder.
The third problem, though, may be the biggest, and it brings me full circle. All this reflects a certain distribution of power.
Who got richer during the pandemic? Billionaires did. More than 50% richer. Why? Because they were able to profiteer like crazy. Prices on Amazon, if anything, went up — as Matt Stoller has discussed. That’s because Amazon had a mega-monopoly, in a time of disruption. Hence, Bezos went from being mega rich, to being stupendously rich.
That brings me back to inflation. No, this isn’t inflation — the “wage” part of “wage price spiral” is still stuck at flat. This? This is inequality widening to levels that would make Rome cry. Did you get richer during the pandemic? I didn’t think so. Bezos, Gates, Zuck, and Buffett did. And still are.
If you understand all the above, then you come to a grim conclusion. The decades of catastrophe we face now — climate change in the 30s, mass extinction in the 40s, and the final collapse of our ecologies in the 50s — are going to cause inequality to grow even wider. Billionaires got richer during Covid — and they’re going to get even richer from climate change, then from mass extinction, then from ecological collapse. They’ll become the world’s first trillionaires, and then maybe even the world’s first quadrillionaires.
Why is that? Because all those waves of catastrophe are going to cause huge exogenous shocks. They’re going to create shortages and supply chain disruptions and massive falls in production capacity. But the world is still going to need stuff — electronics, clothes, medicine, lumber. Those who have power and money — billionaires — are going to be sitting pretty. They’ll be able to use the monopolies they’ve already built to profiteer like the world has never seen before.
Can you imagine a world demanding basic goods — only to meet massive shortages — and all its resources in the hands of a few billionaires? They’re going to jack up prices as hard and fast as they can — and grow their fortunes. I know — and you know — because that’s what they just did. In case you don’t believe me, don’t forget that Bill Gates is a key reason the world doesn’t have free vaccines that can be manufactured anywhere, or that Zuck is a key reason democracy’s dying, or that Bezos is a key reason we don’t have a functioning global economy at all. And so on. You don’t get to be a billionaire by having a functioning soul or mind — you have to kind of be a sociopath in the first place.
The waves of catastrophe heading our way are going to be the greatest in human history — and they’re going unleash the greatest wave of profiteering in human history, too. We had a tiny, tiny taste this last year of what happens when shortages of the basics hit nations — prices skyrocket, and the mega-rich get mega-richer, incredibly fast, because they control production, distribution, and supply of an economy’s basic goods. Now imagine a whole world growing short of basics — clothing, electronics, food, water, air, money itself — because good can’t get made, produced, distributed as easily, as fast, as efficiently as before. Every year, factories shut down, supply chains break, distribution networks fail, shops close — this year, its megafires, next year, the ocean’s uncrossable, and so on.
What happens in that world? Three things do. One, huge, huge profits are made, from these shortages. Because two, prices rise astronomically, and no, that’s not inflation, because your income never rises fast enough to match, and so you get poorer. That leads to three — a sense of unfairness and desperation, which fuels rising extremist movements, leads to a loss of faith in democracy, institutions, people, each other, the future. Bang. There goes the neighborhood.
That’s how a civilisation collapses. We’re on that path. Covid teaches us the lesson in no uncertain terms. We weren’t prepared for a relatively minor catastrophe like it — millions died, millions more still will, you got poorer, billionaires got richer, fascists rose. Sound like a future you want? Now take the next wave of catastrophes — climate, extinction, eco-collapse — and imagine how much faster and harder the very same effects are going to be, from death and suffering, to inequality, to you growing poorer in real terms no matter how much harder you work while billionaires get richer, to societies destabilising into factions of supremacists and crazies and fanatics while the number of sane people seems to shrink.
The future? It’s going to be a lot like the last year, except much, much worse, in pulsating waves of ruin, punctuated by short breaths of seeming normality — just enough to lull you back to sleep — because a world of nonexistent systems and institutions, only billionaires profiteering off misery, death, ruin, and collapse, is also one of intensifying economic, social, and political fragility, to the point of total implosion.
Covid’s a dry run for the future of catastrophe. The good news is this: there are things we should learn, about how fast and hard collapse happens, how fragile our societies are, economically, socially, politically, culturally. A few months of a pandemic — and they snapped like twigs. And if you think things are “normal” now, go ahead, again, and tell me why you’re paying 30% more for the same stuff — while billionaires who have more money than they’ll spend in ten lifetimes pile up even more of it. Billionaires who could end a pandemic multiple times over, but don’t lift a finger.”
Obviously, we here reject the rave on climate change, but the Leftist author has our agreement on the destructive role Big Tech and the 1 percenters are making, in exploiting the Covid plandemic for their profits. This piece was worth quoting since it gives us an idea of what sensible people with a different politics are thinking about a crisis which is engulfing us all.