The "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement, synonymous with Donald Trump's political base, has long been perceived as a monolithic force driven by nationalism, populism, and loyalty to its leader. However, recent internal conflicts reveal a movement splintered into competing "tribes" with irreconcilable visions for America's future. These tribal battles, particularly between the populist wing and the emerging tech elite, highlight a deeper division within MAGA than is often acknowledged. This blog piece explores these internal rifts, drawing on Pedro L. Gonzalez's analysis in The New Hydra and other sources, and compares them to divisions within the political Left to assess which side shows greater fragmentation.
The MAGA movement is no longer a unified front. Gonzalez identifies two primary factions: the Right-wing populists, epitomised by Steve Bannon, and the "tech right," represented by figures like Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and JD Vance. These groups clash over fundamental issues, including immigration, technology, and governance, creating a schism that threatens the movement's coherence.
The populist faction, rooted in the white working-class base that propelled Trump to victory in 2016, champions economic protectionism, stringent immigration policies, and a rejection of globalism. Bannon, a self-styled nationalist, has long advocated for policies prioritising "America First" principles, such as restricting H-1B visas and opposing technological overreach. His rhetoric, as seen in his attacks on Musk, frames the tech elite as betrayers of the MAGA ethos, aligning with billionaire interests over the working class. For example, Bannon's Breitbart once labelled Trump "Amnesty Don" to pressure him on immigration, illustrating the populists' willingness to challenge even their leader when he deviates from their agenda.
This faction's strength lies in its grassroots appeal, particularly among older, white, rural voters who feel disenfranchised by globalisation and cultural shifts. However, its influence is waning as Trump's inner circle increasingly includes tech moguls, leaving populists like Bannon outgunned and marginalised.
In contrast, the tech right represents a newer, wealthier, and more technocratic faction within MAGA. Figures like Musk, Thiel, and Vance advocate for deregulation, artificial intelligence (AI) acceleration, and a pro-immigration stance to fuel tech innovation. Musk's push for H-1B visas, which sparked backlash from populists like Laura Loomer, exemplifies this divide. Thiel, a venture capitalist with ties to Epstein and Palantir, and Vance, his political protégé, envision a future where technology reshapes governance, often at odds with the populists' nostalgia for a pre-globalised America.
The tech Right's influence is bolstered by direct access to Trump and his family. For instance, the Executive Branch club, co-founded by Donald Trump Jr. and tech investors like David Sacks, charges a $500,000 membership fee for elite access to the administration, signalling a shift toward oligarchic control. Vance's muted response during the Trump-Musk feud and his defence of Thiel's AI ambitions, further underscore this faction's growing dominance, even as it alienates the populist base.
The recent spat between Trump and Musk, as detailed by Gonzalez, encapsulates these tribal tensions. Musk's attempt to derail Trump's spending bill, followed by Trump's threats to cancel Musk's federal contracts, exposed a clash of egos and ideologies. Bannon hailed this as a populist victory, but Gonzalez warns that the tech right's influence persists beyond Musk, with figures like Thiel and Vance deeply embedded in the administration. Musk's apology and Trump's receptiveness suggest a potential reconciliation, but the underlying rift remains.
This feud mirrors earlier conflicts, such as Bannon's falling-out with Trump over immigration and family critiques, where personal loyalty to Trump often trumps ideological purity. The cyclical nature of these disputes, attack, apologise, reconcile, highlights MAGA's dependence on Trump as a unifying figure, but it also underscores the fragility of this unity when competing visions collide.
To assess whether MAGA's divisions are greater than those on the Left, we must examine the Left's own tribal battles. The progressive movement is similarly fractured, primarily between establishment Democrats and the radical Left, with additional tensions over identity politics and economic priorities.
The Democratic Party encompasses a broad coalition, from corporate-friendly moderates like Nancy Pelosi to democratic socialists like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC). These groups clash over issues like Medicare for All, student loan forgiveness, and Israel-Palestine policy. For example, the establishment's support for corporate interests often alienates progressives, who prioritise systemic change. The 2020 primary, where Sanders' campaign was sidelined by party elites, exemplifies this divide.
Identity politics further fragments the Left, with debates over "wokeness" pitting cultural progressives against class-focused Leftists. Some Leftists criticise the emphasis on race and gender as divisive, arguing it distracts from economic inequality, while others see these issues as inseparable. These tensions were evident in the backlash against Hillary Clinton's "deplorables" comment, which alienated working-class voters and deepened the Left's urban-rural divide.
Both MAGA and the Left exhibit tribalism, but their divisions differ in scope and impact. MAGA's rifts are more existential, threatening the movement's core identity. The populist-tech Right divide is not merely tactical but ideological, with irreconcilable views on technology, immigration, and America's future. The tech Right's financial and institutional power, evident in Palantir's AI surveillance plans and Thiel's political investments, gives it an edge, potentially sidelining the populist base that defines MAGA's electoral strength. This asymmetry risks alienating voters who see MAGA as a rebellion against elites, not a vehicle for them.
The Left's divisions, while significant, are less existential because the Democratic Party operates as a broader coalition with a shared goal of opposing Republicans. Progressives and moderates may disagree on policy, but they unite against a common enemy, as seen in Biden's 2020 victory. The Left's institutional structures, like unions and advocacy groups, also provide mechanisms for negotiation, whereas MAGA's reliance on Trump's personal charisma leaves it vulnerable to fragmentation when he wavers.
MAGA's divisions appear greater because they strike at the movement's ideological core and lack a unifying framework beyond Trump. The Left's coalition, though fractious, benefits from a shared opposition and institutional resilience, allowing it to absorb internal conflicts more effectively. For instance, while Sanders' supporters were frustrated in 2020, many still voted for Biden, whereas MAGA's populist base may disengage if tech elites dominate.
MAGA's tribal battles reveal a movement at a crossroads. The populist wing's declining influence, coupled with the tech Right's ascendancy, suggests a shift toward a technocratic, elite-driven agenda that could alienate its base. Gonzalez's metaphor of a "hydra" is apt: cutting off one head (Musk) does not slay the beast, as Thiel, Vance, and others remain entrenched. The movement's dependence on Trump as a mediator exacerbates this vulnerability, as his lack of ideological consistency allows tech elites to exploit his massive ego and access.
The Left, by contrast, faces ongoing tensions but maintains a broader coalition capable of weathering internal disputes. MAGA's narrower base and deeper ideological rifts make it more susceptible to collapse, especially if populists perceive betrayal by Trump or his successors. The rise of figures like Vance, who bridge populism and tech, may temporarily mask these divisions, but their long-term alignment with Thiel's vision risks fracturing the movement permanently.
The tribal battles within MAGA, between Bannon's populists and the Musk-Thiel-Vance tech Right, reveal a movement divided not just by tactics but by competing visions of America. These rifts, amplified by personal feuds and institutional power imbalances, show greater division than the Left's coalition, which benefits from shared opposition and structural resilience. As MAGA grapples with its Faustian bargain with tech elites, its future hinges on whether it can reconcile these tribes or if, like a hydra, it will grow new heads only to tear itself apart.