On October 27, 2025, John Leake, an author and commentator, proposed a provocative hypothesis about the murder of Charlie Kirk, who was fatally shot in the neck while speaking at an amphitheatre. The lack of an exit wound, a detail highlighted by a Turning Point spokesman as "a miracle," has fuelled speculation about the nature of the attack. Leake's theory suggests that Kirk was killed not by a conventional .30-06 Springfield cartridge, as initially assumed, but by a subsonic cartridge fired from a suppressed rifle, possibly from a low roof near a waterfall. This hypothesis, if true, points to a sophisticated assassination plot involving a coordinated distraction. I unpack this theory, explore its plausibility, and consider what it means for the ongoing investigation.

The Subsonic Hypothesis: A Silent Kill Shot

At the heart of Leake's theory is the absence of an exit wound in Kirk's neck, a critical clue that challenges the narrative surrounding the prime suspect, Tyler Robinson, who allegedly fired a .30-06 rifle from a rooftop. A conventional .30-06 cartridge, commonly used in hunting rifles, typically travels at supersonic speeds (around 2,800–3,000 feet per second) and generates significant kinetic energy. Such a bullet would likely pass through soft tissue like the neck, leaving both an entry and exit wound, especially at close range. The absence of an exit wound suggests a projectile with lower velocity, one designed to penetrate but not over-penetrate.

Leake proposes that the fatal shot was delivered by a subsonic cartridge, likely a .30-caliber round, such as a .308 or .300 Blackout, loaded with a small charge of fast-burning powder to keep its velocity below the speed of sound (approximately 1,125 feet per second at sea level). Subsonic ammunition, when paired with a suppressor, produces a significantly quieter shot, making it ideal for a covert assassination. Leake recounts his own experience firing a suppressed .308 rifle at 150 yards, noting the muffled sound and accuracy sufficient to hit a human-sized target. In Kirk's case, a subsonic bullet could have penetrated the neck, ruptured the carotid artery, and remained lodged in the tissue, explaining the lack of an exit wound.

The Sniper's Nest: A Hidden Vantage Point

Leake suggests the assassin may have fired from a low roof behind a waterfall, concealed by trees. This location, close to the amphitheatre, would provide cover and a clear line of sight to Kirk. The proximity, potentially within 100–200 yards, aligns with the effective range of a suppressed, subsonic rifle equipped with a high-quality scope. The waterfall's ambient noise could further mask the muted report of a suppressed shot, making it nearly imperceptible to the audience or security personnel.

In contrast, the alleged shooter, Tyler Robinson, was positioned on a more distant rooftop, firing a loud, supersonic .30-06 cartridge. Leake hypothesises that this shot was a deliberate distraction, timed to coincide with the subsonic kill shot. The .30-06, with its characteristic sonic boom, would draw attention to Robinson's position, while the actual assassin escaped notice. Leake notes that a .30-06 bullet fired at an elevated angle could travel 2.6 miles and land in Utah Lake, leaving no recoverable evidence of the decoy shot. This coordination suggests a level of planning and sophistication uncommon in lone-wolf attacks.

The Role of the Decoy Shooter

The idea of a second shooter acting as a decoy introduces a layer of complexity to the case. A supersonic .30-06 cartridge produces a loud report and a sonic crack as the bullet breaks the sound barrier, instantly alerting bystanders to the direction of the shot. By contrast, a subsonic shot from a suppressed rifle would be far less noticeable, especially in an outdoor setting with background noise like a waterfall. The decoy shooter's role would be to create chaos and misdirect investigators, allowing the true assassin to escape undetected. This tactic, while elaborate, is not unprecedented in assassination plots, where misdirection can buy critical time for the perpetrator.

The Medical Examiner's Silence: A Missing Piece

Leake raises a critical point: the Utah Department of Health and Human Services Office of the Medical Examiner has not released preliminary findings, despite the FBI's confirmation that Kirk was killed by a gunshot to the neck and Robinson's detention as the prime suspect. In a high-profile case like this, the absence of details about the bullet's calibre or characteristics is unusual. A subsonic .30-caliber bullet, such as a heavy soft-point round, should have been recovered during the autopsy, as it would likely remain lodged in the neck. Confirming the bullet's type could either support or refute Leake's hypothesis, yet the lack of transparency fuels speculation.

Autopsy reports and death certificates are not public records in Utah, but law enforcement could release basic details to clarify the narrative. For example, stating whether the bullet was a .30-06 or a different calibre would help dispel theories of a second shooter. The silence from officials leaves room for hypotheses like Leake's to gain traction, as the public and analysts piece together clues from limited information.

Plausibility and Challenges

The subsonic hit theory is compelling for several reasons. First, it accounts for the lack of an exit wound, which is inconsistent with a high-velocity .30-06 round. Second, the use of a suppressed, subsonic rifle aligns with the stealth required for an assassination in a public setting. Third, the proposed sniper's nest near the waterfall is a plausible vantage point, offering concealment and proximity. The decoy shooter hypothesis, while complex, explains how attention was drawn away from the true assassin.

However, the theory faces challenges. Coordinating two shooters requires significant planning, communication, and trust, increasing the risk of exposure. The assassin would need precise timing to ensure the subsonic shot coincided with the decoy's louder report. Additionally, the low roof behind the waterfall, while concealed, would need to be accessible without drawing attention from security or bystanders. Finally, the absence of forensic evidence (e.g., a second bullet or shell casing) complicates the theory, as investigators would need to recover the subsonic bullet to confirm its calibre and characteristics.

Implications for the Investigation

If Leake's hypothesis is correct, the Charlie Kirk murder was not a straightforward act by a lone gunman but a meticulously planned assassination. Investigators should focus on several key areas:

1.Autopsy Evidence: The medical examiner must confirm the bullet's calibre and type. A subsonic .30-caliber bullet would support Leake's theory, while a .30-06 would align with the current narrative implicating Robinson.

2.Crime Scene Analysis: The low roof behind the waterfall should be examined for evidence of a shooter's presence, such as scuff marks, fibres, or discarded equipment.

3.Witness Accounts: Bystanders or security personnel may have heard a muffled shot or noticed suspicious activity near the waterfall, distinct from the loud report of the .30-06.

4.Ballistic Trajectory: Analyzing the trajectory of the fatal shot could confirm whether it originated from the waterfall area rather than Robinson's rooftop position.

5.Robinson's Role: Investigators should explore whether Robinson acted alone or was manipulated as part of a larger plot, potentially through communications or financial incentives.

Conclusion: A Call for Transparency

The subsonic hit theory, while speculative, offers a plausible explanation for the unusual forensic details in Charlie Kirk's murder. It suggests a level of sophistication that challenges the lone-gunman narrative and raises questions about the true motive and perpetrators. Without more information from the medical examiner or law enforcement, such theories will continue to proliferate, driven by the public's demand for answers in a high-profile case.

The Utah authorities and the FBI have an opportunity to address this speculation by releasing limited, non-sensitive details, such as the bullet's calibre or the trajectory of the shot. Until then, hypotheses like Leake's will persist, fuelled by the absence of an exit wound and the possibility of a hidden assassin. As the investigation unfolds, the truth may lie in the silent trajectory of a subsonic bullet, or in a simpler explanation yet to be revealed. The official story is full of holes, pun intended!