Vladimir Putin has overseen another successful test launch of the RS-28 Sarmat, the intercontinental ballistic missile NATO ominously calls "Satan-2." Russia describes it as an "unconditional success," and it is slated to enter combat service by the end of 2026. This is no mere Kremlin propaganda. Independent assessments confirm that Russia has invested decades in modernising its nuclear arsenal while much of the West directed its attention and resources elsewhere.
The Sarmat is a monster: 116 feet tall, weighing over 200 tons, capable of flying at speeds exceeding Mach 20, and with a claimed range of more than 35,000 kilometres, enough to strike anywhere on Earth. It can carry up to 10–16 independently targetable thermonuclear warheads, each powerful enough to destroy a major city. A single missile could devastate an area the size of Texas. It is equipped with advanced decoys, manoeuvrable hypersonic glide vehicles, and sophisticated countermeasures designed specifically to penetrate and overwhelm missile defence systems.
The West currently has nothing comparable. America's Minuteman III ICBMs date back to the 1970s, and the new Sentinel replacement is not expected to be operational until the early 2030s. Putin has also highlighted progress on other doomsday systems, including the Poseidon underwater nuclear drone, designed to create radioactive tsunamis along enemy coastlines, and the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile with virtually unlimited range. Russia's air defence systems, particularly the S-500, are considered generations ahead of many Western equivalents in key respects.
While Western leaders chased climate targets, diversity initiatives, and proxy conflicts, Russia focused on rebuilding its strategic nuclear triad: land, sea, and air. This is not the nuclear parity of the 1980s. The balance has shifted in Russia's favour as it modernises while older Western systems age and rust.
No one wins a nuclear exchange, but the human and civilisational cost would be apocalyptic. Simulations such as Princeton's "Plan A" illustrate a plausible U.S.-Russia scenario in which blast, fire, and immediate radiation kill or injure over 90 million people in the first hours, wiping out major cities, military bases, and critical infrastructure. The longer-term consequences are even worse. Soot from burning cities would trigger nuclear winter, crashing global temperatures and agricultural output, potentially leading to billions facing famine. High-altitude electromagnetic pulse (EMP) detonations could fry electronics across entire continents, collapsing power grids, communications, and supply chains and thrusting modern society back to pre-industrial conditions almost overnight. Once the first nuclear weapon is used, even in a "limited" or tactical strike, escalation becomes extremely difficult to control, especially given Russia's doctrine that permits nuclear use if it perceives an existential threat.
The Sarmat, Poseidon, and systems like the hypersonic Oreshnik already employed in Ukraine give Russia flexible, hard-to-defend options for rapid and devastating strikes.
The real danger lies in Western complacency and provocation. For years, elites dismissed Russia as a "gas station with nukes" even as it steadily rebuilt its strategic forces. NATO expansion up to Russia's borders, massive weapons shipments to Ukraine, and repeated underestimation have contributed to the current posture. Deterrence functions only when both sides are convinced the other can inflict truly unacceptable damage. If Russia harbours doubts about the West's ability to penetrate its defences with ageing systems, the risk of dangerous miscalculation rises sharply.
No sane person wants war with Russia. Yet ignoring Moscow's demonstrated capabilities or continually pushing it into a corner is reckless. While the West obsessed over internal cultural battles and green fantasies, authoritarian powers have been arming themselves for great-power conflict.
The Sarmat test is a stark reminder that nuclear war is not a distant Cold War relic. It remains a real and present danger. One launch, multiple warheads, limited effective defence, and the inevitable retaliation would turn vast regions of both countries into radioactive wastelands, with catastrophic global consequences for everyone else.
Strength, realism, and clear-eyed deterrence are the only reliable safeguards against this nightmare. We should pray it never happens, but pretending Russia's advances do not matter, or that endless provocation carries no serious risk, is the fastest route to making that very bad day arrive.
https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/the-nuclear-missile-that-vladimir