The world is changing very quickly. The year 2026 should be marked by
the return of spheres of influence and the end of colonial empires.
Above all, it will see the return of international law to the rules we
have known until now. Only those who are able to understand these
developments and adapt to them quickly will continue to thrive.
The world map established at the Anchorage summit on August 15, 2025.
The world map is divided into three zones of influence. These are
indicated in general terms and are currently being negotiated with
greater precision.
We are witnessing a reorganization of the world following the Anchorage
summit (August 15, 2025), the ceasefire in Gaza (October 10, 2025), and
Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela (January 3, 2026). It is now
clear that Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin divided the world
between them in Alaska. The validation of this arrangement will take
place at the next Trump-Xi summit.
The only information we have is the map from the Russian General Staff,
published by Andrei Martyanov. It divides the world into three zones of
influence, which does not contradict the principle of a multipolar
world. Primitive international law—I mean pre-Cold War—only resolves a
few problems. It grants states complete freedom to do as they please
within the limits they themselves have set.
I explained in my last column that, contrary to popular belief, while
the United States may have committed a crime by abducting President
Maduro, according to previous rules, they were within their rights to do
so, based solely on their commitments. Whether one finds this reality
shocking changes nothing. This is now how we must operate.
Until now, the world was governed by the G5/6/7/8/7, formerly composed
of Germany, Canada, France, the United States, Italy, Japan, the United
Kingdom, and the European Union.
Its demise marks the end of the British and French empires. We must
acknowledge that France will have to decolonize New Caledonia and French
Polynesia; the United States will have to decolonize Samoa, Guam, and
the Virgin Islands; New Zealand will have to decolonize Tokelau; and the
United Kingdom will have to decolonize Angilla, Bermuda, the Virgin
Islands, the Cayman and Falkland Islands, Gibraltar, Montserrat, Saint
Helena, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. This will have to be done very
quickly if France, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and the United
Kingdom wish to maintain a presence in their former colonies.
It is likely that the Commonwealth will disintegrate. Its member states
will, at the very least, abandon their shared citizenship.
The G7 will be replaced by a C4/5 composed of China, the United States,
India, and Russia, to which President Trump hopes to add Japan. However,
it is likely that Japan will not be admitted, given its belligerent
statements. China remains furious about the rise of Japanese imperial
militarism, the denialism of the Sanae Takaichi government, its views on
Taiwanese microprocessors, and its rare earth exploration.
Given their respective power, the four major world powers will be able
to do as they please in all cases not governed by international law—as
the United States did in Venezuela.
Several regional alliances will allow secondary powers to play a
significant role.
I won't discuss NATO, which will be dissolved by mid-2027, or sooner if
the transfer of Greenland from Denmark to the US allows. The admonitions
of a few Europeans will change nothing: they will wage war on the United
States no more than they will on Russia.
The AUKUS Alliance (Australia, the United States, and the United
Kingdom) will also not survive the partitioning of the world.
The EU is also expected to disappear. Ursula von der Leyen's appearance
at the signing ceremony of the EU/Mercosur free trade agreement only
hastened its downfall: the people of France, Poland, Austria, Ireland,
and Hungary have just realized that this bureaucracy is not defending
their interests, but sacrificing their farmers to the needs of German
industry.
Several organizations will take over: the Joint Expeditionary Force
(JEF), a British mini-NATO, already includes Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia,
Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Finland, and the Netherlands, all
centered around the United Kingdom. Ukraine will join, while Iceland
will join the United States (after the cession of Greenland). Indeed,
Canada and Greenland are located on the American continental shelf, as
is part of Iceland, which understandably gives the United States an
appetite for it. For their part, Bulgaria, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania,
Poland, and Sweden have already formed an "Eastern Front Alliance." It
is uncertain whether this new organization will be sustainable, as it
currently lacks both a budget and a secretariat.
These military alliances will be complemented by political coalitions,
much like the EU has complemented NATO. The Three Seas Initiative is the
most significant of these. It brings together Austria, Bulgaria,
Croatia, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and
Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic. It aims to reform
the medieval Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth or Marshal Józef Pi sudski's
Mie dzymorze Federation project: creating a federation between Germany
and Russia.
This is a Polish project, championed by President Karol Nawrocki (Law
and Justice), while the Eastern Front Alliance is a project led by Prime
Minister Donald Tusk (Civic Coalition).
In the Middle East, the Saudi Arabia/Iran rivalry ended with the Chinese
mediation of 2023. It has been replaced by a Saudi Arabia/United Arab
Emirates rivalry. This rivalry has already manifested itself in Yemen
and Sudan. Those who, just four years ago, were the best of friends, are
now bitter rivals.
Riyadh is attempting to rally support behind it, along with Pakistan,
Turkey, Egypt, and Somalia. For its part, Abu Dhabi, which has already
forged military alliances with Sudanese, Libyan, and Somali factions, is
expected to move closer to Israel and bring Ethiopia into its fold.
In Africa, the Alliance of Sahel States, composed of Burkina Faso, Mali,
and Niger, is the only regional military alliance. It is expected to be
encouraged by China and Russia. In Latin America, the Bolivarian
Alliance of the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) is no longer functioning.
On the contrary, a coalition is forming around Argentina and Chile with
the approval of the United States.
China, India, and Russia want to preserve the United Nations.
Consequently, President Trump has abandoned his plans to leave the UN
headquarters. It is crucial to understand that much of what the UN has
built will be dismantled to bring it into line with international law.
Because, contrary to what we have convinced ourselves, the United
Nations is not international law.