Once heralded as Europe's safest city and fourth globally in The Economist's 2019 Safe City Index, Amsterdam's descent into insecurity marks a jarring implosion of its social fabric. A recent AT5 debate revealed that 70% of panellists, 85% of women, avoid parts of the city due to fear, with half of women reporting harassment, from catcalling to assault. High-profile crimes, including the murders of 17-year-olds Rivaldo and Lisa and a spate of sexual assaults, have amplified these concerns, transforming parks, shopping streets, and bike paths into perceived danger zones. As silent marches fill the streets and the October 29, 2025, Dutch parliamentary elections loom, Amsterdam's crisis reflects a broader unravelling of Western urban centers, driven by unchecked immigration, failing policing, and a cultural refusal to confront hard truths. I will discuss the meta-political (politics of politics) significance of Amsterdam's implosion, its roots in policy failures, and the ominous implications for the West's future.
A City in Fear: The Collapse of Safety
Amsterdam's fall from grace is stark. The AT5 debate paints a city where fear dictates movement: Vondelpark, Sarphatipark, and Oosterpark are no-go zones after dark, bicycle tunnels are avoided, and even bustling shopping streets like Leidsestraat and Kalverstraat turn "grim" when shops close. Women describe being followed, groped, or robbed, with one recounting a terrifying pursuit by a man demanding money, forcing her to seek refuge in a bar. Another, Eva, shared being physically assaulted by a stranger, only to doubt her own experience due to societal dismissal. These aren't isolated anecdotes, 50% of participants reported direct negative encounters, yet 91% of women never reported incidents to police, reflecting a profound distrust in authorities. The absence of neighbourhood policing, as one panellist noted, leaves citizens "fending for themselves," a sentiment echoed by 56% who feel police efforts are inadequate. This erosion of safety isn't just a statistic; it's a meta-political signal of a city failing its people, where the social contract, security in exchange for civic trust, lies in tatters.
The Catalysts: Immigration and Policy Failures
At the heart of Amsterdam's crisis lies a confluence of policy failures, with unchecked immigration as a central driver. The murder of Lisa by a 22-year-old asylum seeker, coupled with recent sexual assaults and a 17% rise in regional crime, including 99 explosive attacks in 2022, has led to public outrage. These incidents resonate with Victor Davis Hanson's "third horseman" of unchecked immigration, where elites ignored evidence that successful immigration requires legality, moderation, and assimilation. Amsterdam's open-border policies welcomed unvetted migrants, many of whom, as Hanson notes, lack the desire or ability to adopt Dutch values, straining welfare systems and spiking crime. The AT5 panel's fear of loitering groups and poorly lit areas, points to a broader social chaos, where parallel communities erode cohesion. This isn't xenophobia; it's a recognition that mass, unassimilated immigration, coupled with lax policing, creates enclaves of disorder, as seen in areas like Bijlmer-Gaasperdam, notorious for high crime rates. The meta-political fallout is a crisis of sovereignty: when a city cannot protect its citizens or enforce its norms, it ceases to function as a unified polity.
The Policing Vacuum and Cultural Denial
The police's perceived absence exacerbates Amsterdam's implosion. The AT5 panel's lament over "invisible" police reflects a broader trend: the dissolution of neighbourhood policing has left citizens vulnerable, with only 30 officers assigned to a new "Stop Violence Against Women" platform, despite €6 million in funding. This token gesture fails to address the scale of the crisis, especially as 91% of harassed women don't report incidents, knowing they'll be dismissed or unresolved. Meta-politically, this signals institutional decay, a failure of the state to uphold its primary duty: ensuring safety. Worse, cultural denial compounds the problem. The reluctance to name specific drivers of crime, such as the disproportionate involvement of certain migrant groups, mirrors the West's broader aversion to confronting uncomfortable truths. This echoes Hanson's critique of a "therapeutic culture" that prioritises utopian ideals over reality, leaving cities like Amsterdam to grapple with the consequences of unaddressed tribalism and crime.
The Political Reckoning: Elections and the Rise of the Right
The upcoming October 29, 2025, Dutch parliamentary elections cast a long shadow over Amsterdam's crisis. Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV), projected to become the largest party, has seized on public fear, basing its manifesto on immigration, asylum, and law and order. Proposals like life sentences without parole, tougher penalties for violent crimes, and stricter prison regimes resonate with a populace desperate for security. Yet, the refusal of other parties to coalition with Wilders risks sidelining these concerns, deepening public alienation. This dynamic reflects a meta-political shift: the rise of populist, anti-establishment movements across the West, from Trump to the AfD, as citizens reject elites who dismiss their fears. Amsterdam's silent marches and protests signal a grassroots demand for accountability, but if mainstream parties ignore this, they risk producing extremism or vigilantism, a dangerous escalation in a city already on edge.
Amsterdam's implosion is a microcosm of the West's broader decline, as outlined by Hanson's "Four Horsemen." The city's safety crisis ties directly to unchecked immigration and tribalism, while its cultural denial mirrors the rejection of meritocracy and universal values. The fear gripping women, 85% avoiding certain areas, echoes reports from other Western cities, like London or Paris, where public spaces are increasingly hostile. The failure to integrate migrants, coupled with soft-on-crime policies, has created a feedback loop of insecurity, eroding the Enlightenment ideals that made cities like Amsterdam global beacons. Meta-politically, this signals a retreat from civilisation itself: when citizens cannot walk freely, when police are absent, and when elites refuse to act, the social order frays, inviting chaos or authoritarian backlash.
Amsterdam's salvation lies in confronting its self-inflicted wounds. First, it must restore robust policing, reinstating neighbourhood officers and prioritising rapid response to crimes, no matter how "minor." Second, immigration policies must shift toward legality, meritocracy, and assimilation, as Hanson advocates, ensuring newcomers adopt Dutch values. Third, cultural denial must end, honest discussions about crime demographics, without fear of "hate speech" accusations, are essential to targeted solutions. Finally, public awareness campaigns, as suggested by AT5 panellists, should start early, teaching respect and accountability to curb harassment. Legalising pepper spray, and/or handguns for women, as some propose, could empower women but risks escalating street conflicts if not tightly regulated. Without these steps, Amsterdam risks becoming another cautionary tale of urban decay, like Detroit or parts of San Francisco.
Amsterdam's implosion is a warning flare for the West. Once a symbol of safety and tolerance, it now grapples with fear, crime, and distrust, driven by policies that ignored reality for ideology. The meta-political stakes are existential: a civilisation that cannot protect its citizens, enforce its laws, or unify its people is no civilisation at all. As the October 29 elections approach, Amsterdam stands at a crossroads, embrace reform or slide further into chaos. The West watches, knowing its own fate hangs in the balance. The horsemen of Hanson's apocalypse gallop closer, and only bold, unapologetic action can turn them back before Amsterdam, and the civilisation it represents, falls to ruin.
https://amgreatness.com/2025/09/11/the-four-horsemen-of-the-western-apocalypse/