The claim that Australian governments are powerless to control net overseas migration (NOM) is one of the most persistent and convenient myths in modern politics. It lets politicians shrug their shoulders, blame "global forces," and keep the tap running while housing, infrastructure, and social cohesion buckle under the strain.
The Macrobusiness piece (link below) nails it: we've already run the real-world experiment that proves the opposite.
COVID-19: The Control Experiment
During the pandemic, Australia slammed the borders shut harder and longer than almost any other developed nation:
International arrivals collapsed.
Net overseas migration turned negative in 2020–21 for the first time in decades (more people left than arrived).
Population growth dropped to its lowest rate in over a century.
Temporary students, skilled workers, tourists, and even returning Australians were blocked or heavily restricted.
This wasn't some mysterious force of nature. It was deliberate government policy: border closures, visa cancellations, flight bans, and quarantine rules. The levers exist — they were pulled hard. And it worked exactly as intended on migration numbers.
When the borders reopened in 2022, the rebound was equally dramatic: NOM surged to record highs (over 500k in 2022–23) because policy deliberately let it. Recent tightening (higher English requirements, student visa caps, age limits, genuine student tests) has already started bringing numbers down to ~306k in 2024–25.
Conclusion: Migration volume is highly controllable when the political will exists.
Why the Myth Persists
The "we can't control it" line serves powerful interests:
Universities hooked on international student fees (a $40+ billion export industry).
Employers wanting cheap labour in hospitality, retail, and construction.
Governments chasing short-term GDP growth and tax revenue from a bigger population.
Ideological commitment to high migration as a demographic and multicultural good.
When numbers get politically toxic (housing crisis, hospital queues, wage suppression in some sectors), the narrative shifts to helplessness: "It's out of our hands." Yet the same governments fine-tune skilled occupation lists, tweak visa conditions, and adjust permanent migration caps with precision when they choose to.
What Real Control Looks Like
Australia already has the tools:
Visa issuance rates and approval thresholds.
Temporary vs permanent streams.
Student visa integrity rules.
Skilled migration points tests and occupation lists.
Humanitarian intake settings.
Border enforcement and deportation policy.
The post-COVID swing from negative NOM to record positive, and now the gradual pullback, shows these levers work. The issue isn't lack of power, it's lack of consistent political courage to set a sustainable level (historically ~160-200k NOM) and stick to it, regardless of lobby group pressure.
The Deeper Truth
If a government can't (or won't) control immigration, one of the most basic sovereign powers of any nation-state, then it raises serious questions about its ability to control anything: budgets, crime, infrastructure delivery, energy policy, or cultural cohesion.
Sovereign control over borders is not optional for a functioning country. Pretending otherwise is the real myth, and one that's costing ordinary Australians dearly in higher rents, crowded services, and strained social trust.
Time to drop the helplessness act. The COVID experiment proved governments can turn the migration tap on and off. The only question left is whether they'll choose numbers that put Australian citizens first.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/05/the-greatest-migration-myth/