This article was referenced at the blog yesterday in relation to the claim made by some scientists that the methodology employed by mainstream climate scientists, who champion the climate change alarmist position, such as the UN and World Economic Forum, is fundamentally flawed. To add further to this debate, this item will discuss the revelation obtained by the Daily Sceptic, that 29.2 percent of the UK Met Office temperature measuring stations have a margin of error in measurement of up to 5° C, and another 48.7 percent of these stations have a margin of error of up to 2° C. This means that the official readings are also fundamentally flawed, and cannot serve to provide any evidential basis for climate change policies, such as the elimination of fossil fuels and radical reduction of agriculture in thezero net ideology.
The Daily Sceptic under a Freedom of Information request obtained a full list of the Met Office's U.K. weather stations, and individual class ratings defined by the World Meteorological Office (WMO). It was found that only 13.7 percent of the Met Office's temperature and humidity stations, had an uncertainty suitable for evidential purposes. This suggests that people in other jurisdictions, such as Australia, also under the climate change hammer, should be looking into the reliability of these sorts of measuring stations. My hypothesis is that results will be the same, with many located in urban heat spots, generating a temperature rise bias. As always, climate change garbage in, climate change garbage out.
"Nearly one in three (29.2%) U.K. Met Office temperature measuring stations have an internationally-defined margin of error of up to 5°C. Another 48.7% of the total 380 stations could produce errors up to 2°C, meaning nearly eight out of ten stations (77.9%) are producing 'junk' or 'near junk' readings of surface air temperatures. Arguably, on no scientific basis should these figures be used for the Met Office's constant promotion of the collectivist Net Zero project. Nevertheless, the state-funded operation frequently uses them to report and often catastrophise rises in temperature of as little as 0.01°C.
Under a freedom of information request, the Daily Sceptic has obtained a full list of the Met Office's U.K. weather stations, along with an individual class rating defined by the World Meteorological Office. These CIMO ratings range from pristine class 1 and near pristine class 2, to an 'anything goes' or 'junk' class 5. The CIMO ratings penalise sites that are near any artificial heat sources such as buildings and concrete surfaces. According to the WMO, a class 5 site is one where nearby obstacles "create an inappropriate environment for a meteorological measurement that is intended to be representative of a wide area". Even the Met Office refers to sites next to buildings and vegetation as "undesirable". It seems class 5 sites can be placed anywhere, and they come with a WMO warning of "additional estimated uncertainties added by siting up to 5°C"; class 4 notes "uncertainties" up to 2°C, while class 3 states 1°C. Only 13.7%, or 52 of the Met Office's temperature and humidity stations come with no such 'uncertainty' warnings attached.
The above graph [see original article] shows the percentage totals of each class. Class 1 and 2, identified in green, account for just 6.3% and 7.4% of the total respectively. Class 3 identified as orange comes in at 8.4%. The graph shows the huge majorities enjoyed by the darkening shades of red showing classes 4 and 5. It is possible that the margins of error identified for classes 3, 4 and 5 could be a minus amount – if for instance the measuring device was sited in a frost hollow – but the vast majority are certain to be pushed upwards by heat corruptions.
Last year, the investigative journalist Paul Homewood sought FOI information from the Met Office about the Welsh weather station Porthmadog, which often appears in 'hottest of the day' listings. He was informed that the site was listed as class 4 and "this is an acceptable rating for a temperature sensor". Hence, continued the Met Office, "we will continue to quote from this site". In short, observes Homewood, the Met Office is happy to use a class 4 site for climatological purposes, "even though that class is next to junk status". It is bad enough that the Met Office is using this site, but it is even worse that they know about the issues but still plan to carry on doing so, Homewood continued. "How many other weather stations are of such poor quality?" he asked.
Now we know.
Using these figures with a precision to one hundredth of a degree centigrade, the Met Office declared that 2023 was the second hottest in the U.K., coming in just 0.06°C lower than the all-time record. Cue, of course, all the Thermogeddon headlines in mainstream media. In 2022, the Met Office said that five sites in the U.K. on July 19th went past 40°C, with a record of 40.3°C at RAF Coningsby. Kew Gardens is termed a class 2 site, although it is very close to one of the largest tropical glasshouses in the world. St James's Park and Northolt airport are class 5 sites, Heathrow is class 4, while RAF Coningsby is class 3. At the time, the Met Office declared that the records set a "milestone in U.K. climate history". A national record was also set on July 18th at Hawarden Airport in Wales (class 4) and on July 19th at Charterhall in Scotland (class 4).
Always alive to a popular headline catastrophising the weather, the Met Office declared a warmest St. Valentine's night English record this year of 11.5°C at class 4-rated St. Mary's airport on the Isles of Scilly. Earlier in the year, the Met Office declared the highest January temperature in Scotland at 19.6°C at Kinlochewe, a class 4 site. Interestingly the previous, much promoted, U.K. record was set on July 31th 2019 at the Cambridge Botanic Gardens, a class 5 site. Even more interesting is that in the Homewood FOI disclosures, the Met Office stated that class 5 data "will be flagged and not quoted in national records".
The Met Office is between a rock and a hard place with these surface temperature measurements. Many of its long-standing stations have been encroached by urbanisation and corruptions seem to have become endemic across the entire system. In the past, this didn't matter as much since margin of error allowances could be accepted along with less accurate local and national weather forecasting. Measuring surface temperatures across countries and then the planet is always going to be difficult, but a more accurate reading would be obtained by only using data from WMO classes 1 and 2. However, national and global temperatures have become politicised by the global warming scare and the proposed Net Zero solution. Alarmists often state that climate 'tipping' points will be reached with very small increases in temperature measured in tenths of a degree.
Using data from just classes 1 and 2 would likely crash the claimed rises in national and global temperatures. Something similar would likely occur if the Met Office moved the majority of its stations to more suitable spots. A number of scientists have tried to measure the urban heat bias in temperature records with estimates suggesting a general problem of warming corruption around the 20-30% mark. Last October, two scientists working out of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), produced a paper noting: "The bottom line is that an estimated 22% of the U.S. warming trend, 1895 to 2023, is due to localised UHI [urban heat island] effects."
Under our FOI request, it can now be seen that the problems with corrupted U.K. weather stations are similar to those discovered in the United States by meteorologist Anthony Watts. In work compiled over a decade, Watts found that 96% of temperature stations used by the U.S. weather service NOAA were "corrupted" by the localised effects of urbanisation. Sites in close proximity to asphalt, machinery and other heat-producing or heat-accentuating objects, "violates NOAA's own published standards, and strongly undermines the legitimacy and magnitude of the official consensus on long-term climate warming trends in the United States", he observed.
Both the U.K. and U.S. temperature datasets are important constituents of global totals compiled by a number of weather operations including the Met Office and NASA. The Met Office runs HadCRUT, where over the last 10 years two retrospective revisions have added about 30% extra warming to recent global temperatures. This had the effect of removing all traces of a pause around 2000-2014. Meanwhile, Professor Ole Humlum has noted that the GISS database run by NASA increased its surface air temperature between 1910 to 2000 from 0.47°C to 0.67°C, a boost of 49% over this period. "Frequent and large corrections in a database unavoidably signal a fundamental uncertainty about the correct values," commented Humlum.
Pristine temperature data is available. In 2005, NOAA set up a 114 nationwide network of stations called the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN). It was designed to remove all urban heat distortions, aiming for "superior accuracy and continuity in places that land use will not likely impact during the next five decades".
The graph above shows nothing more than very minor, gentle warming since 2005, slight warming that might be expected in the small and continuing natural rebound from the depths of the pre-industrial Little Ice Age. A reliable source of global data is to be found in the UAH satellite record, which shows less overall warming since 1979 than the surface datasets. Both these datasets are rarely mentioned. In fact one of the compilers of the satellite data, along with the UAH paper on urban heat, is Dr. Roy Spencer. In 2022 he was kicked off Google AdSense for publishing "unreliable and harmful claims". The move demonetised Dr. Spencer's widely consulted monthly satellite temperature update page by removing all Google-supplied advertising. Google is on record as stating that it will ban all sites that are sceptical of "well established scientific consensus".