As the world continues to grapple with the long tail of the COVID-19 pandemic, a provocative analysis of Japanese vaccination data has reignited debates over mRNA shots. Popularized by entrepreneur Steve Kirsch on his Substack, the claim hinges on visualisations from a tool built by Kenji Fujikawa, a Tokyo city councillor and former informatics researcher. Fujikawa's "Kirsch Cumulative Outcomes Ratio" (KCOR) dashboard, drawing from freedom-of-information requests on over 21 million vaccination records across Japanese municipalities, purports to reveal a stark pattern: Each successive COVID vaccine dose correlates with a spike in mortality among recipients, as depicted in cumulative hazard plots. These charts, the argument goes, show unvaccinated or lower-dose cohorts (blue lines) maintaining steady, linear mortality trajectories, while higher-dose groups (green lines) align briefly before veering upward, a "divergence" interpreted as direct evidence of vaccine-induced harm. For boosters from the first through the seventh dose, the pattern allegedly repeats "every single time," defying expectations that healthier individuals (more likely to seek boosters) should fare better, not worse. It's a narrative of obedience turned tragic: Japan's high uptake, over 80% for initial doses, with millions chasing seventh rounds, framed as a governmental blind spot to mounting deaths.
This take resonates in circles sceptical of pharmaceutical interventions, amplified by Fujikawa's X posts (@hudikaha) decrying "medical cartel overreach" and linking vaccines to excess cancer and overall mortality. Yet, as with much pandemic-era data, the story is more nuanced than the visuals suggest. A closer examination reveals methodological rigour alongside unaddressed confounders, situating the analysis within a broader, contentious body of evidence on vaccine safety. I will dissect the claim's foundations, strengths, pitfalls, and implications, to assess whether Japan's data truly signals a "nightmare scenario."
Fujikawa's KCOR tool, hosted at medicalfacts.info, leverages granular records from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) and local governments, data made public via citizen-led FOI campaigns under the "COVID-19 Vaccination Data Disclosure Request Project." This initiative, involving groups like the Yukoku Union, has compiled over 25 million anonymised entries by mid-2025, tracking vaccination dates, doses, demographics, and death timestamps across cohorts. Exclusions for incomplete records (e.g., missing lot numbers or relocation data) aim for cleanliness, yielding what proponents call "meticulously collected" evidence superior to less structured datasets elsewhere.
This approach borrows from standard epidemiology, making it accessible yet powerful for lay scrutiny. No overt disclaimers mar the interface, though the project notes volunteer-driven analysis and plans for peer-reviewed publication, underscoring its advocacy bent. In a country where vaccine uptake remains high (e.g., 20 million sixth doses by late 2023), such transparency is a boon, enabling real-time hypothesis-testing absent from centralised MHLW dashboards.
The charts' siren call lies in their simplicity and repetition. Unlike aggregate excess death tallies, which Japan tracks meticulously (showing 2022-2023 spikes post-Omicron), these dose-stratified views isolate "signal from noise." If vaccines confer protection, higher-dose lines should dip below baselines, especially among the "healthy volunteer" crowd chasing boosters. Instead, the upward kinks, timed roughly 3-6 months post-dose, align with no clear COVID waves, suggesting causality over coincidence. A 2025 JMA Journal commentary echoes this, noting "significant increase in excess deaths" after repeated mRNA doses, urging probes into non-COVID factors like cardiovascular strain or immune dysregulation. Similarly, a Cureus analysis tied third-dose timing to elevated age-adjusted cancer mortality, hypothesising spike protein persistence or DNA contaminants as culprits, echoing Fujikawa's graphs of oncology surges.
In Japan's context, where excess deaths climbed 10-15% above projections from 2021 onward (peaking at 50,000+ in 2022), while pre-vaccine 2020 saw dips, the dose-mortality gradient feels damning. Proponents like Kirsch frame it as "the greatest set of coincidences" imaginable, a fixed-cohort smoking gun unmarred by selection bias. For a populace still booster-eligible into 2025, it's a clarion call: Obedience without oversight breeds peril.
Fujikawa's dashboard is a testament to citizen science: Democratising data in a high-trust society like Japan, where 2025 uptake lingers at 60% for seniors despite fatigue. Its divergences merit scrutiny, potentially flagging underreported signals like turbo-cancers or cardiac risks, as hinted in niche studies.
The true drumbeat here is for rigour, independent audits, adjusted models, and longitudinal trials. Japan's officials, per MHLW 2025 reports, monitor via VAERS-like systems, approving boosters while probing excesses. As Fujikawa's tool evolves toward publication, it could illuminate blind spots.
https://kirschsubstack.com/p/japan-covid-shot-data-every-single