The resurgence of the nation-state, with its focus on sovereignty and economic self-interest, is nowhere clearer than in Donald Trump's trade war with China, a policy that's not just preferable to a kinetic war but arguably inevitable given the stakes. This isn't about chest-thumping nationalism for its own sake; it's about recognising that nations, not globalist dreams, remain the bedrock of stability, and Trump's tariffs and economic manoeuvres against China are a calculated way to protect American interests without bloodshed. The trade war—rooted in tariffs, sanctions, and tech restrictions—had to come because China's economic rise, fuelled by unfair practices, threatens the West's prosperity and security. Better to fight with dollars than drones, and the nation-state's return is the only framework tough enough to make it work.
Start with why a trade war beats a kinetic one. A shooting war with China would be catastrophic—think millions dead, global markets in freefall, and a nuclear shadow looming. The U.S. Navy's 2023 wargames estimated a Pacific conflict could cost thousands of lives and trillions in damage within weeks, with no clear winner. Supply chains would collapse, semiconductors would vanish, and everyday goods—from iPhones to antibiotics—would dry up, since China produces 90% of U.S. antibiotics and dominates rare earths. A trade war, messy as it is, avoids this apocalypse. Trump's tariffs—25% on steel, 10% on aluminium, and up to 50% on Chinese goods in 2018-2019—hurt consumers with higher prices (about $600 per household annually, per some estimates) but pale next to war's toll. They pressure China economically, forcing negotiations, as seen in the 2020 Phase One deal where Beijing pledged (shakily) to buy $200 billion more in U.S. goods. It's coercion without coffins, preserving lives while signalling strength.
Now, why was it inevitable? China's economic playbook—state subsidies, intellectual property theft, and market barriers—has been a slow-motion heist of Western wealth. By 2025, China's GDP is projected to hit $20 trillion, closing in on the U.S.'s $28 trillion. Its Belt and Road Initiative locks poorer nations into debt, while its Made in China 2025 plan aims to dominate tech, from AI to 5G. The U.S. ran a $419 billion trade deficit with China in 2018, funding Beijing's military buildup—think hypersonic missiles and aircraft carriers—while hollowing out American manufacturing. Studies show 2 million U.S. jobs were displaced due to Chinese import surges from 1999 to 2011. Letting this slide isn't neutrality; it's surrender. Trump's trade war, relaunched with 125% tariffs in 2025, as reported by CBS, is a firewall, aiming to claw back jobs and secure supply chains, like semiconductors, where Taiwan's TSMC makes 90% of advanced chips.
The nation-state's return is the engine here. Globalism promised peace through interdependence, but it left nations vulnerable. China weaponised trade, buying influence while shielding its own markets. The EU's dithering, Germany's car exports to China make it hesitant to retaliate, shows supranational bodies lack the spine for hard fights. Only nation-states, answerable to their people, can muster the will to act. Trump's America First stance, like it or not, prioritises U.S. workers over abstract ideals. It's why tariffs target Chinese EVs (70% tariffs in 2024) to protect Detroit, and why Huawei's banned from U.S. 5G—national security trumps open markets. Other nations are following: India's raised duties on Chinese goods; Japan's tightened tech exports. The nation-state's back because it's the only unit that can say "us first" and mean it.
Critics cry foul—tariffs raise prices, disrupt alliances, and risk escalation. Free-traders argue markets, not governments, should pick winners; consumers lose when Walmart's shelves cost more. There's truth there: the Peterson Institute pegged Trump's tariffs as adding $1,300 per household. And China's not folding easily—it slapped $100 billion in retaliatory tariffs, hitting U.S. farmers hard. Yet the alternative—ignoring China's predation—is worse. Without pushback, Beijing's economic dominance becomes unassailable, paving the way for geopolitical muscle that could spark that kinetic war everyone fears. Tariffs are a painkiller, not a cure, but they buy time to rebuild industries and rally allies, like the Quad (U.S., Japan, India, Australia), to counter China's reach.
The trade war had to come because the nation-state's survival instinct kicked in. Rome fell when it couldn't control its borders, economic or otherwise. The West can't afford to outsource its future to a rival that plays dirty. Trump's gambit, for all its chaos, is a bet that nations can still fight for themselves without firing a shot. It's not pretty, but it's smarter than the alternative, and in a world of wolves, the nation-state's howl is the only one that carries.