Michael Snyder's recent piece draws attention to something genuinely concerning: ocean temperatures are running unusually high in several key regions. While the mainstream climate narrative immediately attributes every anomaly to "climate change," a more careful look shows that natural variability, especially powerful El Niño events, ocean cycles like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and long-term natural warming trends since the Little Ice Age — can produce dramatic effects without needing to invoke human CO₂ as the primary driver.

Sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans have been elevated. A strong El Niño can release enormous amounts of stored heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, altering global weather patterns for 12–18 months. We are seeing:

Increased risk of heavy rainfall and flooding in some regions (eastern Australia, parts of South America).

Drier conditions and heightened bushfire risk in others (southeast Asia, eastern Africa).

Stronger tropical cyclones or hurricanes in warmer ocean basins.

Disruptions to fisheries and marine ecosystems as temperature thresholds are exceeded.

These effects are real and can be devastating to agriculture, infrastructure, and communities. Farmers, emergency services, and insurers need to prepare for more volatile conditions.

Natural Drivers, Not Just "Climate Change"

It is important to stress: unusually warm oceans and extreme weather events are not proof of dangerous human-caused climate change.

The climate system has always been variable. Major El Niño events (such as 1997–98 and 2015–16) produced record warmth and wild weather long before current CO₂ levels. Seasonal, decadal, and multi-decadal ocean cycles can shift heat distribution around the planet with little warning. Volcanic activity, solar variability, and changes in ocean circulation (such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) also play significant roles.

Even modest natural warming since the 19th century amplifies the baseline. A strong El Niño on top of that baseline creates extremes that grab headlines. But correlation is not causation, and the attribution science in this area remains contested and heavily politicised.

Practical Impacts Australians Should Watch

For Australia specifically:

East coast rainfall: Warmer Pacific waters often mean wetter conditions and higher flood risk (as we have seen in recent La Niña and transitional years).

Drought and fire: When the system flips, prolonged dry spells become more punishing.

Coral bleaching: Elevated temperatures stress the Great Barrier Reef, though recovery patterns show resilience when temperatures moderate.

Agricultural volatility: Erratic rainfall and temperature swings hurt planning for crops and livestock.

These problems are serious enough on their own. We do not need to exaggerate them into an existential "climate emergency" to justify sensible preparation: better coastal and floodplain management, resilient infrastructure, water storage, and drought/flood strategies that actually work.

Rising ocean temperatures deserve attention, not panic. They highlight the enduring power of natural climate variability. Seasonal and cyclical swings have always been capable of delivering "unprecedented" weather. Our focus should be on adaptation and resilience rather than futile attempts to control the global thermostat through net-zero timelines that damage energy reliability and living standards.

Strong El Niño or not, Australia has faced floods, droughts, cyclones, and heatwaves for centuries. The best response is pragmatic engineering, sound land management, and honest risk assessment, not ritualistic emissions reduction that ignores the dominant role of the oceans and natural cycles.

The oceans are vast heat engines. When they run hot, the weather gets wild. That reality existed long before industrialisation, and it will persist long after current political fashions have passed.

https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/not-just-a-super-el-nino-a-record