Hugh White, Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, writing at The Conversatiopn.com, puts his view that the likelihood of World War III, with the US squaring off against China is “probably higher than the government realises, because China is harder to deter than they understand.” The war very well could go nuclear, he says. He thinks the decision to join the US or not will be based upon reflection upon past decisions, such as joining World War I (wrong), and joining World War II (right). However, that is the historian’s fallacy, since those worlds are not our own, and the past is not always the best judge of the future.
The fundamental problem with the paper is that it assumes that Australia has a choice, that communist China does not have ambitions beyond invading Taiwan, or that it is not a fundamentally tyrannical regime, not as bad as Nazi Germany to be sure, but that does not mean much, for something can still be evil even if it is not absolute evil. White says: “ The Chinese Communist Party has many faults and is responsible for much brutality and oppression, but it is not by any stretch comparable to the evil of the Nazi Party.” Human rights violations, mass organ harvesting, the cultural genocide of Tibet, and numerous other tyrannies, should give us great concern, which cannot be dismissed as mere “faults.” It begs belief to think that communist China would not aim for world conquest, given its vast military build-up, far beyond anything seen in the lead-up to World War II. Hence, the essay is based upon the wrong premises, for Australia will not have a choice beyond, fight or surrender.
How do the majority of Australians feel about communist China? Do they trust it? Almost 90 percent of Australians don’t trust China:
“Nearly 90 percent of Australians do not trust China, a leading Australian think tank expert revealed in a foreign policy speech.
Michael Fullilove AM, the executive director of the Lowy Institute, spoke at the National Press Club on June 22 about the foreign policy and security challenges facing Australia’s new government.
Fullilove shared in his speech the results of a 2022 poll to be released next week by the Institute, which found that only one in ten Australians trust China.
“Only 12 percent of Australians trust China, which is dip of 40 points from four years ago when just over half of Australians, 52 percent, trusted China,” he said.
“While nine in 10 Australians believe our alliance with the United States is important to our security, only one in 10 Australians trust China.”
Fullilove attributed Australians’ loss of trust in China to the communist country’s change, that the federal government is dealing with a “different China.”
“Its foreign policies have hardened and its willingness to accept criticism has disappeared,” he said.
Beijing Seeks to Expand Influence in the Pacific
Meanwhile, more Australians believe Beijing will pose a military threat to Australia.
“Nearly half of Australians think it’s likely that China will be a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years, which is up seven points on last year,” Fullilove said.
The data revelations come after Australia has been on the receiving end of increasingly aggressive behaviour by China. On May 26, a Chinese military jet made a dangerous intercept of an Australian aircraft over international airspace. Australia’s prime minister Anthony Albanese denounced the incident as “an act of aggression and a dangerous act.”
At the same time, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi embarked on a 10-day visit to eight South Pacific island nations in an attempt to establish security agreements, over a month after the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) signed a security pact with the Solomon Islands.
Strengthening Australia-U.S. Alliance
In response to the CCP’s recent actions in the Pacific, Fullilove said Australia needed to strengthen its alliance with the United States in the long term and take a firm stand against Beijing.
“The United States is the world’s leading power, the only country capable of projecting military power anywhere on Earth. Our lines with Washington are overwhelmingly in our national interest,” he said.
“Any argument that we should downgrade the alliance in order to please China is wrongheaded.”
On the other hand, Fullilove also argued for a “stable and productive” relationship with Beijing, saying that Australia should “certainly be on speaking terms with China.”
“The Australian government should be firm, circumspect, and disciplined,” he said.
“We should cooperate with China when we can, disagree when we must, and always stand our ground.”