The question of whether robots and AI will eliminate mass immigration to the West, countered by the possibility that the "Great Replacement" theory might negate this, is a complex mashup of tech, economics, demographics, and ideology.
The premise here is that automation—robots and AI—could reduce the economic pull factors driving immigration by replacing human labour, especially in low-skill, high-demand sectors that often draw migrants to Western countries like the U.S., Canada, Europe and Australia.
AI and robotics are already slashing demand for manual and repetitive jobs, in agriculture (robotic harvesters), construction (3D printing, autonomous machinery), and manufacturing (assembly-line bots). A 2023 McKinsey report projected that by 2030, automation could displace up to 800 million global jobs, with 15-30 percent of tasks in Western economies like the U.S. and Germany automatable. These are roles, including fruit pickers, warehouse workers, or cleaners that immigrants often fill. If robots take them, the "jobs magnet" weakens.
Mass immigration to the West is fuelled by wage gaps, say, $2/day in Honduras versus $15/hour in the U.S, maybe $25 in Australia. If AI drives down demand for low-skill labour, wages for those jobs could stagnate or drop (supply outstrips need), while robots handle the grunt work cheaper (no unions, no breaks). A 2021 OECD study noted that automation in Europe reduced hiring of foreign-born workers in routine manual jobs by 10-15 percent in some sectors. Less economic incentive, less migration.
Western governments could lean into this. If robots fill labour shortages—say, in eldercare (Japan's using robots like Robear already)—politicians might tighten borders, arguing "we don't need the workers." Trump's tariff talk (March 2025) and "bring jobs home" rhetoric could pair with automation to prioritise tech over immigration. Europe's aging population (median age ~44 vs. ~30 in Africa) might pivot to AI caregiving over importing youth.
The U.S. H-2A visa program (farm workers) issued ~258,000 visas in 2022. If robotic harvesters (e.g., Agrobot) scale up—cutting costs from $1.50/lb to $0.50/lb for strawberries—why import labour? Immigration could dry up as the need vanishes.
Robots and AI could kneecap mass immigration by gutting the economic pull—fewer jobs, less wage disparity, tighter policies. But the counter is the Great Replacement theory. The Great Replacement theory, is that Western elites are deliberately replacing White populations with non-White immigrants, often from the Global South. This implies that immigration isn't just economic but an orchestrated demographic shift, so robots/AI might not stop it.
If replacement's the goal, jobs aren't the point, population change is. Proponents like Renaud Camus argue it's cultural/political, not labour-driven. Immigration statistics back a shift: Eurostat shows non-EU migrants to Europe hit 2.4 million in 2022, often via asylum (e.g., Syrians, Afghans) or family reunification, not just work visas. Robots don't touch those—AI can't replace a refugee quota or chain migration.
The theory posits governments and corporations want diversity (or cheap votes/labour), even if robots exist. Look at Germany's 2015 migrant wave (1M+), Merkel's "wir schaffen das" wasn't about labour shortages (unemployment was 6 percent) but humanitarian/political optics. If elites prioritise this, they'll keep borders open.
Birth rates in the West are tanking—1.5 kids/woman in the EU, 1.6 in the U.S. (2023 World Bank)—while Africa's at 4.5. Even if robots take jobs, aging societies need bodies for taxes, pensions, or just population stability. A 2022 UN report pegged 8.5 million immigrants entering the U.S. from 2010-2020, often non-economic (e.g., 1.5M via family ties). We replacement theorists say this is the plan—robots can't vote or pay into Social Security.
If White populations shrink (e.g., U.S. Census: 61 percent White in 2010, 57 percent in 2020), power elites will double down on immigration to "dilute" Whites even more, not pivot to tech. If Great Replacement holds, immigration's a deliberate flood, not a labour faucet robots can shut off. Economics bend to ideology, mass migration persists until the White race is eliminated from the face of the Earth, so the elites can rule over that which remains.
If we let them.