In a bold escalation of his anti-cartel strategy, President Trump has ordered the deployment of U.S. naval assets off the coast of Venezuela, including the guided-missile destroyers USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham, and USS Sampson, accompanied by around 4,000 sailors and marines, a P-8 reconnaissance aircraft, and an attack submarine. This show of force, aimed at disrupting drug trafficking networks blamed for flooding the United States with fentanyl and other narcotics, projects American might in a region long plagued by organised crime. Yet, as impressive as this armada may appear, it represents a fundamentally flawed approach, a 20th-century solution ill-suited to a 21st-century problem. Cartels today operate not as traditional armies, but as sophisticated entities engaged in fifth-generation warfare, where battles are won through networks, information, and adaptation, rather than brute force. Historical precedents, from Mexico's bloody drug war to Colombia's mixed results under Plan Colombia, underscore the futility of such military posturing, often leading to increased violence, fragmentation, and unintended blowback without curbing the flow of drugs.
To grasp why this naval deployment is doomed to underperform, it's essential to understand fifth-generation warfare (5GW). Unlike earlier generations focused on kinetic operations, like World War II's massive battles or the Gulf War's precision strikes, 5GW emphasises non-kinetic methods like social engineering, misinformation, cyberattacks, and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and autonomous systems. Cartels embody this paradigm perfectly. They aren't hierarchical armies with clear command centers; instead, they function as decentralised networks that transcend borders, blending into societies and economies while leveraging digital tools for recruitment, sales, and operations. For instance, groups like the Sinaloa Cartel and Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) use encrypted apps for coordination, social media for propaganda, and even drones for surveillance and delivery, making them elusive targets for conventional military hardware.
The core issue is that cartels cannot be defeated like conventional armies, and attempts to do so often exacerbate the problem. Traditional military tactics target fixed assets, supply lines, and leadership hierarchies, but cartels thrive on network resilience rather than hierarchical vulnerability. When one leader is captured or killed, a tactic known as the "kingpin strategy," the network doesn't collapse; it adapts. Nodes like distributors, money launderers, couriers, and even social media influencers step in, filling voids with redundant pathways. Mexico's experience under President Felipe Calderón illustrates this starkly: his 2006 deployment of the military against cartels led to the arrest or death of numerous high-level figures, but instead of weakening the organisations, it sparked violent succession battles and fragmented large groups into smaller, more agile factions. Homicide rates skyrocketed, with over 400,000 drug-related deaths recorded since then, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. Similarly, the 2016 recapture of Sinaloa Cartel leader Joaquín 'El Chapo" Guzmán, triggered internal power struggles that destabilised regions and allowed rival groups like CJNG to expand, transforming the landscape of violence rather than diminishing it.
Compounding this is the deep economic integration of cartels, which sets them apart from isolated military foes. These networks aren't separate from legitimate systems; they're woven into them. Front companies in sectors like agriculture, mining, and real estate launder billions, while corruption permeates governments, police, and judiciaries across Latin America. Financial flows blend illicit drug profits, estimated at $19-29 billion annually for Mexican cartels alone, with legal transactions, making surgical strikes impossible without collateral damage. A naval blockade might intercept some maritime shipments, but it would devastate regional economies reliant on trade, potentially triggering humanitarian crises and political instability. In Ecuador, for example, President Daniel Noboa's 2024 deployment of 22,000 troops and construction of mega-prisons temporarily boosted his popularity but failed to restore order, as gangs simply shifted operations and violence persisted. Destroying cartel infrastructure risks dismantling swaths of these economies, alienating populations and fostering resentment that cartels exploit for recruitment.
Cartels also excel at asymmetric adaptation, a hallmark of fourth- and fifth-generation warfare, where non-state actors wage irregular conflicts against superior forces. Naval interdictions can be bypassed through land routes spanning multiple countries, homemade submarines or semi-submersibles, drone swarms for aerial deliveries, or simply bribing officials at lesser-monitored ports. History shows this adaptability in action: despite decades of U.S.-backed operations in Colombia under Plan Colombia, which poured over $10 billion into military aid and eradicated vast coca fields, production merely displaced to neighbouring countries like Peru and Bolivia, with overall cocaine output remaining stable or even increasing. In simulations of U.S. strikes on Mexican cartels, groups responded by innovating smuggling techniques, relocating labs, and escalating inter-cartel wars, spreading chaos rather than containing it.
Information warfare and perception management further tilt the scales in the cartels' favour. In 5GW, conflicts hinge less on physical force and more on shaping narratives and public opinion. Military actions against cartels often backfire by creating martyrdom stories, fuelling anti-American sentiment, and providing potent propaganda for recruitment. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's recent response, mobilising over 4.5 million militia members in the face of U.S. threats, exemplifies this "sovereignty trap." External pressure strengthens authoritarian regimes, rallying nationalists and making local communities less willing to cooperate with anti-cartel initiatives. It can even forge unholy alliances between cartels and state actors who perceive the U.S. presence as the greater threat, as seen in Venezuela's ties to groups like the Cartel of the Suns. Trump's designation of cartels as foreign terrorist organisations in early 2025, including the Sinaloa Cartel and Tren de Aragua, may enable more aggressive tactics, but experts warn it risks escalating retaliation without addressing root causes.
This leads to what can be called the "Hydra problem": each military success breeds multiple heads of trouble. Eliminating leaders creates leadership vacuums that ignite succession wars, as evidenced by the surge in Mexican violence following kingpin arrests, where intra- and inter-cartel conflicts multiplied. Fragmentation turns monolithic organisations into swarms of smaller, harder-to-track outfits; geographic displacement pushes operations into new, under-policed areas; and tactical evolution leads to more sophisticated methods, like using AI for predictive evasion or blockchain for untraceable finances. The U.S. arrest of Sinaloa figure Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada in 2024, for instance, sparked a brutal internal cartel war that killed hundreds and disrupted but ultimately strengthened rival factions. These unintended consequences have been documented repeatedly, yet policies persist, as noted in studies showing how the kingpin strategy transformed Mexico's violence structure, increasing kidnappings and homicides.
Rather than doubling down on military might, effective strategies must mirror the cartels' fifth-generation principles, targeting vulnerabilities through networked, non-kinetic means. Financial disruption offers a prime avenue: advanced blockchain analysis, real-time transaction monitoring, and international coordination, could starve cartels of funds, building on successes like the takedown of dark-web marketplaces. Information warfare counters their narratives with community-based programs that highlight cartel atrocities, disrupt social media recruitment, and promote truth campaigns about the human cost of their violence. Institutional strengthening, through anti-corruption initiatives, judicial reforms, and economic development in affected regions, builds resilient societies less susceptible to infiltration. Finally, intelligence networks, including human sources, signals interception, and predictive analytics, can pre-empt cartel moves without the fanfare of destroyers.
In conclusion, the destroyers steaming toward Venezuelan waters may symbolise resolve, but they epitomise the limits of naval power in an era of fifth-generation threats. International norms aside, such interventions are strategically misguided, as decades of failed drug wars in Latin America attest, repressive tactics have expanded armed groups' empires rather than dismantling them. Cartels thrive on the instability these actions create, adapting faster than rigid military doctrines can respond. True victory demands sophistication matching the adversary's: choking financial lifelines, winning the information battle, and fortifying institutions. Until policymakers grasp this, the advantage will remain with the cartels, not the government.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-destroyers-head-waters-off-venezuela-trump-aims-124781567