In a recent speech at the Institute for Strategic and International Studies in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong voiced significant concerns about China's growing military ambitions and their implications for the Indo-Pacific region. Her remarks, delivered just days before Albanese's visit to China, underscored the "worrying pace" of China's nuclear and conventional military buildup, highlighting a lack of transparency that unsettles Southeast Asian nations. This blog piece explores the nature of China's military aggression, its impact on Southeast Asian countries, and why it poses an alarming threat to regional stability, drawing on Wong's speech and broader geopolitical developments.
Under President Xi Jinping, China has transformed its People's Liberation Army (PLA) into a formidable force, with the world's largest navy by ship count, a modernised air force, and an expanding nuclear arsenal. The PLA's capabilities have grown exponentially over the past few decades, shifting from a primarily land-based military to one with global reach. According to the U.S. Department of Defense's 2024 China Military Power Report, China's navy now boasts over 370 ships, surpassing the U.S. Navy in size, and its air force is the largest in the Indo-Pacific. Xi has directed the PLA to be ready for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027, a goal that signals broader ambitions to reshape the regional balance of power.
This buildup includes advanced technologies like hypersonic missiles, cyber warfare capabilities, and artificial intelligence-driven systems, which enhance China's ability to project power far beyond its borders. Wong noted that this expansion, coupled with a lack of transparency, fuels regional unease, as neighbouring countries struggle to discern China's intentions. The absence of high-level Chinese representation at forums like the Shangri-La Dialogue, where U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently called out China's "destabilising" actions, further exacerbates concerns about Beijing's unwillingness to engage openly.
The South China Sea is the epicentre of China's military assertiveness, where it claims nearly the entire waterway, through which over 60% of global maritime trade passes, despite a 2016 international ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration that its claims lack legal basis. China has militarised disputed features like the Spratly Islands, building and arming artificial islands with airfields, radar systems, and missile installations, in direct violation of Xi's 2015 pledge not to militarise these areas.
Southeast Asian nations, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam, face direct confrontations:
Philippines: Chinese Coast Guard vessels have repeatedly engaged in dangerous actions, such as ramming Philippine ships and using water cannons near disputed reefs like Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal. In 2024, these incidents escalated, with Chinese forces obstructing Philippine resupply missions to its outposts, raising fears of a broader conflict. Wong specifically condemned such "destabilising and dangerous conduct" by Chinese vessels.
Vietnam: China's maritime militia and coast guard have harassed Vietnamese fishing vessels and energy exploration activities in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone (EEZ). These actions challenge Vietnam's sovereign rights and have prompted Hanoi to bolster its maritime defences, including purchasing Russian submarines and frigates.
These incidents violate international norms, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which guarantees freedom of navigation and resource rights within EEZs. China's rejection of UNCLOS in practice, coupled with its use of "grey zone" tactics, coercive actions short of war, like deploying fishing fleets as paramilitary forces, heightens tensions and undermines regional trust.
China's military posturing extends beyond the South China Sea, with Taiwan emerging as a critical flashpoint. Xi's directive to prepare for a potential invasion by 2027 has spurred Taiwan to launch its largest-ever Han Kuang military exercises in July 2025, simulating a full-scale Chinese invasion. China's regular deployments of aircraft and naval vessels near Taiwan, including crossing the Taiwan Strait's median line, have intensified, with 57 PLA aircraft detected in a single night in 2023. These actions, combined with GPS jamming and drone activity near Taiwan's outer islands, signal a growing threat.
Southeast Asian nations are alarmed by the prospect of conflict over Taiwan, which could disrupt vital trade routes and draw in regional powers. The Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, is particularly vulnerable due to its proximity and hosting of U.S. military access points under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. A conflict in the Taiwan Strait could destabilise the entire region, impacting ASEAN's economic growth and security. Wong's call for a "balance of power" where "no country dominates" reflects these concerns, emphasising the need to deter aggression without provoking escalation.
China's aggression isn't limited to military actions. It has weaponised trade to punish countries that challenge its interests, as seen in its sanctions on Australian wine, beef, barley, and coal, and similar measures against Taiwan's agricultural exports. These coercive tactics aim to pressure smaller nations into aligning with Beijing's agenda, such as opposing Taiwan's bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Wong's speech highlighted Australia's resistance to such coercion, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers reinforcing that Canberra will not relax foreign investment rules to accommodate Chinese interests in critical sectors.
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and other economic ventures, like potential military agreements with Cambodia, further extend its influence. Reports of secret deals allowing Chinese military access to Cambodian ports raise fears of a broader PLA footprint in Southeast Asia, threatening ASEAN's centrality and regional stability.
Southeast Asian nations are responding with a mix of military modernisation and diplomatic hedging:
Vietnam: Hanoi has increased defence spending by 70% since 2011, acquiring submarines and fighter jets to counter China's maritime assertiveness.
Philippines: Manila has deepened ties with the U.S., Japan, and Australia, including joint maritime exercises and a $45 million Australian initiative (PROGRESS) to boost economic resilience.
ASEAN: The ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific emphasises peaceful dispute resolution and adherence to international law, but the bloc's consensus-based approach limits its ability to confront China directly.
Australia, under Wong's leadership, has prioritised strengthening ties with ASEAN, launching initiatives like the $126 million Climate Catalyst Window and deal team hubs in Jakarta, Singapore, and Ho Chi Minh City to foster economic integration. Wong's speech underscored Australia's commitment to a region where "sovereignty is respected" and disputes are resolved through law, not force, aligning with ASEAN's principles.
China's actions alarm Southeast Asian nations for several reasons:
1.Sovereignty Violations: Militarisation of the South China Sea and harassment of regional vessels undermine the sovereign rights of smaller states, creating a "might makes right" dynamic that Wong explicitly rejected.
2.Economic Vulnerability: China's economic coercion threatens the prosperity of trade-dependent ASEAN economies, which rely on open sea lanes and fair trade rules.
3.Risk of Escalation: The Taiwan issue and South China Sea clashes raise the spectre of a broader conflict involving major powers, potentially drawing in ASEAN nations and disrupting their rapid economic growth.
4.Lack of Transparency: China's opaque military buildup, including its nuclear expansion, fuels distrust, as nations cannot predict Beijing's intentions. Wong's call for transparency reflects a regional demand for clarity.
In short: Penny Wong's warnings about China's military aggression resonate deeply with Southeast Asian nations grappling with Beijing's assertive posture. From militarised islands in the South China Sea to economic coercion and threats against Taiwan, China's actions challenge the rules-based order that underpins regional stability. Australia's response, bolstering ASEAN partnerships, resisting coercion, and advocating for a balanced power dynamic, offers a model for countering this threat without escalating to conflict. As Wong stated, "None of us seeks military confrontation with China," but a region where "no country dominates" requires collective action, transparency, and adherence to international law.
For Southeast Asia, the stakes are high. A miscalculation in the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait could unravel decades of progress. In any case the storm clouds of war are gathering, and Australia is not prepared.
"Foreign Minister Penny Wong has expressed alarm over Beijing's strategic ambitions and surging military capabilities, two days before Anthony Albanese departs for a six-day visit to China that will be closely watched in Washington for any signs of Australian kowtowing.
Speaking in Malaysia, Senator Wong said Australia didn't agree with all of Donald Trump's policies, but strongly supported an ongoing US presence in the Indo-Pacific as a vital counterweight to China's efforts to shift the regional balance of power in its favour.
"China continues to assert its strategic influence and project its military power further into our region," Senator Wong told the Institute for Strategic and International Studies.
"And we have seen the worrying pace of China's nuclear and conventional military build-up, without the transparency that the region expects."
The sharp assessment comes as Taiwan's envoy to Australia, Douglas Hsu, warns China is intensifying military and "grey zone" threats against the self-governed territory, prompting Taipei to step up its preparations for a potential invasion.
Writing in The Australian, Mr Hsu urges the Albanese government to help bring Taiwan further into the international system by ramping up bilateral ties and
He says the territory is "perfectly positioned to meet the high standards" of the 12-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership, which Australia is chairing this year. Beijing is also pushing to join the CPTPP, while vehemently opposing Taiwan's application, and is expected to ramp up lobbying of the Prime Minister over the issue during his visit from Saturday.
Mr Albanese will have his fourth meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the trip but has been unable to secure his first face-to-face with the US President amid a snap Pentagon review of the AUKUS submarine pact and his government's refusal to agree to the Trump administration's demands for a near doubling of the defence budget.
The Prime Minister pushed back against the White House in a speech last Saturday, lauding wartime Labor prime minister John Curtin for refusing to outsource foreign policy and giving Australians the confidence to speak "for ourselves, as a sovereign state". He reportedly sharpened his remarks in a subsequent question-and-answer session, saying he was a supporter of AUKUS, "but that doesn't mean that we are subservient to any other country"
Anthony Albanese is caught between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping as he tries to balance Australia's strategic interests and its relationship with its biggest trading partner.
Senator Wong, in Malaysia for meetings with Southeast Asian counterparts, sought to set the tone for Mr Albanese's China visit, urging Beijing to "wield its strength in a way that contributes to its security and economic resilience". She said Australia was realistic about China's intention to assert its influence as a major regional power, while urging it not to provoke a clash with the US. "None of us, including the United States, seeks military confrontation with China – in the South China Sea, the East China Sea or across the Taiwan Strait," Senator Wong said.
"What we seek is a balance of power, where no country dominates and no country is dominated."
She said Australia's realistic assessment of China's place in the region was behind the government's efforts to stabilise the Australia-China relationship, and strengthen its partnerships with the rest of the region.
Her speech follows a warning by Treasurer Jim Chalmers that Australia will continue to rebuff Chinese calls for the weakening of foreign investment rules barring its companies from taking stakes in critical infrastructure, energy, data and minerals ventures.
Mr Albanese will also push back on Beijing's call for co-operation on artificial intelligence amid growing security concerns in the West over Chinese technology, including its increasingly ubiquitous internet-connected cars. But he will talk up the prospect of expanded business links between Australia and its biggest trading partner, which will be underscored by a major Business Council of Australia delegation comprising the chiefs of 14 of the nation's biggest companies including Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue Metals Group, ANZ and Macquarie Group.
China is rapidly developing its military capabilities under Xi Jinping, who is determined to shift the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Picture: AP
The Prime Minister will depart for China's financial capital, Shanghai, on Saturday morning, before heading to Beijing and on to Chengdu, where Chinese officials will likely seek to corral him into a photo opportunity with one or more pandas at the world's largest panda-breeding centre.
In a sign of Australia's lack of trust in Beijing, Australian officials accompanying Mr Albanese on the trip have been ordered to leave personal and government devices at home and travel with "burner" phones and laptops, due to the constant threat posed by cyber spies.
Mr Hsu, head of Taiwan's Economic and Cultural Office in Australia, says Mr Albanese must exercise caution during his visit. "While dialogue and mutually beneficial co-operation are important, Australians know successful engagement requires an understanding that China's political system prioritises state power over all else," he writes. "Under Xi Jinping's rule, the last 13 years has seen a dramatic transformation in China's strategic posture and military ambitions. His China has militarised the South China Sea in defiance of international law. It has imposed its will on Hong Kong, undercutting its long-agreed autonomy. It has weaponised trade and levied punitive trade sanctions on Taiwan's agricultural products, as well as Australian wine, beef, barley and coal."
Taiwan is beginning 10 days of exercises aimed at readying the territory for a potential invasion by China, which Mr Xi has ordered his forces to be ready to undertake by 2027."