The beer halls are buzzing, and the polling stations are whispering a truth that's got Berlin's suits sweating through their tailored jackets. In April 2025, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) did the unthinkable: it clawed its way to 26%, topping a Forsa poll as the nation's most popular party for the first time ever. Picture it—ordinary Germans, from Dresden's cobblestone streets to Bavaria's rolling hills, raising a stein to a party that's been called everything from "far-right" to "neo-Nazi" by the chattering class. Meanwhile, in the Bundestag's marble halls, the establishment's clutching pearls, plotting a ban that could lock up the AfD's leaders and scatter its voters like leaves in a storm. Crack open the champagne, sure, but keep an eye on the handcuffs glinting in the corner.
I imagine a mechanic in Leipzig, call him Hans, scrolling X on his break. He's not a skinhead or a swastika-waver; he's just fed up. His town's changed—streets feel less safe, rents are up, and the news keeps preaching "diversity" while ignoring his worries. The AfD, with its talk of border controls and "remigration," feels like a megaphone for his quiet gripes. Hans isn't alone. The February 2025 election saw the AfD double its seats to 152, grabbing 20.8% of the vote, the best far-right showing since World War II. Now, Forsa's poll has them edging out the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at 25%, while the Social Democrats (SPD) limp at 15%. The Greens and Left Party? Down to 11% and 9%. If votes were cast today, the CDU-SPD coalition wouldn't even scrape a majority.
This isn't just numbers—it's a revolt. Hans and millions like him are done with the old guard. Angela Merkel's 2015 migrant wave, over a million strong, left scars: high-profile attacks, strained welfare, and a sense the government cared more about newcomers than locals. Economic woes—stagnation, trade war fears—piled on. The AfD, born in 2013 as a Euroskeptic upstart, morphed into a nativist juggernaut, railing against open borders and climate policies they call elitist. Alice Weidel, the party's sharp-tongued co-leader, crows on X: "The people want change, not more CDU-SPD mush." Young women on TikTok echo her, citing fear of public spaces as their reason to back AfD. One posts: "I'm scared to ride the train. The AfD hasn't hurt anyone, unlike others."
But the elites aren't toasting Hans' rebellion. They're sharpening knives. The SPD's Ralf Stegner, a Left-wing firebrand, demands a ban if the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) labels the AfD "confirmed Right-wing extremist." He's got no "sense of humour" about cosying up to "enemies of democracy." Sixteen constitutional lawyers, per DW, are pushing the Federal Constitutional Court to outlaw the party, citing its "xenophobic" rhetoric—think Weidel's jabs at "headscarf girls" and "knife men." The AfD's deportation fantasies, like honorary chairman Alexander Gauland's quip about "disposing" a German-Turkish politician "in Anatolia," fuel the case. A ban vote looms in the Bundestag, with 113 MPs already signed on last November.
Here's the rub: the establishment's panicking because they're losing. The CDU's Friedrich Merz, chancellor-in-waiting, promised to "slay" the AfD but watched it tie his party at 24% in April's INSA poll, then overtake it. His coalition with the SPD, sealed April 9, 2025, is a desperate firewall to freeze out the AfD, who'd need a miracle to govern given every major party's "no coalition" pledge. But cracks are showing. CDU vice-chair Jens Spahn, a big fish, calls for "calm" and says the AfD deserves committee roles, given its voter haul. That's heresy to Stegner, who sees it as a "stress test" for the coalition. The CDU's Günter Krings pushes back, telling Welt a ban's not automatic—it's a legal long shot and a political gift to the AfD's "victim myth."
I see Hans chuckling over his phone. Banning a party with 26% support—millions of votes—smells like autocracy, not democracy. Sahra Wagenknecht, the Left-wing BSW leader, calls it "disgraceful," warning it'll only juice the AfD's numbers. Even SPD's Stephan Weil admits a failed ban would be "a feast" for Weidel's crew. Germany's constitution allows party bans, but only for clear anti-democratic acts, like the 1952 Nazi Party case. The AfD's rhetoric is strong, sure, but it's not armed rebellion. A ban could backfire, martyring the party and alienating voters like Hans further.
Why's the AfD soaring? It's not just migration, though that's huge—Merz's coalition plans to turn away asylum seekers at borders, a nod to AfD pressure. It's economics, too. Germany's stagnating, with Trump's tariffs looming. The AfD's climate scepticism, slamming Green policies as "woke" and unaffordable, resonates with workers facing rising bills. Young men, per NPR, flock to the AfD—over 25% backed it in February—while women lean Left, splitting the youth vote. TikTok's a battlefield, with AfD influencers like Naomi Seibt feeding Elon Musk's pro-AfD rants to global audiences. Musk himself, hosting Weidel for chats, calls the AfD Germany's saviour, though his Tesla brand's taking hits for it.
Back to Hans. He's not popping champagne yet. He's watching, wary, knowing the elites might crush his vote to save their "democracy." I'm with him, raising a glass to the underdog but bracing for the chains. Germany's at a crossroads: listen to the 26%, or silence them and pray they don't roar louder. History's got a funny way of picking the winner.
"The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has hit a historic watermark, and is now the most popular party in Germany for the first time ever, reaching 26 percent. The poll, from Forsa, shows the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in second place with 25 percent.
If the vote were held today, the two parties set to enter government, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the CDU, would not have enough votes to enter government. The SPD is at 15 percent, giving the two parties a combined total of 40 percent. The poll showed that support for the Greens dropped a point to 11 percent and the Left Party also dropped a point to 9 percent.
The news comes at a time when the left is racing to vote on a ban on the AfD in the German parliament, the Bundestag, a topic covered in detail by Remix News. However, despite initial reports that the CDU would back such a ban, the picture is becoming muddier.
For one, there are more and more voices in the CDU and its sister party, the CSU, who are calling for "more calm" towards the AfD, including from the influential vice-chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, Jens Spahn. Spahn even said that the AfD should be able to lead some of the committee in the Bundestag, which would give the party more say and power. Given that it received the second-most votes during the German election, it should, like all other parties, have access to these committees, but many want to shut it out completely, especially from intelligence committees.
The issue could lead to a major split in the coalition between the CDU and SPD. SPD Bundestag member Ralf Stegner told Welt his party has "absolutely no sense of humor" on any attempt to go easy on the AfD.
He said any kind of rapprochement would represent a "maximum stress test" for the new coalition govenrment.
"Anyone who wants to form a coalition with the SPD cannot join forces with right-wing radicals. And joining forces also means voting for enemies of democracy," he said. The MP, known for his left-wing views, instead is calling for a ban on the AfD if the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) classifies the party as "confirmed right-wing extremist."
"If the Office for the Protection of the Constitution upgrades its classification, then we also have a duty to work towards initiating a ban on the party," Stegner said.
However, Welt reports that CDU is rejecting an "automoatic" approach to banning the AfD.
The CDU/CSU, in turn, rejects this automatic approach: "To derive an obligation to initiate ban proceedings from an upgrade by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution clearly ignores the legal situation," said Günter Krings, legal policy spokesman for the CDU-CSU parliamentary group. He instead wants to "fight the AfD politically by exposing its extremism…The best recipe against the AfD is concrete successes by the new federal government, especially in migration, security, and the economy."
He also claims that initiating proceedings "would only make the AfD rub its hands together and use it as free support for its victim myth."
Meanwhile, the AfD is slamming calls for a ban. "The renewed call for an AfD ban is completely unfounded and would be completely hopeless," said Alice Weidel, the co-leader of the AfD. "Instead of engaging in absurd and anti-democratic ban fantasies, Mr. Stegner should be thinking about why his party has been losing voters in droves for years."
Sahra Wagenknecht, who is the leader of the left-wing BSW, told Welt: "First gigantic electoral fraud, then the ban debate: could it get any more stupid? The fact that such proposals are now coming from the self-proclaimed 'democratic center,' of all places, is disgraceful and will further strengthen the AfD."
She went so far as to say it was a purely autocratic move.
"No question, in an autocracy, the 'problem' would be solved in exactly the same way."
Even in the SPD, there is debate about a ban.
SPD Minister President of Saxony Stephan Weil (SPD) warned a ban could also fail, which would be "a feast for the AfD."