Once celebrated as the "Lucky Country," a term coined by Donald Horne in 1964 to describe Australia's prosperity despite its leaders' mediocrity, Australia is losing its sheen. Roy Morgan's 2025 survey paints a grim picture: a "fragile nation" gripped by economic distrust, with consumer confidence languishing below the neutral 100 mark for over three years, the longest such stretch this century. The social fabric is fraying, and nowhere is this more evident than in our home, Melbourne, where skyrocketing crime, economic stagnation, and cultural division signal a broader malaise. Australia's leaders, fixated on short-term electoral gains and resource exports, are steering the nation toward potential social collapse, sacrificing long-term security for fleeting prosperity.
Horne's phrase was always laced with irony, a nod to Australia's luck in resources and geography rather than visionary governance. Today, that luck is running dry. The Roy Morgan survey highlights a nation mired in distrust, with the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index stuck at 87.9 in May 2025, far below the positive threshold of 100 last seen in March 2022. This persistent gloom, sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic, reflects a deeper shift. Australians no longer trust institutions, brands, or leaders, with net trust plummeting into negative territory since 2020. The pandemic exposed systemic weaknesses, overreliance on global supply chains, inadequate public services, and a growing disconnect between elites and citizens, that have yet to be addressed.
Economic indicators tell only part of the story. Despite falling interest rates (down to 3.85% after a 0.25% cut in May 2025) and inflation easing to 4.5%, consumer sentiment remains stagnant. Households are cutting discretionary spending, businesses are delaying investments, and government revenues are strained, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of economic inertia. The rise in Buy-Now-Pay-Later usage (24.5% of adults annually, 15.9% monthly) signals financial desperation, particularly among younger Australians facing housing unaffordability. X posts echo this despair, with users lamenting Australia's slide from "lucky" to a "woke, 3rd world, crime-ridden, impoverished nation" where working families sleep in cars.
Melbourne, once Australia's cultural and economic jewel, exemplifies this unravelling. Crime rates have surged, with Victoria Police reporting a 10.2% increase in total offenses from 2023 to 2024, including a 15% spike in violent crimes like assaults and robberies. Retail theft in Melbourne's CBD has risen 20% since 2022, driven by cost-of-living pressures and lax enforcement. These figures align with public sentiment on X, where users describe Melbourne as a city "under siege" by crime and social disorder. The city's economic woes compound the issue: youth unemployment in Victoria hovers at 12.8%, and small businesses, battered by lockdowns and inflation, are closing at a rate of 1,200 per month, according to the Australian Retailers Association.
Cultural division further erodes Melbourne's social fabric. The city's progressive policies, including strict net-zero targets and diversity initiatives, have sparked backlash. X users decry "woke" culture and "idiotic" net-zero policies as incompatible with economic survival, pointing to power outages and rising energy costs. Meanwhile, incidents like the 2024 protests over Indigenous recognition and immigration policies have fuelled polarisation, with 62% of Victorians polled by YouGov in 2025 expressing concern over social cohesion. Melbourne's struggles, crime, economic strain, and cultural fragmentation, mirror national trends, suggesting a broader trajectory toward collapse if unchecked.
Australia's leaders are as James Reed argues today at the blog, modern "Pig Iron Bobs," echoing Robert Menzies' short-sighted prioritisation of trade over security during the 1938 Dalfram Dispute. Today's obsession is with exporting iron ore to China, 82.9% of Australia's iron ore went to China in 2020, despite geopolitical risks. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's push for "green iron" exports to fuel China's net-zero goals ignores the strategic peril of empowering a rival whose Pacific ambitions threaten Australia's sovereignty. X posts warn of a future as a "Chinese vassal state," with Chinese communist "social credit" systems and eroded freedoms, as James Reed warns.
This myopia stems from a political class focused on electoral cycles, not survival. The Albanese government's re-election in 2025, bolstered by short-term tax cuts and interest rate relief, masks deeper failures. Business confidence, while up to 99.6 in May 2025, remains below the neutral 100, with industries like agriculture languishing at 68.0. Defense spending, at 2% of GDP, falls short of the 3.5% needed to counter regional threats, leaving Australia vulnerable. Leaders ignore these red flags, banking on resource wealth to paper over cracks in the social and economic order.
Social collapse doesn't require apocalyptic chaos, it begins with eroded trust, fractured communities, and economic fragility. Australia is ticking these boxes. Roy Morgan notes that COVID-19 "permanently altered" how Australians view institutions, fostering a risk-averse public that spends less and doubts more. In Melbourne, rising crime and unemployment alienate youth, while cultural debates over identity and policy deepen divides. Nationally, overreliance on China risks economic coercion, as seen in 2020's trade sanctions on barley and wine. If China secures alternative iron ore sources, like Guinea's Simandou, Australia's economy could implode, with GDP growth already at a sluggish 1.3% in 2025.
X users capture the public's disillusionment, calling Australia a "dumb country" undone by "bad voting choices" and "talentless leaders." Only 33% of Australians believe the country is heading in the right direction, per Roy Morgan's Government Confidence metric, while 51.5% see it on the wrong path. Without trust, economic momentum stalls, and social cohesion crumbles, paving the way for collapse, a state where institutions fail, communities fracture, and external threats exploit vulnerabilities.
Australia can avoid this fate, but it requires leaders with foresight, not election-chasing pragmatists. Diversifying trade, reducing China's 82.9% share of iron ore exports, is critical. Boosting defence spending to 3.5% of GDP would signal seriousness about sovereignty. Domestically, addressing crime through stricter enforcement and economic relief for small businesses and youth could stabilise cities like Melbourne. Restoring trust demands transparency, leaders must confront institutional failures head-on, not hide behind tax cuts or green rhetoric.
Citizens, too, must act. The Dalfram workers of 1938 showed that ordinary Australians can force change; today's voters and workers must demand accountability, rejecting leaders who sell out the future for short-term gain. X posts urging resistance to "communist" drift or "woke" overreach reflect a public ready to fight for the Lucky Country.
Australia is not yet lost, but the cracks are widening. Melbourne's struggles, economic distrust, and strategic myopia are warnings. The Lucky Country can be reclaimed, but only if Australians, leaders and citizens alike, choose survival over complacency. The alternative is a nation that, like Horne warned, squanders its luck under second-rate leadership, sliding into a collapse of its own making.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/07/australians-no-longer-believe-in-the-lucky-country/