While it seems likely that the Voice referendum will deliver a No result, perhaps even in the swing state of South Australia, we should not relax, and man polling booths in one’s local area on this Saturday. But, what happens when the No side wins?
The Left will throw its usual temper tantrum and white racism will be blamed and all that. But, that is the least of our problems, as both the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are open to yet another referendum, on just constitutional recognition. That will not be tomorrow, and both of these guys need to be replaced. But be sure that within days there will be legislation to establish everything the Voice would have done, without the constitutional amendment. The constitutional amendment will be some years down the track.
I would hope that it may be possible to mount a constitutional legal challenge to setting up a Voice by legislation, as the Voice has been has been set up in some states. The argument may be that after the referendum, the people rejected the idea of such a body, and the federal government is exceeding its power in setting up a third chamber of parliament, contrary to the constitution. Most of the constitutional arguments against the present Voice could be made to knock over the legislation.
“At a South Australian shopping centre, Philip Colebatch is handing out flyers for the Indigenous voice to parliament no campaign.
And as the campaign heads into its final days, he’s getting a “sniff” from voters he’s talking to that “it’s leaning to no”.
“I just get the nods and the winks,” he says.
South Australia has become a key battleground state in the lead up to the voice referendum. On Friday – just over a week from the vote – all state and territory leaders descended on Adelaide, including the sole Liberal, Tasmania’s Jeremy Rockcliff. They all support the federal voice to parliament.
The shadow Indigenous Australians minister and leading no campaigner, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, was also due to arrive in Adelaide on Friday evening.
Anthony Albanese announced the date of the vote in Adelaide due to South Australia’s potential to be the swing state that decides the outcome, and both the yes and no campaign have had disproportionately high ad spends in the state.
That’s because the yes campaign needs to win four states and the national result to carry the required “double majority” for constitutional change, meaning voice supporters will need to claim Tasmania and South Australia.
But polling for South Australia has dipped below a winnable level, and according to people on the ground, many people are voting no.
Another no campaigner, Alistair Crooks, says the shopping centre crowds are fairly polarised – and his years on polling booths have taught him you can’t always take them at their word. He, too, has heard more support for the no campaign, “but that’s skewed,” he says.
“It’s older people who’ve got the time to come down here. The young are still working. I don’t think we can read anything too much into it.”
As she hands out pamphlets for the Yes23 campaign just metres away from Colebatch, Kate Baldock says it’s a “mixed vibe” among the people she has talked to, with about 60% backing the no vote.
With early voting opening earlier this week, any last ditch campaigning may be too late.
Most of the volunteers Guardian Australia spoke to said voters haven’t asked many questions as they head inside – and if they did ask questions, it was often to get directions, to ask about ballot papers, or hint at conspiracy theories.
Baldock said some people stopped to ask questions about how the voice would work, and what difference it would make – particularly for healthcare – but many walked straight in.
“I think people are voting early because they know what they’re going to vote for. That nothing’s going to change their mind,” she says.”