Hu Wei is the Vice Chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counsellor's Office of the Chinese State Council and the President of the Shanghai Public Policy Research Association. The article first appeared in English at Affirmative Right.com. It gives an alternative position to the line taken by bloggers here, and for balance is worth reviewing. In a nutshell, “the United States will regain leadership in the western world, and the West will be more united and unified.” I don’t see that happening, but what do I know?
https://affirmativeright.blogspot.com/2022/03/the-russo-ukrainian-war-and-chinas.html#more
“The Russo-Ukrainian war is the most serious geopolitical conflict since World War II and will have greater global consequences than 9/11. At present, China needs to accurately judge the trend of this war and its impact on the international pattern, respond flexibly, make strategic choices that conform to the long-term interests of the Chinese nation, and strive for a relatively favourable external environment for China.
Russia's "special military operations" against Ukraine have caused great differences at home, and supporters and opponents are inseparable. This article does not represent any party, but in the name of a scholar, I would like to objectively analyse the possible consequences of war and propose countermeasures on this basis for the judgment and reference of the highest decision-making level in China.
- Prediction of the direction of the Russo-Ukrainian war
(1) Putin is struggling to achieve his intended goals, and Russia is in trouble. The purpose of Putin's operation is to crush Ukraine through blitzkrieg, change the Ukrainian leadership, cultivate a pro-Russian government, completely solve the Ukrainian problem, and thus divert a domestic crisis. However, the blitzkrieg failed, Russia was unable to support a protracted war, the cost of expanding the war is high, the launching of a nuclear war would completely stand against the world and has no chance of winning, and the situation at home and abroad is becoming increasingly unfavourable. Even if the Russians pay a heavy price and occupy Kiev and establish a puppet government, it would not mean final victory. At present, Putin's best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions, but what is not available on the battlefield is also difficult to get at the negotiating table. In any case, this military operation made irreparable mistakes.
(2) War or further escalation does not preclude the West from eventually becoming involved in the war. Although the cost of expanding the war is high, with Putin's character and power, it is likely that he will not give up, and the Russo-Ukrainian war may escalate beyond Ukraine, even including the option of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, the United States and Europe will not be able to stay out of it, triggering a world war or even a nuclear war. If so, it will cause a great catastrophe for mankind, and the United States and Russia will also have a final showdown, and Russia's military strength cannot match NATO's, and Putin will lose even worse.
(3) Even if Russia throws its national strength into desperate efforts, and finally reluctantly occupies Ukraine, it is still a hot potato, and Russia will be saddled with heavy burdens and overwhelmed from then on. In this case, whether Zelensky is alive or not, Ukraine will most likely set up a government-in-exile to challenge Russia for a long time, Russia will suffer from both western sanctions and rebellion in Ukraine, the front line will be stretched for a long time, the domestic economic situation will be unsustainable, and in the long run it will be dragged down, and this cycle will not exceed several years.
(4) The political situation in Russia may change or be overthrown by the West. Putin's blitzkrieg failed, Russia's hope of victory was slim, Western sanctions have reached an unprecedented level, the domestic economy and people's livelihoods have been seriously affected, anti-war and anti-Putin forces have increased, and the possibility of mutiny in Russia's political situation cannot be ruled out. With Russia's economy on the brink of collapse, even without the defeat in the Russo-Ukrainian war, Putin will have a hard time sustaining it. If Putin falls because of civil strife, coups, or other reasons, Russia will be even less likely to confront the West, will succumb to the West, or even be further dismembered, and Russia's great power status will end.
- The impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the international order
(1) The United States will regain leadership in the western world, and the West will be more united and unified. At present, public opinion believes that the Ukrainian war means the complete collapse of U.S. hegemony, but in fact, the Russo-Ukrainian war will pull France and Germany back to the NATO defence framework that they intended to get rid of, and Europe's dream of realizing independent diplomacy and independent defence will be shattered. Germany has significantly increased its military budget, and Switzerland, Sweden and other countries have abandoned neutrality. Nord Stream 2 was also shelved indefinitely, and Europe's dependence on U.S. natural gas is bound to increase. The United States and Europe will more closely form a community of common destiny, and the leadership of the United States in the Western world will be reinforced.
(2) The "Iron Curtain" will fall again, not only from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, but also to form a final showdown between the Western-dominated camp and its competitors. The West will draw a line between democracies and dictatorships, and define differences with Russia as a struggle between democracy and dictatorship. The new Iron Curtain no longer draws a line between the two camps of socialism and capitalism, nor is it limited to the Cold War, but is a life-and-death battle between Western democracy and anti-western democracy. The iron plate of the Western world under the iron curtain will have a siphon effect on other countries, the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy will be consolidated, and Japan and other countries will further closely follow the United States. The United States will build an unprecedentedly broad democratic united front.
(3) Western power will grow significantly, NATO will continue to expand, and the influence of the United States in the non-western world will also increase. After the Russo-Ukrainian War, Russia's political transformation in any way will greatly weaken the anti-western forces in the world. The scene after the upheavals of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe in 1991 may repeat itself, the ideological finale may reappear, the resurgence of the Third Wave of democratization will lose momentum, and more third world countries will embrace the West. The West will have more "hegemony" in both military and values systems, and hard and soft power will reach new heights.
(4) China will be more isolated under the established framework. For these reasons, if China does not take measures to actively respond, it will encounter further containment by the United States and the West. After Putin's fall, the United States will change from facing two strategic competitors, China and Russia, to locking in China for strategic containment. Europe will further cut off China, Japan will become the vanguard of anti-China, South Korea will further swing to the United States, the rest of the World will have to choose sides and produce a herd effect, and Taiwan will also join the anti-China chorus. China faces not only military encirclement by the United States and NATO, the Quad Alliance (US, Japan, India, and Australia), and AUKUS, but also faces challenges from Western values and institutions.
China's strategic choices
(1) China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to distance itself as soon as possible. The escalation of the conflict between Russia and the West has helped divert the attention of the United States from China, and in this sense China should be happy to see it succeed and even support Putin, but only if Russia does not fail. If Putin loses power, China is in the same boat as Putin and will be affected by it. Unless Putin is able to win with China's support, the outlook is bleak at the moment, and China doesn't have enough strength to hold up Russia. The basic law of international politics is that "there are no eternal friends, no eternal enemies, only eternal interests". Faced with the current international situation, China can only proceed from safeguarding its own best interests, choose the lesser of two evils, and unload the burden of Russia as soon as possible. At present, it is estimated that there is still a window of one or two weeks, and no matter how late, China may lose room for manoeuvre. It must be decided immediately.
(2) Avoid falling behind at both ends, by abandoning neutrality and choosing the mainstream position of the World. At present, China's position and choice in the international arena is formally trying to take the middle way, and to give no offense at both ends, including abstaining from votes at the UN security council and the UN general assembly, and supporting Russia while also trying to appease Ukraine. However, this position does not actually meet Russia's needs, while it also angers Ukraine and its supporters and sympathizers, including most of the world's countries. In some cases, ostensibly neutrality is a wise choice, but it does not apply to this war, and China has nothing to gain this time. Given that China has always advocated respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it can only side with most countries in the world so as not to be further isolated. This position is also beneficial to the settlement of the Taiwan issue.
(3) Achieve a strategic breakthrough as much as possible to avoid being further isolated by the West. By cutting ties with Putin and abandoning its neutral stance, it helps to build China's international image and take the opportunity to ease relations with the United States and the west through various efforts. Although this is difficult and requires great wisdom, it is the best choice for the future. Some people believe that the geopolitical dispute in Europe triggered by the war in Ukraine will greatly delay the strategic shift of the United States from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region, but they should not be overly optimistic. There is already a consensus in the United States that Europe is important, but China is more important, and that the primary goal of the United States is to contain China as the dominant force in the Indo-Pacific region. Under such circumstances, the Russo-Ukrainian War should be used to make appropriate strategic adjustments that change the hostile attitude of the United States toward China, and then get rid of China's isolation. This is the top priority facing China. The bottom line is to prevent the United States and the West from imposing joint sanctions on China.
(4) Stop the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars, and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. Since Putin has explicitly called for Russia's strategic deterrent to enter a special state of readiness, the Russo-Ukrainian War may spiral out of control. If Russia provokes a world war or even a nuclear war, it will certainly risk the world. In the face of this crisis, and in order to reflect China's positive role as a responsible major country, China must not only stand with Putin, but should also take clear action to try to prevent dangerous acts by Putin. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must play to this unique advantage. The threat to withdraw vital support from Putin is likely to end the war, or at least prevent Putin escalating it. The result if this is that China would surely win international praise. Not only would this help to overcome China's situation of isolation, but it would also make a top contribution to maintaining world peace, and lead to opportunities to improve relations with the United States and the West.”