The British political landscape has long been dominated by a two-party system, with Labour and the Conservatives alternating power for over a century. This duopoly, as noted in YouGov's May 13, 2025, analysis, fosters a perception that only these parties are viable contenders for government, with 65–68% of Britons believing they will remain dominant for at least a decade. Historically, voters have been reluctant to abandon established parties due to loyalty, habit, or fear of "wasting" votes on smaller parties like Reform UK, which only secured 14% of the vote and five MPs in the 2024 general election. The Ipsos poll from July 2024 shows Labour at 39% and Conservatives at 22%, dwarfing Reform's early post-election support, indicating that voters initially clung to familiar options despite dissatisfaction.
This inertia was reinforced by tactical voting, with 17% of voters in July 2024 choosing parties to block others rather than support their preferred option. For example, Liberal Democrat and Green voters, wary of a Conservative resurgence, backed Labour, diluting Reform's early momentum. Posts on X, such as @Nigel_Farage's July 3, 2024, claim that voting for Labour or Conservatives is "more of the same," highlight Reform's struggle to break through this entrenched mindset. The public's slow shift reflects a psychological barrier: abandoning a two-party framework requires a critical mass of frustration, which only crystallised after Labour's post-election missteps and Conservative implosion.
The mainstream media and political establishment have historically marginalised populist parties like Reform UK, framing them as fringe or protest movements rather than credible alternatives. The Breitbart article notes Farage's assertion that both Labour and Conservatives have "ground down" voters with broken promises, yet media coverage often downplayed Reform's potential. For instance, The Guardian's May 3, 2025, coverage of Reform's local election gains emphasises fragmentation rather than Reform's ascendancy, while the BBC's analysis focuses on Labour and Conservative losses. This framing delayed public recognition of Reform as a serious contender, as voters relied on media narratives that promoted establishment parties.
Reform has never had as much space due to issues like immigration and public service cuts, suggesting that media reluctance to legitimise Farage's party stemmed from its anti-establishment stance on issues like Net Zero and the ECHR. The Telegraph's March 31, 2025, report on Farage topping "best PM" polls indicates that only after consistent polling gains did media begin to take Reform seriously. Institutional bias, including the Conservative-controlled House of Commons (121 seats vs. Reform's 5), further obscured Reform's rise, as parliamentary opposition status is tied to seat count, not public sentiment, delaying the "penny dropping" until the May 2025 Ipsos poll.
Reform UK's internal limitations also slowed its recognition as the main opposition. Initially structured as a top-down operation under Farage's control, the party faced criticism for lacking grassroots infrastructure and policy depth. The Guardian's April 5, 2025, report notes that over 60 of Reform's local election candidates were Conservative defectors, suggesting a reliance on recycled politicians rather than a robust, independent base. A January 2025 defection of ten Reform councillors, citing Farage's "autocratic" leadership, underscores internal strife that damaged credibility. Reform's local election wins relied on online hype rather than local groundwork, highlighting organisational immaturity.
Reform's policy platform, while spot on with immigration (56% of supporters cite "change" as a driver, per Ipsos February 2025), was initially vague on issues like the NHS, where Labour held a 40% trust advantage. The BBC's June 18, 2024, analysis of Reform's manifesto criticises its NHS privatisation proposals as potentially harmful, which may have deterred voters seeking comprehensive governance. Only after professionalising, e.g., restructuring as Reform 2025 Limited in February 2025 and appointing a vetting head, did Reform gain traction, as evidenced by its 678 council seat wins on May 1, 2025. These growing pains delayed public confidence until Reform demonstrated electoral viability.
The public's slow recognition of Reform UK as the main opposition reflects the gradual build-up of disillusionment with Labour and the Conservatives, which reached a tipping point by May 2025. Labour's landslide victory in July 2024 (412 seats) created a brief "honeymoon," but by September 2024, Ipsos reported 50% of Britons, including 26% of Labour voters, were disappointed with Keir Starmer's government. Policies like cutting winter fuel subsidies for retirees and raising taxes on businesses and farmers alienated voters, as noted by The Washington Post on May 2, 2025. Starmer's approval plummeted, with 57% expressing disappointment by May 2025, and 43% predicting a leadership change before 2029.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, faced a "bloodbath" in the 2024 general election (121 seats) and local elections (676 seats lost), as Kemi Badenoch admitted in The Telegraph. Her leadership failed to resonate, with 49% expecting her replacement before 2029, up from 38% in November 2024. The party's "toxic brand," as @Nigel_Farage's January 14, 2025, X post claims, stemmed from 14 years of perceived mismanagement, including Liz Truss's economic debacle and Rishi Sunak's inability to close the polling gap (39% Labour vs. 22% Conservative in July 2024). Reform capitalised on this, with 36% of voters considering it by February 2025, a 6% rise since July 2024, per Ipsos.
Key issues, immigration, cost of living, and public services, amplified Reform's appeal. Ipsos's April 25, 2025, poll identified immigration as the top concern for Reform voters, aligning with Farage's pledge to halt non-essential migration and exit the ECHR. The 36,000 illegal Channel crossings in 2024, coupled with Labour's failure to curb them, fuelled public frustration. Net Zero's high energy costs, which Reform vows to scrap, further resonated, especially amid fears of blackouts (per The Telegraph's May 10, 2025, report). These grievances, combined with Reform's 30% projected national vote share in the May 2025 local elections, finally shifted public perception.
The May 1, 2025, local elections were the catalyst for the "penny dropping." Reform's 678 council seat wins, control of councils like Doncaster and Durham, and victories in two mayoral races (Greater Lincolnshire, Hull and East Yorkshire) demonstrated electoral strength, as reported by the BBC. The Runcorn and Helsby by-election, won by a mere six votes, added a fifth MP, Sarah Pochin, boosting Reform's parliamentary presence. These results, coupled with the Ipsos poll showing Reform at 37% as the main opposition, marked a psychological threshold, as Ipsos notes: "If they think a party can win, it may make them more likely to actually vote for them." The public's growing acceptance of Reform as a "main party" (44% by May 2025, up from 19% in July 2024, per YouGov) reflects this shift, driven by tangible victories rather than abstract polling.
Some argue the public's slow recognition was not a delay but a rational response to Reform's untested status. The party's limited parliamentary presence (five MPs vs. Conservatives' 121) and reliance on Farage's personal brand, as Ben Habib's "Farage is Reform" critique in Reuters (April 30, 2025) suggests, raised doubts about its governance capacity. Labour's early lead on issues like the NHS (68% prioritise it, per Ipsos September 2024) and the Conservatives' historical dominance in rural areas, where Reform later thrived, kept voters hesitant. Additionally, fragmentation favoured multiple parties, Liberal Democrats (17% projected vote share) and Greens (40+ seats), diluting Reform's early gains, as The Guardian's May 3, 2025, analysis notes.
However, these factors underscore the scale of Reform's achievement. Overcoming a century-long two-party system, media scepticism, and internal challenges in under a year reflects the depth of public discontent. The delay was less about Reform's failings and more about the time needed for Labour's missteps (e.g., 61% expect a recession, per Ipsos May 2025) and Conservative collapse to align with Reform's narrative of "change."
The public's delayed recognition of Reform UK as the main opposition, as captured in the May 2025 Ipsos poll, stemmed from entrenched two-party loyalties, media and institutional bias, Reform's organisational growing pains, and the gradual build-up of disillusionment with Labour and the Conservatives. Issues like immigration, Net Zero costs, and public service failures amplified Reform's appeal, but it was the May 2025 local election landslide, 678 council seats, mayoral wins, and a by-election victory, that finally shifted perceptions. The "penny dropped" when Reform proved it could win, not just protest, overcoming a century of political inertia to challenge a failing establishment. If trends continue, Farage's vision of "fixing broken Britain," could reshape the political landscape by 2029, and save Britain from the destruction planned by the mainstream parties.
"The British public now sees Nigel Farage's Reform UK party as the main opposition to the Labour government, as the neo-liberal 'Conservatives' continue to bleed support since their disastrous defeats in last year's general elections and the local England votes this month.
A representative survey of British voters between 18 and 75 years old conducted by Ipsos has found that while the Tories remain the de jure opposition in the House of Commons, more voters see Reform as the de facto opposition party to the government.
The poll found that 37 per cent see the Farage-led party as the main opposition party and the most likely to lead the next government if Labour falls at the next general election. This was compared to the Kemi Badenoch-led Conservative Party at 33 per cent.
The growing confidence that Reform will become the next government comes in the wake of the party securing a landslide victory in the local England council elections on May 1st. Reform picked up 678 council seats, while the Conservatives lost 676 and the Labour Party lost 187.
The Ipsos survey also found that 39 per cent of the public viewed Nigel Farage as the most likely candidate to become the next prime minister, compared to just 25 per cent for Tory leader Badenoch. Ipsos noted that this was a "significant shift since December 2024."
Meanwhile, the poll found that half of the country believes that Prime Minister Starmer is performing badly in his role, an increase of five points since March. Conversely, just 24 per cent said that they thought Starmer is performing well in his office, and 57 per cent said that they are disappointed with the Labour government, including 36 per cent of voters who backed the party in the 2024 general election.
Starmer's slumping ratings have led voters to question whether he will remain in office until the next election, with 43 per cent predicting a leadership change before 2029. While an equal number believe he will stay in power, this represented a nine point drop since November.
There is also a lack of confidence in Badenoch's future as leader of the Conservatives, with 49 per cent expecting her to be replaced before the next election, an increase from 38 per cent in November.
On the other hand, the survey found that Reform is the most confident party in terms of delivering a positive change for Britain, with 37 per cent, compared to 32 per cent for Labour, 30 per cent for the Liberal Democrats, 28 per cent for the Greens, and just 24 per cent for the Conservatives. The Farage-led party also came in first place in confidence in running the country effectively, with 36 per cent, followed by Labour, which had 33 per cent.
Over the weekend, Mr Farage laid out key parts of his party's plans for governing should they win the next election, including a "halt" on immigration with the aim of reducing population increases through mass migration to zero. Reform would also leave the deportation-blocking European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), "so illegal immigrants who cross the Channel will be barred from making asylum claims," he said. Additionally, Farage said that his party would end the "racket of family reunions and student 'over-stayers'".
The Reform boss also vowed to "abolish" the Net Zero green agenda, which seeks to cut carbon emissions to "net zero" by the year 2050. The agenda, which has contributed to Britain having some of the world's most expensive energy prices, has been "disastrous" for the people of the UK, Farage argued. Instead, Reform would "revive our North Sea oil and gas industry" and "use Rolls-Royce small modular nuclear reactors to power towns around Britain," he said.
The populist party would also "ban two-tier justice" and ensure that "diversity hires will be consigned to the dustbin as well" to foster a "meritocracy where people are judged by what they give, not by what they take."
"Millions of Britons have lost hope. I don't blame them. For too long, both Labour and the Conservatives have ground them down by reneging on their promises, making the wrong decisions and disrupting lives at the stroke of an ill-informed minister's pen," Farage wrote.
"I fought for Brexit and won. I never changed my beliefs and I repaid the trust that millions placed in me. Becoming your next prime minister is the biggest challenge of my life but the stakes could not be higher for all of us.
"I will repay those who put their trust in me. I will not let the country down. If there is one lesson that was given by the historic election results on May 1, it is that change can happen via the ballot box. If you want Reform, you must vote for it."