Let's take a bit of a break from issues of social breakdown and impending collapse and look to the skies and beyond. If asteroid 2024 YR4, a roughly 60-metre space rock, were to strike the Moon on December 22, 2032, the effects on Earth would be minimal for humans on the surface, but could pose challenges for space infrastructure and offer a rare celestial spectacle. With a 4.3% probability of impact, as refined by NASA's James Webb Space Telescope observations in May 2025, the scenario is unlikely but significant enough to warrant attention. Below, I detail the potential consequences for Earth, based on scientific studies and simulations, while critically examining the implications.
The Moon's lack of atmosphere means an impact from 2024 YR4, traveling at tens of thousands of miles per hour, would release energy equivalent to about 6.5 megatons of TNT, comparable to a large nuclear explosion. This would create a crater over 1 km in diameter, the largest lunar impact in roughly 5,000 years. However, Earth's surface would face no significant physical danger. The Moon's orbit would remain unchanged, and no catastrophic tidal or gravitational effects would occur.
Earth's atmosphere serves as a robust shield, incinerating most debris smaller than a golf ball. A study by researchers from the University of Western Ontario and Athabasca University, published on arXiv in June 2025, estimates that up to 100 million kilograms of lunar material could be ejected, with up to 10% potentially reaching Earth if the impact occurs on the Moon's near side (a 50% chance). Most of this debris, ranging from millimetre- to centimetre-sized particles, would burn up upon atmospheric entry, posing no threat to people or infrastructure on the ground. Only rocks larger than 1 metre could survive, but these are expected to be rare.
The most noticeable effect for Earth's inhabitants would be a "spectacular" meteor shower, potentially lasting a few days. Dr. Paul Wiegert, a lead researcher, notes that lunar ejecta entering Earth's atmosphere could create a vivid display, visible with small telescopes or even binoculars. However, the shower's brightness might be muted due to the low entry speed of the debris compared to typical meteor showers. This event would be a rare opportunity for skywatchers, offering a once-in-a-lifetime glimpse of lunar material raining down, without the destructive impact of a direct Earth strike.
While humans on Earth would be safe, satellites and spacecraft in low-Earth orbit (LEO) could face significant risks. By 2032, over 10,000 active satellites and 25,000 pieces of space debris will populate LEO, critical for GPS, communications, internet, and weather forecasting. The Canadian study warns that a lunar impact could increase the meteoroid flux by up to 1,000 times, with centimetre-sized debris acting like "bullets" traveling at tens of thousands of metres per second. This could result in hundreds to thousands of impacts across the satellite fleet, potentially damaging or disabling critical infrastructure.
Astronauts on the Moon, if present, would also be at risk from direct impact or flying debris, though no specific missions are confirmed for 2032. The International Space Station is slated for deorbiting in 2031, avoiding this threat, but other platforms, like China's Tiangong station, could be vulnerable. The debris cloud could linger in Earth's orbit for years, posing a long-term hazard to space operations.
Even with a 96% chance of missing the Moon, 2024 YR4's trajectory underscores gaps in current asteroid detection systems. Discovered on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile, the asteroid approached Earth from the Sun's glare, delaying detection. ESA's planned NEOMIR telescope, designed to spot such hidden threats, could have detected it a month earlier, allowing faster risk assessment. The asteroid's 3.1% Earth impact probability in February 2025 triggered a global planetary defence response, later ruled out, but the lingering lunar risk highlights the need for improved tracking.
Further observations in 2028, when 2024 YR4 returns to view, will refine its orbit and confirm or dismiss the lunar impact risk. If the probability rises, NASA could consider a deflection mission, similar to the 2022 DART test, though the four-year window poses logistical challenges. The event serves as a rehearsal for planetary defence, emphasising the importance of early detection and international coordination.
The narrative around 2024 YR4 risks sensationalism, with terms like "city-killer" evoking fear despite the near-zero Earth impact risk (0.005% or 1-in-20,000). The focus on a lunar impact, while scientifically intriguing, may distract from more immediate terrestrial concerns, like institutional accountability in cases like Rotherham or Epstein, where systemic failures directly harm people. However, the asteroid's potential to disrupt satellites underscores humanity's reliance on fragile space infrastructure, a vulnerability that deserves more public discussion. The media's emphasis on the meteor shower's spectacle, while engaging, downplays these practical risks.
In conclusion, if asteroid 2024 YR4 hits the Moon in 2032, Earth's surface will remain unscathed, protected by its atmosphere. The primary effects would be a stunning meteor shower, visible globally, and a significant threat to satellites and potential lunar missions, with debris posing a "bullet-like" hazard in orbit. This low-probability event is a wake-up call for planetary defence, highlighting the need for advanced detection and deflection capabilities. While the odds favour a miss, the scenario reminds us of our place in a dynamic cosmic neighbourhood, where even a lunar strike could ripple back to Earth.
https://globalnews.ca/video/11312728/what-happens-if-this-giant-asteroid-crashes-into-moon/