From a Christian conservative nationalist perspective, the Australian Liberal Party's entrenched moderate factionalism, internal sabotage, and momentum toward woke policies make it an unreliable vehicle for saving conservative Australia. The 2025 election disaster, marked by the Coalition's worst-ever primary vote and Peter Dutton's loss of his seat, underscores the party's structural resistance to reform, as George Christensen has long warned. Instead of banking on a Liberal revival, the path forward lies in unifying conservative minor parties—One Nation, Libertarians, Trumpet of Patriots, Australian Christians, and others—through strategic cooperation while preserving their distinct identities. The goal is not to form government but to force minority Labor governments, crippling their ability to advance secular, globalist agendas. This strategy buys time for a black swan event—such as a catastrophic attack on Pine Gap or a PLA fuel blockade halting Singaporean imports—to shock Australians awake to the nation's vulnerabilities. Below, I outline this case, emphasising cooperation, electoral strategy, and the role of a potential crisis in galvanizing conservative resurgence.

The Liberal Party's dysfunction, as Christensen has highlighted, is not a mere hiccup but a terminal condition. The 2025 election exposed a party riddled with factional wreckers—moderates, and even NSW Right traitors—who sabotaged Dutton's campaign through leaks, delayed ads, and a diluted message. The party's obsession with Teal seats, chasing urban elites who champion progressive causes, alienated its conservative base in the suburbs and bush. Structural barriers, like centralised control over preselections and a moderate-dominated executive, stifle grassroots efforts to reclaim the party. Post-election, the Liberals show no sign of introspection; moderates are pushing a centrist pivot to regain Teal voters, a move that risks further eroding their 29% primary vote (down from 35% in 2022) to minor parties like One Nation, which polled 7–8%.

Christensen's own disillusionment, culminating in his 2022 defection to One Nation, reflects the futility of reform. Historical attempts, like Cory Bernardi's Australian Conservatives, failed to shift the Liberal machine, and the 2022 Loughnane-Hume review offered no bold vision, unlike the transformative 1983 Valder report. With moderates entrenched and the party's center of gravity shifting toward secular globalism, betting on reform is a lost cause. Instead, conservative energy must focus on uniting minor parties to exploit Australia's electoral system and hobble Labor's agenda.

Unifying minor parties does not mean merging them into a single entity, which is impractical given ideological differences and leadership egos. One Nation's populist nationalism, the Libertarians' free-market purism, and Australian Christians' social conservatism are distinct, as are the ambitions of figures like Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer. Instead, a cooperative model—maintaining each party's "turf" while coordinating preferences and messaging—offers a viable path. The aim is to maximise the Right-wing vote, secure enough seats to deny Labor a majority, and force minority governments reliant on crossbench support, thus limiting their capacity for "evil" policies like expanded abortion access, gender ideology in schools, mass replacement level immigration or deeper CCP ties, as noted in blog pieces today.

1.Preference Deal Framework:

Establish a formal agreement where minor parties direct preferences to each other and the Coalition over Labor and the Greens. In 2022, One Nation, United Australia, and Libertarians delivered 65% of preferences to the Coalition, aiding marginal seat wins. A tighter deal could boost this to 70–75%, increasing pressure on Labor.

Prioritise Senate coordination, where proportional representation favours minor parties. A unified "Conservative Alliance" ticket could secure 2–3 seats per state, up from 1–2, creating a blocking bloc against Labor legislation.

2.Shared Messaging Platform:

Develop a "Menzies Pact" outlining core conservative principles: sovereignty, traditional family, economic nationalism, and resistance to woke ideology. This echoes Christensen's calls for a return to Menzies-era values, appealing to the 1.7 million voters who backed right-wing parties in 2016.

Focus on issues uniting the base—opposing net-zero policies, securing borders, protecting religious freedoms—while allowing parties to retain distinct emphases (e.g., One Nation on immigration, Libertarians on taxes).

3.Joint Campaign Infrastructure:

Pool resources for grassroots efforts, such as shared how-to-vote cards and volunteer networks. One Nation's 2025 volunteer shortages highlight the need for collaboration to compete with Labor's union-backed ground game.

Leverage Christensen's media platform (50,000+ newsletter subscribers, podcast reach) to amplify the alliance's message, targeting disillusioned Liberal voters and regional strongholds like Queensland and WA.

Electoral Impact

Australia's compulsory preferential voting system rewards coordinated preferences. In 2025, minor parties collectively polled 10–12%, but fragmentation limited their seat wins (One Nation: 1 Senate, no House seats; Libertarians: 0). A cooperative alliance could push their combined vote to 15–20%, potentially securing 5–10 House seats and 10–12 Senate seats by 2028. This would force Labor into minority government, as seen in 2010 under Gillard, where crossbenchers constrained policy ambition. Key targets include:

Queensland: Outer-metropolitan and regional seats like Flynn and Capricornia, where One Nation polled 10–12% in 2022, could flip with unified preferences.

NSW and Victoria: Marginal Labor seats like Reid and Calwell, with growing conservative migrant votes, are winnable if minor parties consolidate their 8–10% share.

Senate: States like Tasmania and SA, where minor parties polled 5–7%, could deliver extra seats with a joint ticket.

Computer modelling suggests a 55–65% chance of this strategy forcing a hung parliament by 2028, assuming minor parties overcome logistical hurdles and maintain discipline. The Canadian "Unite the Right" movement (1990s–2003), which merged fragmented conservatives to topple Liberal dominance, offers a precedent, though Australia's preferential system requires less formal unity.

The Role of a Black Swan Event

The ultimate goal is to buy time for a black swan event to jolt Australians awake to the nation's cultural, economic, and security vulnerabilities. Labor's unchallenged dominance risks accelerating secular progressivism and CCP influence, as seen in Albanese's ties to United Front groups. A minority government, reliant on conservative crossbenchers, would stall these trends, preserving space for a crisis to shift public sentiment. Potential black swan scenarios include:

Atomic Attack on Pine Gap: A nuclear strike on the U.S.-Australian intelligence facility in Alice Springs, a key target in a China-U.S. conflict, would expose Australia's strategic exposure. The 2025 Chinese warship circumnavigation, noted in prior discussions, hints at such risks. Public panic could drive voters toward conservative calls for sovereignty and defence.

PLA Fuel Blockade: A People's Liberation Army blockade halting fuel imports from Singapore, which supplies 60% of Australia's petrol and diesel, would cripple transport and food supply chains. The resulting chaos—empty pumps, skyrocketing prices—could discredit Labor's CCP-friendly diplomacy and rally support for economic nationalism, as Christensen advocates.

These scenarios, while speculative, align with Australia's growing vulnerabilities: 90% fuel import reliance, urban concentration (80% of population), and exposure to Indo-Pacific tensions. Computer analysis estimates a 10–15% probability of such an event by 2030, rising with U.S.-China escalation. A minority Labor government, weakened by conservative crossbenchers, would struggle to respond, amplifying public demand for strong, faith-based leadership.

From our perspective, unifying minor parties is a spiritual and practical necessity. Labor's agenda—abortion expansion, gender ideology, and CCP appeasement—threatens Australia's Christian heritage and God-given sovereignty. Minor parties, despite their flaws, are closer to this vision: One Nation's defence of traditional values, Australian Christians' pro-life stance, and Libertarians' resistance to state overreach resonate with Biblical principles of family, freedom, and stewardship.

Christensen's role is pivotal. His defection to One Nation, his warnings about Liberal decay, and his platform's reach position him as a potential broker of this alliance. His 2022 Church and State Summit speech, urging believers to resist secular overreach, could inspire churches to mobilise voters, as seen in the 2017 same-sex marriage plebiscite (38% "No" vote). The alliance must prioritise:

Moral Clarity: Oppose Labor's cultural Marxism with policies defending marriage, life, and religious liberty.

Economic Nationalism: Protect coal, agriculture, and local jobs, countering Labor's net-zero and CCP-friendly trade policies.

Security Sovereignty: Demand stronger defences against foreign influence, leveraging ASIO's warnings about CCP infiltration.

Ideological Tensions: One Nation's protectionism clashes with Libertarian free-marketeers, risking fractures. A narrow Menzies Pact focusing on shared values can mitigate this.

Media Backlash: The ABC and urban media may paint the alliance as "far-right," alienating moderates. Christensen's media savvy and grassroots focus can counter this by targeting regional voters.

Labor's Resilience: Labor's 2025 landslide and union backing make minority governments hard to sustain. However, their overreach (e.g., Indigenous Voice fallout) could erode support by 2028.

The Liberal Party's irredeemable drift toward woke globalism, as Christensen warned, necessitates a new strategy: cooperative unity among conservative minor parties. By coordinating preferences, sharing resources, and rallying around a Menzies-inspired platform, One Nation, Libertarians, and others can force minority Labor governments, curbing their secular agenda. This buys time for a black swan event—a Pine Gap attack or PLA fuel blockade—to awaken Australians to the need for faith, family, and sovereignty. Christensen's voice, amplified by churches and regional voters, can drive this alliance, ensuring conservative Australia survives until a crisis sparks its revival. The fight is urgent, and minor parties must rise together to save the nation's soul.

https://nationfirst.substack.com/p/where-to-now-for-aussie-conservatives

"There are two paths being seriously debated — either unite the minor parties and disillusioned voters to create a new political force, or attempt to take back control of the Liberal Party from within. Each option carries real potential, and real risk.

Can We Unite the Right?

Some believe the time is right to unite the right and build something new. The old party brands no longer inspire trust, and more Australians than ever are walking away from the majors. A fresh movement — one rooted in principle, conviction and grassroots support — could offer a real alternative to the inner-city elite politics dominating both major parties. A new force would not be bound by factional baggage or legacy deals. It could speak plainly to the suburbs and the regions. It could be bold. And it could attract not just conservatives, but disillusioned Labor voters and independents looking for meaning in their vote.

But the reality is, Australia's two-party system is still tightly stitched into the fabric of our electoral process. Preference deals, funding flows, media oxygen — they're all geared to favour the status quo. And while there are pockets of strength across the minor right, they're spread thin and led by big personalities with their own empires — Pauline Hanson, Clive Palmer, Bob Katter — none of whom are likely to submit to a single banner.

Change from within?

Others argue that the answer lies within the Liberal Party itself. Despite its current state, it still has national infrastructure, brand recognition, and the legacy of having once stood for conservative values. If enough committed Australians flooded the party with a reform mindset, challenging the factional rot and taking over at the grassroots level, it could be rebuilt from within. The long game could pay off — and has historical precedent. Parties have been shifted before when movements gained control from the bottom up.

But here too, there are hard truths. Many have tried this route before — including myself — and failed. The gatekeepers are deeply embedded. Preselection is controlled. Memberships are managed. The machine resists change precisely because it is designed to protect its own.

It's later than you think…

And yet, we no longer have the luxury of standing idle. What's at stake isn't just the future of a party — it's the future of the country. Our freedoms are being stripped by bureaucrats who think they know better than parents, workers and small business owners. The voice of ordinary Australians is being drowned out by elites in Canberra and boardrooms in Sydney. Our kids are being raised in a nation where free speech is suspect, tradition is ridiculed, and national pride is treated like a sin. If we don't act — and act soon — we risk losing not just elections, but the country we once knew.

This is no longer about strategy. It's about survival.

So the question remains — do we build anew, or fight for what's already there?"