The escalating tensions between China and Taiwan, as highlighted by recent developments in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, paint a grim picture for the island nation's future. Time is running out for Taiwan to secure its sovereignty and prepare for the growing threat posed by China's military ambitions, a reality underscored by the increasing frequency and intensity of Chinese military exercises, the deployment of advanced weaponry, and the geopolitical shifts that leave Taiwan increasingly isolated.Taiwan faces a narrowing window to act decisively, as China's actions signal a readiness to assert control, potentially through force, while Taiwan's ability to deter or withstand such aggression is eroding.
China's military manoeuvres in the region have reached unprecedented levels of aggression, signalling a clear intent to intimidate Taiwan and assert dominance. The South China Morning Post reported on April 5, 2025, that China has been conducting large-scale military exercises, including the "blockade exercise" near Hong Kong and the deployment of advanced weaponry like the Shandong aircraft carrier and YJ-21 hypersonic missiles. These drills are not mere posturing; they simulate real-world scenarios, such as a blockade of Taiwan, which could cut off the island's access to essential supplies like food, fuel, and medical resources. Taiwan relies heavily on maritime trade for its survival, and a sustained blockade could cripple its economy and force capitulation without a single shot fired. The use of live-fire exercises and the proximity of these operations to Taiwan's coastline, sometimes within 10,000 miles, demonstrate China's confidence in its military capabilities and its willingness to escalate. The SCMP notes that these exercises are designed to reduce decision-making time for Taiwan to a mere minute and a half, a window too short for effective response. This deliberate compression of reaction time underscores China's strategy to overwhelm Taiwan's defences before they can mount a meaningful counteraction.
The technological disparity between China and Taiwan further compounds the urgency. China's arsenal now includes hypersonic missiles and advanced drones, which the SCMP describes as "smart" and capable of remote programming to minimise collateral damage while maximising strategic impact. Taiwan's military, while resilient, lacks the scale and technological sophistication to match these advancements. The Shandong carrier's ability to conduct long-range operations, combined with China's growing fleet of naval vessels, means that Taiwan's geographical advantage, its separation by the Taiwan Strait, is diminishing. The drills near Hong Kong, a hub of Chinese military activity, also serve as a psychological weapon, reminding Taiwan of the mainland's proximity and power. As China continues to modernise its forces, the gap widens, leaving Taiwan with less time to bolster its defences or secure advanced weaponry from allies like the United States, which has been slow to deliver on promised arms sales amid its own domestic and geopolitical challenges.
Geopolitically, Taiwan's position is increasingly precarious, as China's influence grows while Taiwan's allies waver. The SCMP highlights Hong Kong's fate as a cautionary tale: once a bastion of relative autonomy, it has been fully integrated into China's control since the 2019 protests, with the former British colony now serving as a staging ground for military exercises. This precedent suggests that China is unafraid to use force to reclaim what it considers its territory, and Taiwan is next on the list. Beijing's "One China" policy, which asserts that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, has gained traction globally, with many nations reluctant to challenge China's narrative for fear of economic or diplomatic repercussions. The United States, Taiwan's most significant backer, has adopted a policy of strategic ambiguity, leaving uncertainty about whether it would intervene in a conflict. Recent U.S. administrations, including Trump's, have prioritised domestic issues and great power competition with China, but tangible support for Taiwan, such as expedited arms deliveries or a formal defence pact, has been inconsistent. Meanwhile, China's Belt and Road Initiative and economic leverage over other nations have isolated Taiwan diplomatically, reducing the number of countries willing to recognise its sovereignty. This isolation shrinks Taiwan's window to build a coalition of support, leaving it more vulnerable as China's pressure mounts.
The psychological toll on Taiwan's population and leadership cannot be understated, further compressing the timeline for action. The SCMP notes that China's exercises are designed to send "powerful signals" to both the Taiwanese government and its people, sowing doubt about their ability to resist. The constant threat of invasion or blockade erodes public morale and creates a sense of inevitability about Chinese dominance. For Taiwan's leaders, the pressure to either negotiate with China or prepare for conflict is immense, yet both paths are fraught with risk. Negotiations could lead to a Hong Kong-style erosion of autonomy, while preparation for conflict requires resources and international support that Taiwan struggles to secure. The longer Taiwan delays decisive action, whether through military buildup, diplomatic outreach, or domestic resilience, the more China's psychological warfare takes hold, making resistance seem futile.
Time is also running out because China's internal dynamics suggest a narrowing window of patience. Xi Jinping, China's leader, has tied his legacy to the reunification of Taiwan, viewing it as a critical step in China's "national rejuvenation." Domestic pressures, such as economic challenges or political dissent, could push Xi to act sooner rather than later, using Taiwan as a rallying point to unify the Chinese populace. The SCMP's reference to the "clock ticking" aligns with this view: China's military exercises are not just practice but a prelude, testing Taiwan's resolve and the international community's reaction. If China perceives that the costs of inaction outweigh the risks of conflict—especially if global powers like the U.S. remain distracted by other crises—it may move to resolve the Taiwan question by force, potentially within the next few years.
In essence, Taiwan faces a confluence of threats that make its position increasingly untenable. China's military buildup, technological edge, and psychological warfare are shrinking the time Taiwan has to prepare or deter aggression. Geopolitical isolation and the uncertainty of U.S. support further erode its options, while China's domestic imperatives suggest a growing impatience to act. The island's leaders must act swiftly to strengthen defences, secure alliances, and rally domestic support, but the window for such measures is closing fast. The SCMP's warning that "time is running out" is not hyperbole but a stark reality: Taiwan's future hangs in the balance, and the clock is indeed ticking.
https://dailysceptic.org/2025/04/05/time-is-running-out-for-taiwan/
"The New York Times reckoned last week that "the clock is ticking" for Taiwan. That was prior to the major military manoeuvres in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait which has preoccupied the South China Morning Post (SCMP) this week.
While it would surely be denied, the SCMP is these days little more than a mouthpiece for the Chinese Communist Party. When I first came to Hong Kong in the early years of the century the SCMP was often openly critical of China. Owned at one time by newspaper oligarch Rupert Murdoch and then later by Malaysian tycoon Robert Kuok, it fell into mainland Chinese hands in 2016, being acquired by the powerful Hangzhou based Alibaba group. To Hong Kong watchers like me, the change in editorial tone regarding China was palpable.
Therefore, based recently in Hong Kong, I have been reading the SCMP coverage of China with interest and trying to gauge the reactions of Hong Kongers to events which are, relatively speaking, close to them. The SCMP coverage of the blockade exercise around Taiwan has been revealing. The reaction of the average Hong Konger has been one of marked indifference. Hong Kong's fate is sealed as China accelerates its takeover of and influence in the former British colony.
China has made no secret of its ambition to attain political control over Taiwan. Its exercises have become more frequent and, each time, more significant, emitting increasingly powerful signals to the Government and the people of Taiwan while simultaneously warning the West and any would-be interveners in a conflict between Taiwan and China just what they are capable of.
The exercises this week were a surprise and the deployment of China's most advanced aircraft carrier Shandong, replete with YJ-21 hypersonic missiles and H-6K strategic bombers, was a significant show of strength. This included the use of live fire missiles.
Unrelated to the blockade exercise, the SCMP also reported on how AI was being used to improve the "combat effectiveness" of Chinese attack drones. These are considered capable of travelling 10,000 miles and the use of AI has reduced the decision time to fire (or not to fire) when potential targets are identified from 20 minutes – the time it would take a military operative to decide the legitimacy of the target – to a little over a minute and a half.
The recent drills were aimed at a strategy which would paralyse Taiwan. The Shandong carrier, advanced missiles and long-range drones mean that a blockade can be conducted at a relatively safe distance from the island of Taiwan. Getting too close by sea risks Chinese vessels and loss of life due to the release by Taiwan of undersea mines some of which are 'smart' in the sense that they can be remotely programmed to damage specific types of Chinese vessels.
This cannot be a comfortable time to live in Taiwan. The Chinese exercises involve flying in formation, with live weapons, towards strategic parts of the Taiwan coast. Presumably Taiwanese citizens in these areas can see and hear the aircraft and must be aware that, one of these times, it may not be an exercise.
Estimates suggest that that Taiwan could resist a blockade of the island for up to a year and, without external assistance, a military onslaught by China for up to 90 days. Of course, while Taiwan could be brought to its knees economically and possibly largely destroyed during military action, the adage of 'boots on the ground' applies if any initiative is going to succeed in bringing Taiwan into the Chinese fold.
While it has been taken before, famously by the Japanese in 1895, only leaving after being defeated in World War II in 1945, Taiwan would be very difficult to take and hold for any modern military power. Some of that is because Taiwan is reasonably militarised and well-equipped, the undersea mines being an example.
But, while reasonably flat in its western region where the main cities are located, the island is very mountainous, making landing troops or aircraft anywhere other than the well-defended western region very hard. Moreover, the interior of Taiwan, as any visitor to the Taroko National Park will attest, is largely impenetrable and snake-infested jungle which would probably be easier to defend than to attack.
I have met the current President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, and only quite recently while he was still Vice-President. He is a mild-mannered man, a distinguished medic from National Taiwan University and a committed Roman Catholic. I note how he has aged considerably since taking office and I wonder if he would now rather be back in his clinics rather than have to take a decision which could determine the fate of his country. It is obvious, as the New York Times says, that for Taiwan the clock is most certainly ticking."