The grand theatre of global climate politics sees the West starring as the earnest protagonist, vowing heroic sacrifices, enacting sweeping policies, and preaching virtue to the world. Enter China: the sly antagonist who nods along, utters vague promises, and then quietly builds coal plants while the curtain falls on Aussies. As Leith van Onselen's recent piece starkly illustrates, this dynamic reached a new low last week. While Australia's Albanese government pledged to slash emissions by 62-70% below 2005 levels by 2035, a nation responsible for just 1% of global CO2 output, Chinese President Xi Jinping tossed out a tepid 7-10% cut from peak levels by the same deadline for the world's top polluter. It is a masterclass in asymmetry, where the West, especially resource-rich outposts like Australia, plays the sucker in a high-stakes game rigged from the start. This enraged piece dissects how the West's insane fervour on climate change has morphed into self-flagellation, with Australia as exhibit A, while China's "developing country" exemption, laughable for the globe's second-largest economy, grants it a free ride that undermines the entire effort. Let's just call it national suicide.
Let's start with cold, hard data, because in climate debates, feelings are fossil fuels for bad arguments, pun intended. China didn't just stumble into emissions dominance; it bulldozed its way there. In 2023, the Middle Kingdom spewed out 12.6 gigatons (Gt) of CO2, accounting for a whopping 31.5% of the global total, more than the United States, European Union, and India combined. That's not a blip; it's a deluge. Between 2000 and 2023, global CO2 emissions rose by about 15 Gt, with China shouldering 67% of that increase, its output tripling from around 3 Gt to over 12 Gt in the process. Per capita, China's at about 9 tons annually, but absolute numbers are what supposedly heat the planet, and Beijing's factories, power plants, and export machine ensure it's the undisputed carbon heavyweight.
Contrast this with Australia, the plucky underdog emitting a mere 0.4 Gt in 2023, roughly 1% of the global pie. Sure, Aussies guzzle energy at a per capita rate double the global average (thanks to vast distances and a love for air-conditioned barbecues), but their total footprint is a rounding error next to China's colossus. Yet here comes the Albanese pledge: a 62-70% reduction by 2035, translating to emissions dropping to 0.1-0.15 Gt annually. Ambitious? Absolutely. Impactful on a planetary scale? About as much as a vegan diet in a slaughterhouse.
Australia's cuts are equivalent to China idling a single province's worth of steel mills for a month. Meanwhile, Xi's "puny" target, as van Onselen calls it, keeps China's emissions plateauing at levels that could power the Industrial Revolution on repeat. The maths screams inequity: Why bleed for 1% when the 31% elephant lounges?
The Kyoto Protocol's ghost haunts us still. Back in 1997, the world cleaved nations into "developed" (binding cuts) and "developing" (flexible goals), a binary that made sense when China was churning out bicycles, not iPhones. Fast-forward to 2025: China's GDP rivals America's at over $18 trillion; it's the factory floor for half the planet, and its citizens boast middle-class lifestyles from Shanghai high-rises to Shenzhen EVs. Labelling it "developing" is like calling Elon Musk's empire a startup, technically true once, but now a joke punchline.
This exemption lets China invoke historical equity: "The West industrialised first; we get catch-up time." True, Europe and the US did use coal for centuries, developing the modern civilisation that China would not have developed, and giving it to the ungrateful world. But equity cuts both ways. China's emissions trajectory isn't catch-up; it's catch-and-release for the climate. By 2035, even with a 10% trim, it'll emit four times the UK's total annually. And don't forget the Belt and Road: Beijing's exporting coal tech to 150 countries, locking in emissions for decades while the West subsidises green transitions at home.
Australia, by contrast, is peak developed, prosperous, urbanised, and yes, perhaps a tad degenerate in its coal-lignite love affair and beach-bum ethos. But degeneracy doesn't justify disparity. If "developing" status hinges on poverty or underdevelopment, China flunks the test: Its poverty rate is lower than many EU nations, and it's hoarding rare earths essential for the West's renewables. The line is a diplomatic fig leaf, and the West keeps pretending it's couture.
Down under, the climate crusade is a national passion project, blending bushfire trauma with export guilt. The 2035 target demands rewiring the grid, ditching gas exports (hello, LNG irony), and taxing farmers into oblivion, all while China snaps up Australian iron ore to build more solar panels, for itself. The economic hit? Trillions in foregone revenue, job losses in mining heartlands, and higher energy bills for households already reeling from post-COVID inflation.
It's not just futile; it's counterproductive. Australia's cuts buy moral high ground but zero atmospheric relief if China offsets them with a single new highway. Worse, it signals weakness: Why negotiate harder with Beijing when you're pre-emptively folding? The free rider problem, game theory's nightmare, thrives here, eroding trust in Paris-style pacts and fuelling populist backlash against net zero zealots; a good thing in itself.
Australia's no outlier; it's the canary in the Western coal mine. The EU's Green Deal and Biden's IRA pour billions into decarbonisation, yet global emissions ticked up 1.1% in 2023, courtesy of Asia's appetite. The West preaches multilateralism, but practices unilateral disarmament, assuming good faith from a rival eyeing dominance in critical minerals and tech. China, ever the strategist, complies just enough, ramping renewables domestically, while flooding markets with cheap EVs that undercut Western subsidies.
This isn't conspiracy; it's calculus. Beijing knows climate leverage is geopolitical gold: Hobble the West's industry with regulations, then dominate the green supply chain.
The West isn't doomed to sucker's status, but it requires ditching the hairshirt for hardball: reject the climate change bull and go for fossil fuels more than ever.
China plays the long game masterfully; the West must learn to counterplay, lest Australia's foolish cuts become the punchline in a communist Chinese world. As van Onselen quips, the fools aren't just played, they're paying. And we Aussies are, big time.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/09/china-plays-the-west-for-fools-on-climate-change/