The fragile ceasefires and memoranda of understanding between the United States and Iran have collapsed. Fighting has resumed with intensity, marked by extensive U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliation with missiles and drones targeting U.S. bases and Gulf states. Michael Snyder and others describe this as the onset of "Iran War 3," warning of catastrophic escalation. Full-scale, sustained conflict no longer feels like a distant possibility; it appears increasingly baked into the logic of deterrence, revenge, and regional power struggles.
Recent days have seen U.S. forces hit around 170 targets, focusing on air defences, missile sites, drones, and assets threatening commercial shipping. Iran has responded by launching attacks on bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan. Oil tankers are largely avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil supply, driving prices higher and signalling broader energy market turmoil. Israel stands ready to re-engage with greater force. The death and funeral of Ayatollah Khamenei have further inflamed Iranian resolve.
Several structural factors make restraint difficult:
The Hormuz Flashpoint: Iran's ability to disrupt shipping gives it leverage, but U.S. determination to keep the strait open invites direct confrontation. Neither side can easily back down without appearing weak.
Iranian Domestic Dynamics: Hardliners, the IRGC, and public mourning for Khamenei create pressure against compromise. Attacks on Iranian soil rally nationalism even as they degrade capabilities.
Proxy and Regional Entanglement: Hezbollah, Houthis, and other militias remain wild cards. Gulf states showing willingness to strike back could widen the war.
Nuclear Shadow: Iran's program adds existential stakes. Any push toward weaponisation would transform the conflict dramatically.
President Trump has tried threats, incentives, and interim deals, but the cycle of strikes persists. This is not traditional state-on-state war with clear front lines but a messy, attritional contest involving missiles, drones, proxies, and economic warfare. History shows such conflicts are easy to start and hard to end cleanly.
A prolonged campaign risks major disruption:
Energy Crisis: Sustained closure or threat to Hormuz would spike global oil prices, hitting inflation, growth, and consumers worldwide. Strategic reserves are finite.
Broader Regional Spread: Involvement of Gulf states, Israel, or escalated proxy attacks could draw in more actors.
Economic and Strategic Blowback: Higher energy costs compound existing pressures. China and Russia may exploit the chaos diplomatically or materially.
Human and Military Costs: Repeated strikes degrade Iranian assets but invite asymmetric retaliation, potential terrorism, and refugee flows.
No one "wins" these wars easily. Iran's regime has survived decades of sanctions and isolation through resilience and fanaticism. The U.S. and allies possess overwhelming conventional superiority but face the classic insurgent/ asymmetric dilemma at scale.
Full-on war may not be inevitable in the classical sense of total invasion, but sustained high-level conflict with periodic escalations looks probable without a decisive shift. Deterrence requires credibility: Iran must conclude that disrupting global energy or attacking U.S. interests carries unbearable costs. At the same time, endless tit-for-tat benefits no one.
For the United States, this tests bandwidth amid other global tensions. For allies like Australia, it underscores vulnerability to distant shocks through energy markets and alliance commitments. Complacency about Middle East stability has costs.
De-escalation would require Iran accepting limits on its nuclear program and Hormuz provocations in exchange for sanctions relief, a tall order given regime ideology. Absent that, preparation for prolonged disruption is prudent: diversify energy, harden infrastructure, and maintain realistic deterrence.
This latest round risks becoming another grinding chapter in a long confrontation, with global ripple effects. Full-scale catastrophe remains avoidable through strength and diplomacy, but the window for easy off-ramps has narrowed.
https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/the-third-iran-war-is-going-to-be