The proliferation of nuclear weapons remains one of the most pressing challenges to global security, but in the volatile geopolitical landscape of South Asia, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal stands out as a uniquely destabilising force. While Islamabad frames its nuclear capabilities as a vital deterrent against India's superior conventional military strength, the combination of its nuclear doctrine, command-and-control vulnerabilities, and the region's chronic instability, creates a dangerous nexus of risks. Far from guaranteeing security, Pakistan's nuclear program heightens the potential for escalation, accidental use, and catastrophic regional conflict. I will examine the multifaceted threats posed by Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, focusing on its destabilising doctrine, the vulnerabilities in its security and command structure, and the precarious dynamics of its rivalry with India.
The Destabilising Doctrine of Full Spectrum Deterrence
Pakistan's nuclear strategy, encapsulated in its "full spectrum deterrence" doctrine, significantly lowers the threshold for nuclear use, creating a precarious strategic environment. Unlike traditional nuclear doctrines that adopt large-scale strategic weapons for deterrence through mutually assured destruction, Pakistan has embraced tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) designed for battlefield use. These lower-yield devices, such as those deliverable by the Nasr missile system, are intended to counter India's perceived "Cold Start" doctrine, a strategy that envisions rapid, limited conventional incursions into Pakistani territory. As articulated by Lieutenant General Khalid Kidwai, former head of Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division, TNWs aim to deter any level of Indian aggression, from minor border skirmishes to full-scale invasions.
This approach, however, introduces profound risks. By integrating TNWs into its military strategy, Pakistan blurs the critical distinction between conventional and nuclear conflict. The forward deployment of these weapons on the battlefield, often in proximity to active combat zones, drastically reduces decision-making timelines during a crisis. A 2023 analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlighted that the Nasr missile's short range and rapid deployment increase the likelihood of miscalculation, as field commanders may face intense pressure to authorise their use under ambiguous circumstances. Moreover, Pakistan's ambiguous "red lines" for nuclear use, such as "economic strangulation," "domestic destabilisation," or "large-scale conventional military incursion," create uncertainty that could lead India to misinterpret Pakistani intentions, potentially triggering a pre-emptive strike. The absence of a clear no-first-use policy further exacerbates this risk, making escalation from a conventional clash to a nuclear exchange alarmingly plausible.
Vulnerabilities in Command and Control
The security and command-and-control mechanisms governing Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, while professionalised, are not immune to significant vulnerabilities. Official Pakistani statements and international assessments, such as a 2025 U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report, observe that Pakistan's nuclear program is managed by a dedicated military apparatus with robust safeguards, including Permissive Action Links (PALs) to prevent unauthorised use. However, the decentralised nature of TNW deployment raises serious concerns. Unlike strategic nuclear weapons stored in secure, centralised facilities, TNWs are designed for rapid deployment, requiring dispersal to field units during a crisis. This increases the risk of weapons or fissile material falling into the wrong hands, particularly in a country with a history of extremist violence and insider threats.
Pakistan's military has faced repeated attacks from terrorist groups, such as the 2011 assault on the Mehran naval base and the 2014 attack on a military school in Peshawar. These incidents underscore the potential for extremist infiltration within the military or nuclear establishment. A 2024 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) noted that while Pakistan has implemented stringent personnel reliability programs, the sheer scale of its nuclear arsenal, estimated at 170 warheads in 2025, amplifies the risk of a security breach. In a high-stress conflict scenario, the chain of command could fracture, potentially allowing rogue actors or field commanders to bypass safeguards. The 2019 Balakot crisis, where a Pakistani nuclear-capable missile was briefly unaccounted for during heightened tensions, illustrates the fragility of command-and-control under pressure. Such incidents highlight the ever-present danger that a breakdown in authority could lead to an unauthorised or accidental nuclear launch.
The India-Pakistan Rivalry and Escalation Risks
The deep-seated animosity between India and Pakistan, coupled with a lack of robust communication channels, significantly amplifies the dangers posed by Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. The 2019 Balakot airstrike, where India conducted a surgical strike on Pakistani territory in response to a terrorist attack, demonstrated how quickly a conventional conflict can escalate. The subsequent dogfight and capture of an Indian pilot brought the two nations to the brink of a broader war, with nuclear arsenals looming in the background. Pakistan's opaque nuclear thresholds and India's own nuclear capabilities, create a volatile environment where misinterpretation or miscalculation could have catastrophic consequences.
Pakistan's modernisation of its nuclear arsenal, including the development of cruise missiles like the Babur and sea-based platforms like the submarine-launched Babur-III, further complicates the strategic balance. These systems, designed to ensure a second-strike capability, also increase the complexity of crisis management. A 2025 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists report noted that both nations' ongoing arms race, including India's development of hypersonic missiles and Pakistan's expansion of its TNW arsenal, risks destabilising the delicate deterrence equilibrium. The lack of bilateral arms control agreements or confidence-building measures, such as a formal hotline during crises, leaves both sides to rely on guesswork about the other's intentions. This uncertainty is particularly dangerous given Pakistan's willingness to signal nuclear readiness during past conflicts, such as the 1999 Kargil War, where veiled nuclear threats were issued to deter Indian escalation.
Regional and Global Implications
The threats posed by Pakistan's nuclear arsenal extend beyond South Asia, with potential global ramifications. The region's proximity to other volatile areas, such as Afghanistan, and the presence of non-state actors with global reach, amplify the risk of nuclear materials being accessed by terrorist organisations. A 2025 RAND Corporation study warned that a nuclear incident in South Asia could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe, with millions of casualties and long-term environmental consequences due to radioactive fallout. Furthermore, the involvement of external powers, such as the United States and China, in the India-Pakistan dynamic adds another layer of complexity. China's strategic support for Pakistan, including assistance in developing its nuclear program, contrasts with the U.S.'s delicate balancing act of maintaining relations with both India and Pakistan, potentially complicating crisis mediation efforts.
Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, while intended to deter aggression and ensure national security, paradoxically heightens the risk of catastrophic conflict in South Asia. The adoption of tactical nuclear weapons under the "full spectrum deterrence" doctrine lowers the threshold for nuclear use, creating a dangerous ambiguity that could transform a limited skirmish into a nuclear exchange. Vulnerabilities in command-and-control, compounded by the region's history of extremist violence, raise the spectre of unauthorised use or theft. The fraught India-Pakistan rivalry, marked by a lack of clear communication and an ongoing arms race, further exacerbates these dangers. Far from stabilising the region, Pakistan's nuclear program positions South Asia as one of the world's most volatile nuclear flashpoints. Addressing these risks requires urgent international attention, including renewed efforts toward arms control, enhanced crisis communication channels, and robust measures to secure nuclear assets. Without such steps, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal will continue to cast a long shadow over global security.
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