In late July 2025, a cyberattack on France's Naval Group, the state-owned defence contractor behind the nuclear-armed Triumphant-class submarines, sent shockwaves through NATO. Hackers, led by the enigmatic "Neferpitou," stole 1 terabyte of sensitive data, including source code for combat management systems (CMS), missile guidance schematics, and classified simulations. A 13GB sample leaked on a dark web forum, with threats of more to come, has raised fears of compromised nuclear capabilities. While the odds of hackers launching missiles are slim, less than 1%, the breach exposes vulnerabilities in the West's nuclear deterrent, hinting at state-sponsored espionage and the spectre of AI-driven cyberwarfare. Here I go into the details of the attack, assesses the likelihood of a nuclear-armed submarine being hacked to "let off some nuclear firecrackers," and explores why this incident is a clarion call for stronger cybersecurity.

The Breach: What Was Stolen?

On July 28, 2025, CyberNews broke the story of a massive data breach at Naval Group, the builder of France's Triumphant-class submarines, which carry M51 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), with up to ten nuclear warheads each. The hacker, Neferpitou, claimed to have extracted 1TB of data, leaking 13GB publicly to pressure Naval Group. The stolen materials include:

Combat Management System Source Code: The full CMS code for Triumphant-class subs and FREMM frigates, critical for coordinating navigation, targeting, and missile launches.

M51 Missile Schematics: Technical details on guidance and targeting systems for missiles with a 10,000 km range, capable of delivering devastating nuclear payloads.

Simulation Systems: STORM3 CMS test benches and virtual machine images simulating classified combat scenarios, potentially revealing operational protocols.

Internal Documents: Classified guides, network configurations, and correspondence, including data on Rafale-M fighter jets used by the French Navy.

The breach's timing, days after France pledged support for Gaza, suggests possible geopolitical motives, with Russia, China, or Iran as suspected culprits, though no evidence confirms attribution. A 2003-dated video in the leak hints at outdated data, but experts warn that even legacy systems could expose vulnerabilities in current designs. France's Defense Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, addressed Parliament, while U.S. Cyber Command assists, signalling NATO-wide alarm. The breach may stem from a Microsoft SharePoint flaw (CVE-2025-53770), though Naval Group's investigation is ongoing.

Can Hackers Launch Nuclear Missiles?

The prospect of hackers using this data to seize control of a nuclear-armed submarine and launch its missiles, the "firecrackers" in question, is a chilling but unlikely scenario. Several layers of safeguards make this nearly impossible, though the breach still poses serious risks.

Why It's Highly Unlikely

1.Air-Gapped Systems: Triumphant-class submarines operate on isolated networks, disconnected from the internet while at sea. Launching an M51 SLBM requires multiple human authorisations, including from the submarine commander and French naval command, using physical keys and encrypted codes not stored in the CMS.

2.Procedural Checks: Nuclear launch protocols involve strict chain-of-command verification via secure, low-frequency radio or satellite links. Even if hackers accessed the CMS, bypassing human oversight would require real-time physical access, a near-impossible feat for a submerged vessel.

3.Outdated Data: The 2003-dated leak suggests some systems may be obsolete. Modern submarines likely use updated CMS versions, reducing the stolen code's relevance. NATO's rapid response, including U.S. assistance, likely includes patching vulnerabilities.

4.Technical Barriers: Hacking a submerged submarine demands penetrating encrypted military networks, a task beyond most non-state actors. Even state actors, like China in the 2018 U.S. Navy hack, have struggled to translate data breaches into operational control.

Probability: Experts estimate a less than 1% chance of hackers gaining launch control, given the multi-layered defences. The risk is higher during maintenance or port operations, but still below 5–10% for significant disruptions like jamming or navigation errors.

Why It's Not Impossible

Despite safeguards, the breach raises concerns:

Source Code Vulnerabilities: The CMS source code could reveal backdoors or flaws, enabling targeted cyberattacks. A state actor with resources, like China's MSS, which stole 614GB of U.S. submarine data in 2018, could exploit these over time.

AI Exploitation: Stolen simulation data could train adversarial AI to disrupt missile guidance or mimic CMS commands, especially during non-isolated scenarios (e.g., dockside updates). This could enable trajectory manipulation or sabotage.

False Flag Risk: The data could theoretically allow a sophisticated actor to stage a limited launch, misattributed to hackers, to spark conflict. The absence of a ransom demand suggests strategic, possibly state-driven motives.

Allied Exposure: The breach affects allies like India and Brazil, who use Naval Group systems. Unverified claims of U.S. Navy links amplify the risk of broader NATO vulnerabilities.

Broader Implications: A Cyber Wake-Up Call

This breach, dubbed France's largest military data theft, echoes other systemic failures in 2025, Rotherham's police scandals, Epstein's unprosecuted network, or the UK's pension delusion. It exposes the fragility of critical infrastructure in an AI-driven cyberwarfare era. The stolen data could:

Enhance Adversarial AI: Algorithms could train AI to evade missile defences or simulate French naval operations, escalating the global arms race.

Weaken NATO Deterrence: Compromised schematics could undermine confidence in France's nuclear triad, a key NATO asset.

Enable Espionage: Internal documents reveal operational protocols, aiding long-term intelligence gathering by adversaries.

Sensationalist claims, like those from Natural News about "600+ thermonuclear warheads" targeting the U.S., lack evidence and risk inflating geopolitical fears. The real threat is subtler: eroded trust in defence systems and the potential for future cyberattacks exploiting these leaks.

To mitigate this crisis, France and NATO must:

1.Patch Vulnerabilities: Urgently update CMS software and audit systems for backdoors, leveraging U.S. Cyber Command's expertise.

2.Enhance Cybersecurity: Mandate zero-trust architectures and regular penetration testing for defence contractors like Naval Group.

3.International Cooperation: Share threat intelligence with allies like India and Brazil to prevent cascading breaches.

4.Public Transparency: Release redacted findings to counter speculation, balancing security with public trust.

5.Invest in AI Defence: Develop countermeasures against AI-driven exploits, prioritising secure simulation environments.

The Naval Group hack is a stark reminder that even nuclear-armed submarines, symbols of ultimate deterrence, are vulnerable in the cyber age. While the odds of hackers launching missiles are minuscule, less than 1%, the stolen source code, missile schematics, and simulations could fuel espionage, AI warfare, or false flag operations. Like Rotherham's betrayals or Epstein's cover-ups, this breach reveals a world where critical systems are only as strong as their weakest link. NATO must act swiftly to secure its defences, or risk a future where the "firecrackers" are more than a hacker's fantasy, they're a global catastrophe.