The Strait of Hormuz crisis of 2026 has brutally exposed a fundamental truth that Green ideologues and net-zero enthusiasts have spent years trying to deny: the modern world still runs overwhelmingly on fossil fuels, and we haven't seen anything yet when it comes to the vulnerabilities and consequences of pretending otherwise.
As detailed in Tilak Doshi's March 20, 2026, piece in The Daily Sceptic, the narrow 21-mile-wide chokepoint between Iran and Oman remains the planet's most vital energy artery. Roughly 20% of global oil consumption and a comparable share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade flows through it daily — around 20 million barrels of oil equivalent. When geopolitical tensions erupt, as they did dramatically this year following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran starting February 28 (under operations like Epic Fury and Roaring Lion), the strait becomes a flashpoint. Iran retaliated by effectively closing the passage — declaring it off-limits, launching missile and drone attacks on vessels, mining threats, and targeting shipping — causing tanker traffic to plummet from dozens per day to a trickle or near-zero in late March. Shipping giants rerouted around Africa, war risk insurance skyrocketed, and hundreds of vessels sat stranded.
The immediate fallout? Oil prices surged dramatically; Brent crude jumping from pre-crisis levels around $70–$80/barrel to well over $100 at peaks, with some analysts warning of $150–$200 in prolonged scenarios. Heating oil doubled in places like Northern Ireland, global energy markets faced the largest supply disruption in history (per the IEA), and panic buying, rationing fears, and retailer hikes rippled worldwide. Asia bore the brunt — 85% of Hormuz oil heads east, half to China — while Europe (4% oil, 10–14% LNG reliant) and others felt sharp inflation in fuel and goods. Even the U.S., largely self-sufficient now, saw indirect pain through global benchmarks and supply chain chaos.
This isn't some abstract "energy transition" debate. It's raw reality: fossil fuels provide about 85% of global primary energy, powering industry, transport, heating, electricity backups, and as raw materials for plastics, chemicals, fertilizers, and more. Renewables — wind at 23% capacity on a good day, solar even less reliable — can't step in when tankers stop flowing. No amount of windmills, solar panels, or battery dreams can replace the dense, dispatchable, transportable energy hydrocarbons deliver at scale. The crisis mocks the fantasy that we've "moved beyond" oil: intermittent renewables need fossil backups for when the wind dies or the sun sets, and without secure fossil imports, grids falter, industries grind to a halt, and citizens face energy poverty.
Doshi and sceptics like those in the comments hammer home the point: net-zero policies, driven by UN/WEF dogma, have prioritised CO2 reductions over energy security and affordability. Countries like the UK — relying on North Sea gas for 40% but still exposed via global markets — impoverish citizens with virtue-signalling while ignoring domestic hydrocarbon potential. France, despite heavy nuclear, depends on imported heating oil, LPG, and LNG. The "green" push ignores that hydrocarbons are essential raw materials, not just fuel, rendering renewables "useless ornaments" without them.
And we haven't seen anything yet. The 2026 crisis — sparked by failed nuclear talks, prior 2025 skirmishes, and escalation to leadership strikes (including Iran's supreme leader), showed how quickly things can spiral. Iran didn't need a full naval blockade; threats, a few attacks, and insurance panic sufficed to choke flows. U.S. forces degraded Iranian coastal missile sites, Trump threatened power plant strikes if the strait stayed shut, and allies wavered (Europe declaring "not our war" in some cases). Yet even partial, short-term disruptions caused wild volatility — prices swinging wildly, supply chains buckling.
Imagine a longer closure: months of blockade, broader regional war, or proxy escalations involving Houthis in the Red Sea (already disrupted). Analysts warned of triple-digit oil for prolonged scenarios, dwarfing 1970s embargoes. Global inflation spikes, growth stalls, food production risks rise (energy-intensive fertilizers and transport), and developing nations suffer most. The crisis proves civilisation runs on fossil fuels — no viable substitute exists at scale today or soon. Pretending otherwise through rushed, unreliable transitions only heightens fragility.
The Strait of Hormuz isn't just a geographic bottleneck; it's a stark reminder of energy realism. Until abundant, affordable, reliable alternatives emerge (if ever), hydrocarbons remain king. Policymakers ignoring this — pushing aggressive decarbonisation while neglecting security and domestic production — invite worse crises ahead. As Doshi implies, the world still runs on fossil fuels, full stop. And if we keep sleepwalking into dependency on volatile chokepoints without honest reckoning, the next shock will make 2026 look mild.