Simmering in the endless climate wars, one sacred cow has been untouchable: The rise in atmospheric CO2 from ~315 ppm in 1959 to 425 ppm today is overwhelmingly driven by human fossil fuel emissions, and that's the root of modern warming. Textbooks, IPCC reports, and Al Gore documentaries have drilled this into us for decades. But what if the causality arrow points the other way? What if warming oceans, fizzing like a shaken soda, are belching out the bulk of that CO2, with our emissions as mere side notes?
A fresh December 2025 study by Veyres, Maurin, and Poyet in Science of Climate Change drops this bombshell: Temperature-driven oceanic outgassing explains 83% of the CO2 surge since Mauna Loa's first measurements. Human fingerprints? A measly 23 ppm, too trivial to budge the climate needle. It's the kind of claim that could rewrite net-zero playbooks, if given a fair hearing, which certainly the climate cult will not do.
The Study's Core Punch: Oceans as the Real Culprits
Veyres et al. aren't lone wolves; they build on prior work like Koutsoyiannis et al. (2022), who used respiration chemistry to show plant/soil emissions outpacing fossils 3.4:1 since the 1950s. Here, the trio crunches time-series data on sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and CO2 fluxes, modelling the "time-integrated effect" of past warming on ocean degassing. Key takeaways:
Scale of Outgassing: Natural oceanic CO2 emissions jumped from 133 Gt-C/yr in 1959 to 175 Gt-C/yr in 2025 — a net +42 Gt-C/yr. Fossils? A puny +7.9 Gt-C/yr (from 2.4 to 10.3 Gt-C/yr). That 84% natural share dwarfs human input.
No Fossil Sync: Detrended 12-month CO2 increments show zilch correlation with emissions (R²=0.01). Instead, SST anomalies (up 0.85°C since 1959) track the +107 ppm rise, accounting for +89 ppm via warmer waters releasing dissolved CO2 (Henry's Law in action).
Human Slice? Negligible: Of today's 425 ppm, just 23 ppm (5%) lingers from fossils, equivalent to 49 Gt-C. The rest? Natural cycles. Even if the EU's €800B/year decarbonisation crusade zeroed emissions tomorrow, atmospheric CO2 would dip a laughable 0.5 ppm by 2035.
In 1960, ocean degassing outflux was 32x fossil emissions; by 2010, still 11x. The authors quip: Fossil growth adds ~0.28 ppm/yr lately — eight times less than the +2.4 ppm/yr from nature. It's a tidy inversion: Warming (from whatever cause) drives CO2 release, not vice versa. This flips the alarmist narrative from "CO2 as driver" to "CO2 as passenger."
The Numbers in Black and White
To visualise the study's ratios, here's a snapshot of annual CO2 inflows (Gt-C/yr) since 1959:
| Source | 1959 Level | 2025 Level | Net Change | % of Total Rise |
| Oceanic Outgassing | 133.2 | 175.2 | +42 | 84% |
| Fossil Fuels | 2.4 | 10.3 | +7.9 | 16% |
| Total Inflow | ~135.6 | ~185.5 | +49.9 | 100% |
Derived from Veyres et al. (2025). Note: Total atmospheric rise ~+110 ppm; sinks absorb ~half annually, but net accumulation favours natural drivers per model.
This isn't cherry-picked; it's from Mauna Loa/NOAA data cross-checked with SST records. The punchline: If CO2 is the villain, why does it trail temperature so obediently? (Causality tests confirm T → CO2, not reverse.)
Why This Rattles Orthodoxy — and Why It's Gaining Traction
Climate dogma rests on the Keeling Curve: CO2 up, temps up, humans to blame. But sceptics have long eyed natural amplifiers — oceans hold 50x more CO2 than the air, and warmer water holds less (solubility drops ~4% per °C). Veyres et al. quantify it rigorously, using partial pressure models and Gaussian smoothing to tease out lags. On X, it's exploding: Steve Milloy's share racked 567 likes and 223 reposts by Dec 6, framing it as "upends assumptions." Kenneth Richard's post? 381 likes, 159 reposts, sparking threads like Greg Fairchild's chemistry 101: "Oceans absorb/release more CO2 than mankind combined." Semantic echoes amplify: Posts decry "climate hype myths," tying oceans to weather via trade winds, not "CO2 knobs."
This dovetails with the "policy madness" thread theme at the blog today — from Australia's immigration surge straining resources, to green energy's hidden subsidies. Here, trillions in net-zero spending chase a 5% CO2 sliver, ignoring nature's 95% sway. As one X user quips: "Elite scripts distort cycles for supranational agendas." This vindicates Lomborg-style critiques: Focus on adaptation, not futile emission hunts of the climate change cult and zero net madness.