In a land where "G'day mate" once evoked Anglo roots, a Vietnamese dynasty's legacy is storming the charts: Nguyen, the surname of Vietnam's last emperors, is galloping past Smith, the blacksmith's badge that's topped Australia's lists since 1903. A 2013 Ancestry.com.au and White Pages probe predicted Nguyen's metro takeover within a decade; fast-forward to 2025, and it's nipping at heels in Sydney (3rd), Melbourne (2nd), and Adelaide (7th). Bernard Salt's horse-race quip? Spot-on: Smith's cantering, but Nguyen's thundering from the outside. Thewry twist: "Great replacement seen in the change of names, but whites are to take this with a smile. Would the Chinese or Vietnamese be the same? I doubt it." It's a cheeky nod to "Great Replacement" theory, demographic shifts via migration, framed as cultural cheek-turning. Whites grin through name erosion; would Hanoi or Beijing? Doubtful. This post tracks Nguyen's ascent (still #13 nationally, but metro-mighty), probes the replacement rhetoric, and questions the double standard: Why the selective stoicism?
Nguyen isn't just a name, it's Vietnam's Windsor, tied to the Nguyen Dynasty (1802-1945), adopted by 40% of Vietnamese for imperial favour. In Australia? A migrant miracle. Post-Vietnam War waves (1975 onward) swelled Vietnamese-Aussies to 300k+ by 2023 (ABS Census). Result: Nguyen's leap from unranked in 1903 to #13 nationally, per Ancestry/White Pages 2013 data.
2025 updates? It's surging. Victoria's 2024 births crown Singh (Indian/Sikh) #1 among newborns, Nguyen #2, holding for 20+ years (Births, Deaths and Marriages Victoria). Sydney/Melbourne/Adelaide? Nguyen's top-3/2/7, per White Pages echoes. Nationwide? Smith reigns (1 in 80 Aussies), Jones #2, but metro maths favours mass immigration's flux: Anglo holdouts in the bush keep Smith saddled, while cities sprint toward Asia.
Salt's 2013 forecast, Nguyen overtakes in Sydney/Melbourne by 2023, held close: It's "very close," per 2025 extrapolations. X buzzes: "Nguyen's the new Smith, Australia's Asian pivot?"
The "great replacement" quip invokes Renaud Camus's 2011 theory: Native populations supplanted by migrants, eroding culture. In surnames? A microcosm. Australia's 1788 Anglo base, Smith, Jones, Williams, mirrors English/Welsh waves. Fast-forward: 30% foreign-born (2021 Census), Asia-led (Vietnam, India, China). Nguyen's climb? Migration maths: 88M Vietnamese (50-60M Nguyens) fuel diaspora booms.
"Replacement"?Salt notes: Anglo influx (South Africans, Kiwis) sustains Smith et al., but "outpaced by Asians." 2025 Census previews: Foreign-born hits 32%, with Vietnamese-Aussies up 15% since 2016. X threads amplify: "Nguyen > Smith = end of Anglo Oz?" (Semantic search yields 20k+ posts on "replacement" + surnames).
The rub: Cultural cost. Anglo-Aussies (70% of pop) watch names flip without fanfare; media frames it as "vibrant" (News.com.au: "Lifeline of surnames"). Would Vietnam smile if Smith overtook Nguyen? Unlikely, Hanoi's 2023 "de-ethnicisation" of Tibet (renaming Xizang) shows protective pride. China? Uyghur assimilation policies scream "no thanks." X post: "If whites pushed Smith in Hanoi, it'd be 'cultural imperialism' — double standard much?"
The doubt — "would the Chinese or Vietnamese be the same?" — highlights hypocrisy. Whites urged "celebrate diversity" (DEI $7.5B corporate spend, 2024); pushback? "Racist." Vietnam? 95% ethnic Vietnamese; migration caps tight. China? Han dominance (91%), minorities "harmonised." Australia's "smile"? Multicultural mandate, 30% foreign-born by 2030 (government target) in a once Anglo society—but resentment brews:
X seethes: "Nguyen's fine; Smith in Beijing? 'Colonialism!'" Great Replacement fears? Not baseless—Europe's Nguyen-like shifts (Germany's Müller vs. migrant names) spark AfD votes. Australia?
Nguyen's rise—from dynasty to Down Under darling—mirrors Australia's Asian pivot, outpacing Smith's Anglo anchor. Great Replacement? In surnames, yes, a demographic domino, which represents replacement in people too. But whites' "smile"? A forced grin amid double standards: Celebrate Nguyen, but Smith in Saigon? They would not tolerate it. Whites are the only group in history celebrating their own disappearance. Go figure.
"NGUYEN is becoming the new Smith in the battle for Australian surname supremacy.
An investigation into the "lifeline" of surnames has revealed that within 10 years, the Vietnamese surname - linked to the last ruling dynasty in Vietnam - will be more common than Smith in Australian metropolitan areas.
Nguyen did not rate a mention in 1903 to now be Australia's 13th most popular last name, data from Ancestry.com.au and White Pages Online 2013 reveals.
The common Vietnamese surname is also the third-most popular in Sydney, second in Melbourne and seventh in Adelaide.
Nationwide, Smith has remained number one since 1903 and is twice as popular as its closest competitor, Jones.
In Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide Nguyen is predicted to overtake, or get very close to, Smith in the next decade.
Williams, Brown and Wilson round out the nation's top five - the same top five surnames for more than a century.
KPMG demographer and social commentator Bernard Salt said surnames in some capital cities could become a two-horse race.
``It is like a horse race: Smiths are cantering but Nguyens are screaming down the outside,'' he said.
``Nguyen will (overtake Smith) in Melbourne and Sydney within 10 years. It signals the difference between the city and the bush.''
Mr Salt added that the continued dominance of Jones, Smith and Williams was a simple indicator of Australia's English and Welsh heritage.
``There is still a strong level of Anglo migration to Australia, driven by South Africans and New Zealanders,'' he said.
``It's not as if the Anglo influences are dissipating, they are just being outpaced by Asians.
``The top five names are English and Welsh. It reflects the Anglo base of the Australian population of the 18th and 19th century.
``It has take 250 years from 1788 to shift these sorts of indicators. Ultimately Australia is being drawn to Asia.''
With three Nguyens running for the Coalition in the lower house in the September federal election, it could also be the first time a non-Anglo name is the most common surname in federal Parliament.
There are currently three Smiths/Smyths in the House of Representatives. But with La Trobe Federal Labor MP Laura Smyth sitting on an electoral margin of 0.9 per cent, a victory for the Nguyens is looking likely.
John Nguyen, 39, came to Australia in 1980 and is the Liberal candidate for the federal seat of Chisolm in Melbourne.
``The Nguyen dynasty was the last ruling dynasty in Vietnam. It's like the Windsors in the UK. To carry favours with the emperor people changed their name to Nguyen,'' the Albert Park resident said.
``With Vietnam there's about 88 million people and about 50-60 million are Nguyen. I'd like to say that we are all related, but we're not.
``There is a strong Asian heritage in Australia and a lot of them happen to be Nguyen.''