The article "Melbourne will be unliveable in 30 years" was published on February 24, 2025, at the great Macrobusiness.com.au, authored by Leith van Onselen, the Chief Economist at MB Fund and MB Super and co-founder of Macrobusiness.com.au. It examines the implications of Melbourne's rapid population growth and the associated pressures on infrastructure, housing, and liveability.
The article highlights Melbourne's dramatic population increase, noting that it has grown by about 2 million people since 2000, reaching approximately 5.5 million today. Projections from the Centre for Population estimate an additional 3.5 million by 2056, bringing the total to 9 million—an increase of 5.5 million in just 56 years.
Van Onselen argues this growth, driven primarily by net overseas migration (NOM), is unsustainable, straining the city's capacity to provide adequate housing, transport, and services.
Van Onselen asserts that Melbourne's infrastructure—roads, public transport, hospitals, and schools—has not kept pace with population growth. Traffic congestion, overcrowded trains, and long hospital wait times are cited as evidence of deteriorating living standards, with the city's outer suburbs particularly neglected. He predicts that without drastic policy shifts, Melbourne will become "unliveable" by 2056, a sentiment echoed in his critique of urban planning failures.
Rapid population growth has exacerbated Melbourne's housing shortage. The article references the Albanese government's target of building 1.2 million homes nationwide over five years (240,000 annually), but notes that only 177,700 were completed in the year ending Q3 2024—far below the required rate.
High immigration levels, with NOM peaking at 400,000 in 2022-23, are blamed for driving demand that outstrips supply, pushing up rents and home prices.
Van Onselen criticises federal and state governments for prioritizing population growth over sustainable development. He accuses Victoria's Labor government of fiscal mismanagement, pointing to the state's high debt levels and projects like the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL), which he deems wasteful amid more pressing needs in Melbourne's west and north.
The article advocates reducing NOM to historical averages (around 100,000 annually) to align population growth with infrastructure and housing capacity, arguing that current levels guarantee ongoing crises
The Centre for Population's December 2024 forecasts, cited across multiple sources, project Australia's population growing by 4.1 million over the next decade, with Melbourne adding 1 million by 2035. This aligns with the article's 2056 estimate of 9 million, reinforcing the scale of the challenge (Macrobusiness, "The Great Australian Housing Swindle," January 26, 2025).
A post on X from @ozcrimenews on February 25, 2025, echoes this, projecting Melbourne's 2056 population at 9 million and criticising Labor's environmental and planning policies, reflecting public sentiment about unchecked growth.
Microbusiness's "Australians face bleak housing future" (February 17, 2025) notes that building high-rise apartments—often touted as a solution—is costlier than detached homes, contradicting affordability assumptions. CBRE predicts only 50,000 units annually between 2025 and 2029, half the 2017 peak, due to rising construction costs—a trend that worsens Melbourne's supply gap.
The ABC reported in 2024 on families forced into cramped apartments due to housing shortages, with vacancy rates at historic lows (around 1 percent per SQM Research, February 13, 2025, "Australia's rental crisis worsens again"), corroborating van Onselen's liveability concerns.
"Victorian taxpayers trapped in no-win situation" (Macrobusiness, February 10, 2025) details Victoria's soaring debt and the contentious SRL project, estimated at $34.5 billion, which diverts funds from transport upgrades in Melbourne's west. This supports the article's claim of misaligned priorities.
The Herald Sun reported in 2025 that Labor MPs in Melbourne's outer suburbs are lobbying to redirect SRL funds, highlighting grassroots recognition of infrastructure deficits.
Macrobusiness's "The fundamental problem with Australia's housing market" (January 23, 2025) ties Melbourne's woes to national trends, noting that population growth of 410,000 annually—equivalent to adding a Canberra each year—overwhelms supply chains. This fuels a per capita recession, with household consumption declining for seven quarters (Macrobusiness, "When will Australia's recession end?" January 30, 2025).
Saul Eslake, quoted in "Welcome to Victoria: the bankruptcy state" (Macrobusiness, February 14, 2025), laments Victoria's economic decline, with Melbourne's CBD vacancy rates nearing 20 percent—a sign of urban decay linked to overpopulation pressures.
Polling data from sources like TAPRI (2021) and JWS Research (February 18, 2025, "Voters punish Labor for cost of living, unaffordable housing") shows widespread public frustration with housing affordability and cost-of-living pressures, with 30 percent of voters prioritising housing—sentiments van Onselen leverages to argue for policy reform.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton's 2025 pledge to cut permanent migration to 140,000 annually (Macrobusiness coverage) contrasts with Labor's approach, indicating a political divide over immigration's role in Melbourne's future. The big question is whether Dutton will have the political guts to keep this election promise? Given his performances so far, I very much doubt it.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/02/melbourne-will-be-unliveable-in-30-years/