On September 3, 2025, Italian police arrested two Turkish nationals in Viterbo, a historic city 70 km north of Rome, just hours before the UNESCO-recognized Macchina di Santa Rosa festival, a centuries-old Catholic procession honouring the city's patron saint. The men, aged 21 and 31, were detained in a bed and breakfast near the Santa Rosa monastery, armed with a submachine gun, two pistols, and dozens of rounds of ammunition. A third suspect escaped and remains at large. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni praised the "decisive operation" that ensured the safety of 40,000 attendees, including Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani and Culture Minister Alessandro Giuli, who were swiftly escorted to safety. Italian media reported suspicions of a planned attack, with the Israeli ambassador advised to skip the event for security reasons. While authorities are investigating terrorism as a possible motive, arms trafficking and links to Turkish organised crime are also under scrutiny. I delve into the incident, exploring likely motives and the broader context of security threats in Italy, drawing on available reports to piece together a complex picture.
The arrests occurred after the B&B owner reported suspicious behaviour, three Turkish guests arrived without luggage, raising red flags. Counter-terrorism police, supported by Italy's elite NOC unit, bomb-sniffing dogs, and rooftop snipers, raided the B&B along the festival's procession route. They found loaded weapons, a 9mm semi-automatic pistol and an Eastern European-made assault machine gun, in plain view, suggesting readiness for immediate action. The suspects, who refused to answer investigators' questions, are detained in Viterbo's prison on arms trafficking charges, while authorities comb their phones and contacts for clues. The festival proceeded with heightened security, including keeping city lights on, breaking tradition to enhance visibility.
The Macchina di Santa Rosa festival, held annually on September 3, is a cultural and religious cornerstone, drawing tens of thousands to watch 100 porters carry a 30-metre, 5-ton illuminated structure through Viterbo's medieval streets. The presence of high-profile figures like Tajani and Giuli, alongside the Israeli ambassador's planned attendance, made it a potential high-value target. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini warned it "could have been a massacre," underscoring the operation's gravity.
Italian authorities are exploring two primary hypotheses: a terrorist plot or an organised crime operation, possibly linked to arms trafficking. A third theory suggests an attempt to free Barış Boyun, a Turkish mafia boss arrested in Viterbo in May 2024. Each motive carries distinct implications, shaped by Italy's security landscape and regional dynamics.
1. Terrorist Plot
The terrorism angle is compelling due to the timing, location, and weaponry. The festival's large crowd, religious significance, and high-profile attendees, especially the Israeli ambassador, make it a symbolic target for extremist groups. The weapons' placement in a B&B overlooking the procession's final stop suggests a potential mass-casualty attack. Breaking with tradition to keep city lights on and deploying snipers, reflect authorities' acute concern about terrorism.
However, Avvenire, the Italian bishops' conference newspaper, reported police sources stating the suspects had no clear links to known terrorist networks like ISIS. This weakens the terrorism hypothesis, but doesn't rule it out, as lone-wolf or small-cell attacks often lack direct ties to established groups. The Israeli ambassador's withdrawal, reported by Corriere della Sera, hints at specific intelligence, possibly related to anti-Israel sentiment amid ongoing Middle East tensions. In 2025, Israel's conflicts, particularly with Gaza, continue to fuel global protests and occasional extremist plots, as seen in recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. A targeted strike against a festival attended by an Israeli diplomat could align with such motives, though no concrete evidence confirms this.
The suspects' Turkish nationality adds complexity. Turkey has faced internal security challenges from Kurdish separatists and jihadist groups, but there's no public evidence linking these men to such factions. Their refusal to cooperate and the escape of a third suspect suggest a coordinated effort, possibly driven by ideological motives not yet disclosed. The terrorism hypothesis remains open, with investigators awaiting forensic analysis of the suspects' devices.
2. Organised Crime and Arms Trafficking
The leading investigative track, per Il Sole 24 Ore and ANSA, is arms trafficking, potentially linked to Turkish organised crime. The suspects' arsenal, military-grade weapons and ammunition, points to a possible role in an illicit arms network. Viterbo's prior brush with Turkish crime strengthens this theory: in May 2024, Italian police and Europol arrested Barış Boyun, a notorious Turkish mob boss, in nearby Bagnaia. Boyun's network allegedly used B&Bs as arms depots and drug trafficking hubs, suggesting Viterbo as a logistical base for Turkish syndicates in Italy.
Recent Europol-Turkish operations, including an April 2024 raid netting 234 arrests and 21 tons of drugs across Europe, highlight the scale of Turkish criminal networks. The weapons found in Viterbo could have been part of a trafficking operation, with the festival's timing coincidental or a cover for moving arms. The third suspect's escape and ongoing checks with Turkish authorities suggest a broader network, possibly aiming to supply weapons to European or regional markets.
A related theory posits the suspects planned to free Boyun, detained in Viterbo. This is speculative but plausible, given the proximity to his arrest site and the firepower involved. However, the festival setting seems an unlikely stage for such an operation, as it would draw heavy police presence, complicating any jailbreak attempt.
3. Hybrid or Alternative Motives
The lines between terrorism and organised crime often blur. Turkish criminal networks have been known to intersect with extremist groups, particularly in Europe, where arms and drug trafficking can fund ideological causes. The suspects' silence and the open window overlooking the procession route suggest premeditation, but whether for profit or ideology is unclear. The Israeli ambassador's absence might indicate a geopolitical motive, possibly tied to Turkey's complex stance on Middle East conflicts, but this lacks substantiation without further evidence.
Another possibility is a personal or localised grievance, though less likely given the suspects' foreign status and the event's scale. The lack of luggage and the B&B owner's alertness suggest a short-term, high-stakes operation, ruling out casual criminality. The ongoing investigation, including phone data analysis and coordination with Turkish authorities, will likely clarify whether this was a standalone act or part of a larger network.
Italy's robust counter-terrorism framework, honed since the 1970s against domestic and jihadist threats, explains the operation's success. Claudio Bertolotti of Start InSight notes Italy's "preventive capacity," with no successful terror attacks causing fatalities since 2015, unlike in Paris or Brussels. The NOC's deployment and rapid response reflect this expertise. However, the incident underscores vulnerabilities at large public events, especially those with religious or international significance.
The Turkish connection raises questions about Europe's exposure to transnational crime. Turkey's cooperation with Europol has intensified, targeting groups like Boyun's, but porous borders and globalised crime networks challenge even Italy's vigilant system. The festival's UNESCO status and attendance by foreign dignitaries amplify its appeal as a target, whether for terrorism or high-profile crime.
The arms trafficking hypothesis is currently the most supported, given the weapons' nature and Viterbo's history with Turkish crime. However, the terrorism angle can't be dismissed, as the festival's profile and the Israeli ambassador's involvement suggest a possible ideological target. A hybrid motive, crime funding a political agenda, is also plausible, though speculative. The suspects' silence and the third's escape complicate the investigation, but digital forensics and international cooperation may soon provide answers.
This incident highlights the need for continued vigilance at cultural events and stronger cross-border efforts to combat arms trafficking and organised crime.
The foiled attack in Viterbo was a close call, averted by alert citizens and elite policing. While arms trafficking appears the primary motive, tied to Turkish criminal networks, the terrorism hypothesis lingers due to the festival's symbolic weight and the Israeli ambassador's near-presence. The incident exposes the delicate balance Italy maintains between celebrating its cultural heritage and securing it against global threats. As investigations continue, the truth may lie in a mix of profit-driven crime and opportunistic ideology, a reminder that in 2025, no nation is immune to the shadows of transnational networks. Australia, grappling with its own migration debates, should note Italy's proactive security model as a lesson in protecting public spaces.