Dr. Nicholas Tate's essay (link below) draws on Ernest Renan's 1882 lecture to frame a sobering prognosis for English national identity. Renan defined a nation not by race, language, religion, economy, or geography, but as a "spiritual family" rooted in shared historical memories and a daily renewed commitment to communal life. Tate applies this to contemporary Britain, arguing that mass immigration, multiculturalism, progressive ideologies, and educational narratives are eroding these foundations, potentially rendering "Englishness" obsolete in a fragmented future. Based on demographic trends and cultural shifts, his view — that England risks becoming a "swamp of diversity" where indigenous identity dissolves, seems to be on track on the present great replacement scenario.

The Erosion of Shared Memories

Renan's first pillar — a "rich legacy of memories" from ancestors' efforts, sufferings, and glories — is under strain. Tate highlights how schools and universities portray the past negatively, fostering disconnection. Surveys support this: among 18- to 27-year-olds, only 41% express pride in being British, a sharp drop from 80% in similar polls two decades ago. This generational apathy extends to national defence; just 11% of this age group say they'd fight for their country if invaded. For younger teens (15-18), perceptions of racism are prevalent, with polls indicating that nearly half of young Britons view the UK as racist, often influenced by school curricula emphasising colonial guilt over achievements. If future generations inherit a narrative of shame rather than reverence, the collective "soul" Renan described weakens, making English identity feel like a relic rather than a living bond.

Demographic changes accelerate this. School census data reveal white British pupils as a minority in one in four schools, with 72 institutions having none at all and 454 where they comprise less than 2% of students. In urban areas like Newham, white British children are just 5% of the school population. This isn't inherently problematic — Renan rejected ethnic essentialism — but when combined with limited integration, it fragments the "shared efforts and sufferings" that bind a nation. Tate notes the UK's Muslim population at 6% today, projected to reach 10% by 2050 and potentially 20% by 2100 under current trends. More established projections from Pew Research estimate 13 million Muslims by 2050 (about 16-17% of the population in a medium-migration scenario), though local concentrations (e.g., Birmingham potentially 52% Muslim by 2050) could create parallel cultural enclaves. If these groups prioritise global identities like the Ummah over national ones, as Tate suggests in examples of sharia councils or segregated events, the common historical tapestry unravels.

The Fading Daily Plebiscite

Renan's second element — a continual consent to shared life — is equally threatened. Tate critiques multiculturalism for promoting "plurally monocultural" societies, where cohesion suffers. This aligns with broader trends: white British people, currently 73% of the population, are projected to become a minority by 2063, according to political scientist Matthew Goodwin's analysis, driven by immigration and differential birth rates. By 2050, this group could drop to 57%, with the foreign-born and their children comprising over half the populace. Such rapid shifts, unprecedented since the Roman Empire's fall as Tate notes, challenge the "daily plebiscite." When whole city districts feel culturally alien — run by leaders prioritising religious over national loyalties — the mutual consent frays.

Cultural signals amplify this. Tate references a report showing over 50% of UK TV adverts featuring black people, despite them being only 4% of the population (3.3% in England and Wales per the 2021 census, closer to 4.2% including mixed heritage). This over-representation, while aimed at inclusivity, can feel like a preview of demographic futures, alienating those who see it as erasing traditional English imagery. Progressive elites, as Tate argues, prioritise minority rights and identities (e.g., race, sexuality) over national unity, labelling dissent as "racist" — a tactic that stifles the debate needed for renewal.

What "Being English" Might Mean by 2050 and Beyond

If trends continue unchecked, Englishness could indeed become "meaningless," as Tate fears — a diluted label in a deconstructed nation of competing heritages. By mid-century, England might resemble a patchwork of semi-autonomous communities: urban enclaves with strong non-European cultural ties, rural holdouts clinging to folk traditions, and a cosmopolitan elite detached from both. National symbols like the St. George's Cross could evoke nostalgia or controversy rather than unity, with "English" reduced to a bureaucratic category on forms, devoid of Renan's spiritual depth. Pride in figures like Shakespeare, Churchill, or the Magna Carta might persist in niches, but for many, loyalties could shift to global tribes — religious, ethnic, or ideological — making the nation a mere customs union, as Renan dismissed.

Yet, this isn't predestined. Renan emphasised human agency: nations are fragile but renewable through effort. A pivot toward strict immigration controls (e.g., near-zero from culturally distant sources), aggressive integration policies (mandatory language/civics education, curbs on parallel legal systems), and curricula celebrating national history could rebuild cohesion. Historical precedents exist — post-WWII Britain absorbed immigrants while maintaining core identity. But as Tate doubts, finding political will and implementers amid elite resistance seems unlikely. Responses like The Independent's "Who cares?" to Goodwin's projections reflect a blasé globalism that accelerates the slide.

In sum, the future of being English hinges on reclaiming Renan's pillars. Without it, the term risks becoming a hollow echo in a diverse but divided archipelago, where "nation" yields to a transactional multiculturalism, then inevitable social collapse.

https://dailysceptic.org/2025/11/05/what-will-it-mean-in-the-future-to-be-english/