Japan's experience with COVID-19 vaccination stands out globally. With one of the highest per capita rates of mRNA vaccine doses, averaging 3.6 doses per person as of March 2024, surpassing most nations in mRNA uptake, the country initially managed the pandemic effectively in its early phases. However, the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021 triggered a sharp rise in infections, despite over 80% vaccination coverage. This was followed by a notable surge in excess deaths in 2022 and 2023, exceeding 1,400 per million population, roughly three times the U.S. rate, while only about 10% of these were officially attributed to COVID-19 itself. These trends have sparked urgent questions about potential links to repeated vaccinations, alongside other factors like healthcare strains and demographics. Below, I'll break down the key data, hypotheses, and ongoing debates.
Excess deaths refer to fatalities above historical averages, adjusted for population changes. Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) tracks this closely, and 2022–2023 saw peaks not fully explained by reported COVID cases.
Japan's compensation system for vaccine injuries further underscores concerns: As of November 2024, the government approved payouts for 8,432 health harms, including 903 deaths, figures that eclipse all prior vaccination-related claims over the last 47 years combined. These include cases in younger demographics, such as a fatal multi-organ inflammation in a 14-year-old girl post-vaccination.
A large-scale ecological study of ~18 million vaccinated individuals (VENUS study, 2023–2024 data) found no excess mortality in unvaccinated cohorts, but a 4.5-fold higher rate among the vaccinated, peaking 90–120 days post-dose. Risks escalated with boosters: two doses correlated with 5x higher mortality vs. unvaccinated; three+ doses amplified this further. Wastewater surveillance supports chronic SARS-CoV-2 persistence in intestines among some vaccinated, potentially evading nasal tests.
The Kakeya et al. opinion piece in JMA Journal (2025), hypothesises vaccine-related mechanisms, but explicitly calls for more research, as causation remains unproven. It outlines three main ideas, balanced against counter-evidence:
1.Adverse Reactions to mRNA Vaccines:
oClaims: Lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) and spike protein overproduction may trigger myocarditis, clotting, autoimmune issues, and estrogen-receptor-linked cancers (e.g., breast, ovarian ↑ since 2021). UK data shows post-vaccination cardiovascular deaths rose while respiratory ones fell. Spike protein's nuclear localisation could exacerbate this.
oEvidence Strength: Case reports and temporal correlations exist (e.g., 70% of early post-vax deaths cardiovascular). However, global meta-analyses (e.g., Qatar 2022 review of 30-day post-vax deaths) find no overall mortality increase; rare events like myocarditis are <1/100,000 and mostly mild.
oCounter: Fact-checks note the Kakeya paper is an "opinion," not empirical data linking vaccines directly to the excess surge, misrepresentations claim it "proves" an "explosion" in vax deaths, which it doesn't.
2.Immunosuppression and Chronic Infection:
oClaims: Boosters may shift immunity toward IgG4 antibodies and regulatory T-cells, tolerating persistent virus in gut/lungs, leading to chronic issues and non-COVID deaths syncing with infection waves. Early studies showed no viral load reduction in breakthrough cases.
oEvidence Strength: Supported by wastewater data and some Omicron-era studies showing waning transmission protection. Explains why excess non-COVID deaths persisted post-2023 policy shifts easing hospital burdens.
oCounter: Excess deaths align more with Omicron waves than vax timelines. Aging (Japan's median age: 49) and care delays explain ~60% of non-COVID rises.
3.COVID-19 Underdiagnosis and System Strain:
oClaims: Untested/misclassified COVID deaths + overwhelmed hospitals (pre-2023) inflated non-COVID excess.
oEvidence Strength: Dominant explanation in MHLW and WHO reports; 2023 dips in vax rates correlated with stable mortality, not spikes.
oCounter: Only 10–15% official COVID attribution leaves a gap; policy changes didn't curb excess, suggesting multifactorial causes.
Broader Context and Debates
Global Parallels: Similar excess patterns in high-vax nations (e.g., UK cardiovascular shifts) fuel speculation, but experts like Prof. Paul Hunter (U. East Anglia) attribute spikes to virus waves, not vaccines, vaccinated groups had lower age-adjusted death rates. Former CDC Director Robert Redfield (quoted in the paper) affirms vaccines saved vulnerable lives but questions benefits for low-risk youth, citing spike protein persistence.
Data Gaps: Japanese authorities faced criticism for misclassifying vaccinated cases as "unvaccinated" early on, revealing equal/slightly higher infection risks post-vax. Calls for transparency grow, especially with Japan's dose variability (0–8+ per person).
This isn't settled science, the Kakeya authors emphasise elucidation over alarmism, urging large-scale studies on dose-response effects. Still, this is but one more nail in the COVIDvax coffin.
https://makisw.substack.com/p/news-japan-confirms-over-600000-citizens