This is not a fellow whom I agree with much at all, but it is worth quoting out of curiosity about how the other side thinks. Jared Diamond, has a new book, Upheaval (2019), which I have not read, and do not intend to read. No need to, the plot is easy to work out. After writing about how nations collapse from environmental overshoot, but never from ethno-racial overshoot, now his focus is on how a selected number of nations have recovered, and this process is like how individuals recover from psychological illnesses, post-World War II Japan being one example discussed.
“Today, the risk that we’re facing is not of societies collapsing one by one, but because of globalization, the risk we are facing is of the collapse of the whole world. How likely do you think that is? That the whole network of civilization would collapse? I would estimate the chances are about 49 percent that the world as we know it will collapse by about 2050. I’ll be dead by then but my kids will be, what? Sixty-three years old in 2050. So, this is a subject of much practical interest to me. At the rate we’re going now, resources that are essential for complex societies are being managed unsustainably. Fisheries around the world, most fisheries are being managed unsustainably, and they’re getting depleted. Farms around the world, most farms are being managed unsustainably. Soil, topsoil around the world. Fresh water around the world is being managed unsustainably. With all these things, at the rate we’re going now, we can carry on with our present unsustainable use for a few decades, and by around 2050 we won’t be able to continue it any longer. Which means that by 2050 either we’ve figured out a sustainable course, or it’ll be too late.”